The property boom has got bigger: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

EXPERT OBSERVER

It didn’t seem possible that the extraordinary national property boom I recorded in the Autumn edition of the Price Predictor Index three months ago could get any bigger. But it has.

The new Winter 2021 edition of The Price Predictor Index records further uplift in sales activity and growing numbers of suburbs and towns with increases.

Other markets have matched or almost matched the very high levels we recorded three months ago.

The biggest improver is Melbourne, where the number of suburbs with rising sales activity has been 32 25 127 196 in the past four quarters (NOTE: the data in this report pre-dates the latest lockdown of late May/early June).

Brisbane has continued the exponential rise in its market: over the past 12 months, the number of suburbs with rising sales volumes quarter by quarter has been 28, 56, 124, 141.

Adelaide is another notable improver, with quarterly results of 52, 62, 93, 104 suburbs with upwardly-mobile markets.

Regional markets continue to be buoyant, with further improvement in Regional Victoria (27, 35, 86, 88) and Regional WA (15, 27, 34, 37).

The national leader in terms of the percentage of locations with rising sales activity is Regional South Australia - 79% of its towns are rising. It’s surprising that a market that few Australian investors would ever consider is actually a national leader.

Next best in the nation is Melbourne (72%), followed by Regional WA (69%), Regional Queensland (65%), Brisbane (64%), Regional Victoria (64%) and Regional NSW (61%).

This data confirms just how strong regional market jurisdictions have been – and will continue to be, in most cases.

But it’s not all a story of relentless growth - some markets are showing signs of tapering off.

The Sunshine Coast, which we named as our National Growth Star in the Autumn edition of the Price Predictor Index three months ago, has plateau-ed a little. It remains a very strong market with many growth suburbs and towns, and prices continuing to soar.

It’s a similar scenario for the Central Coast of NSW and also Newcastle. Both remain busy markets with notable price uplift, but the number of locations with rising sales activity has tapered a little in this latest survey.

Canberra appears to have reached a peak in its market - in this survey I have found that only 24% of its suburbs have rising momentum in sales.

However, I have observed in the recent past that markets which appeared to have peaked have had resurgences. Examples include Geelong and Ballarat in Regional Victoria, where markets had faded somewhat after several years of growth, but experienced a second wave of demand out of Melbourne in the past six months.

The most startling data revealed in this report, at a time when incredible figures are the norm, is the major increase in median prices in the latest quarter in so many locations across Australia.

Hundreds of towns and suburbs have seen median price rises of more than 10%, uplift that would be impressive over 12 months, but this is the increase in just three months.

There are examples pretty much everywhere around Australia, across all price ranges and for apartments as well as houses. Millionaire enclaves, middle-ring areas, affordable suburbs, major regional centres and small country towns - they’re all part of the trend of ridiculous rises in prices.

Gerringong NSW from $890,000 to $995,000; Noosa Heads QLD from $1,150,000 to $1,400,000; Bronte NSW from $3,400,000 to $3,890,000; Rye VIC from $720,000 to $810,000; Brighton VIC from $2,800,000 to $2,985,000; Cable Beach WA from $465,000 to $540,000; Port Elliot SA from $495,000 to $565,000; Fullarton SA from $945,000 to $1,105,000 - these are among myriad examples of median house price rises in just three months.

One of greatest drivers of this phenomenon is big-city residents buying in the small cities and in regional areas. Sydney and Melbourne people are looking online, observing how cheap the prices are compared to their neighbourhoods and making a phone call to buy sight-unseen.

In some cases, buyers are behaving foolishly, paying too much and/or buying in the wrong places. They think they’re getting a bargain but often they are paying well above local values - or they’re buying in places which lack the intrinsic drivers for long-term capital growth.

Even in a raging boom, buyers need to be sensible, choosing their locations well and paying prices in line with local market values.