The higher the building the greater the fall: Edwin Almeida

In my previous article "Reaching For The Skies" I eluded to the reasons why some of the towers being built in Sydney will fall. Not in a literal sense but more so from an economic point of view.

What will ignite the primer to set off the economic property meltdown?

I believe the major part of the answer can be found amongst all the lies international investors are being told. The lies that have attracted foreign investors to the glittery shores of Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne. Like lambs to the developers feasting tables.

Under-supply, huge demand for rental accommodation and the fattest lie could well be that we still hold global recognition on the best standards for building and construction.Yeah right!! and pigs fly.

Return On Investment

The first lie being told and promoted to predominantly Chinese investors is; whatever we build, they will be occupied at a high yielding return. Simply, there will be a high rental return on the amount of money invested. An argument highly supported by the promoters of tales that persuaded many to believe stories of, under-supply due to substantial population growth. We build it, you buy it and we will fill them.

Nonetheless, investors bought and continue to buy. To sweeten the deal, rental guarantees were introduced. The 12 month rental guarantees given to investors in the past, are no longer sustainable due to increased property prices.

To accommodate for the now non attractive 12 month guarantees, we have seen a shift from the 12 month guarantees, to offerings of up to 3 years by some property marketing companies. An increase of time to the guarantee, to account for the rising cost of the property in order to keep feeding the investor’s greed and maintain the illusion of high performing returns.

The first proposition, may have been true in part and in the past. However, the tide has now turned due to the word being spread about high yielding returns, therefore, fueling a greater frenzy of speculative buyers.

An increase of buyers has led to greater demands to build more apartments, and now we have gone past saturation point. It’s certainly being felt in Brisbane, with more than 30,000 apartments about to be completed in the next 12 months.

Sydney, although a little slower, is by all means not too far behind. The only difference is the QLD market is mainly fueled by local investors: SMSF’s, first time mum-dad investors that attended wealth seminars and by Sydneysiders that have made small fortunes with new realized equity in their homes. Yes, not to mention the foreign investor.

Two outcomes have emerged; the first, over supply of property which is now starting to create concerns among property management teams as rental yields fall. The second, evidenced by our own property management teams and other office’s is the increase in percentage vacancy rates.

Get Rich Quick Schemes

The get rich quick schemes seemed to run at all levels. From the Marketing Agents to the developers to even the investors themselves.

The Marketing Agents, and I purposely avoid in calling these companies Real Estate Agencies, are receiving up to 10% or close to $50,000-$60,000 commissions on sales of $700,000 properties. These exuberant commissions encourages these agencies to exploit the international investor. Their own mates, family and friends.

The Investors on the other hand, have made some serious money. The ones that got in early that is. The ones that bought in markets where the values only reached $600,000 at the time and they were receiving $550/week rentals.

The newbies however, are now coming in to the same markets and with price tags of $850,000 – Hey stupid! The rents are still $550/week.

The developers, for the purpose of this article I will only concentrate on the NEW BREED (NB) of developers. The NB are also international investors that have no history in construction but have found a way to milk the system at a higher level. They have bought with them so much uncertainty and low level workmanship, it is staggering how some of their buildings pass certification requirements.

Unfortunately some of our local developers have been fanning the flames of this hot property market. Can you blame them? After all, they are running a business. Part of me does and another part of me doesn’t blame them. The part that does, is the side that questions the ethics around "marketing fees" to entice the International Investor by the Property Marketing Companies. Along with this, is the commissions paid to financial planners and the finance industry to also market some projects.

What will level this market will be no different to what we saw 10 years ago: oversupply, vacancy rates on high projections and the ongoing costs to investors to repair bad workmanship. Again I say, the only difference is; the towers are higher, deeper and bulkier. The higher they build, the greater the fall.

EDWIN ALMEIDA is licensee in charge of Just Think Real Estate.

He is also the creator of Oz Real Estate.TV and a presenter for propertyinvestingvault.com.