The global bond fund giant PIMCO has suggested that falling interest rates and rising house prices had the potential to drive a more irrational response with a 'herd mentality' that assumed continued capital price appreciation.
Based on the fear of missing out, PIMCO portfolio manager Aaditya Thakur said there was a risk that people build unrealistic and unsustainable expectations that house prices could continue to rise given prevailing conditions.
"If you think about why people lever up its because they expect further income or price appreciation or a combination of both, but if they are extrapolating from past history, it might not be a true reflection of future productivity of the asset," she told The Australian Financial Review after issuance of her co-authored report.
PIMCO noted Australian household debt to net worth had increased from below 15 per cent in the early 90s to a peak to almost 30 per cent in 2009 - and now remained above 25%.
PIMCO, which manages $US1.6 trillion of assets globally and $35 billion in Australia, completed the research paper to understand the drivers of household borrowing decisions.
The fund's thesis is of a "new neutral" which suggested Australian interest rates would be held lower for longer by a number of factors.
Australians being "irrationally exuberant" by borrowing too much to invest in housing, exposed the economy to financial shocks, global bond fund giant PIMCO tipped.
The PIMCO researchers found that Australians' decision to borrow was driven by falling interest rates and rising house prices – not economic fundamentals that reflect the health of the economy like employment.
The world's biggest bond investor said Australians appeared to be "trigger happy" about debt – responding far quicker than others to changes in interest rates and asset prices.
PIMCO says they start borrowing more after only six months of increases in house prices compared with a year in the US.
