Strong run of new real estate stock expected for Mosman, Cremorne and Neutral Bay in lead-up to federal election: Robert Simeon
It should be quite obvious by now that most Australians would agree that calling an election six months out has been nothing less than a diabolical economic disaster. On a daily basis consumers are being hit with an avalanche of misinformation which is paralysing consumer confidence within the Australian economy.
There is no better example than the relevance battle as newspapers morph their business models into the more consumer preferred online models. Newspapers will eventually cease Monday to Friday and move to the re-branded weekend editions with online publications broadcasting the working week.
A brand new environment that is fraught with danger given the survival model is based entirely on convincing investors these media initiatives will entice investors and pay wall subscribers. Media rivals facing a brave new world which is a topic I find quite fascinating given if the pay wall strategies fail (which I think they will) the respective brands’ consumer integrity will collapse.
Online technologies are the new consumer addiction – just look at the Samsung vs Apple battle for example where it is abundantly clear that consumer communication is changing on a daily basis.
Last week we read jobless rate tipped to hit 10-year high yet ninety minutes later we learn that the frequently compiled jobless rate went down to 5.5%. What we have today is a plethora of bad news which ends up contradicting itself – no better example than Western Australia being in recession (the week before last) only to see a correction a few hours later that it was not in recession.
Having said that I agree what Charlie Aitken wrote last week that – “what we need to put in context is that the East Coast of Australia has been in a “feels like” recession for five years.’’
I blame the federal government for this given in the March Quarter 2013 CEO Pulse – the nation’s top chief executives’ scorecard for the government’s performance in managing the economy was down to 2.7 out of 10, which was the second lowest point it has been since Business Spectator began CEO Pulse in 2010. The lowest rating was 2.6 in Quarter 3, 2011.
“The World’s Greatest Treasurer” climbed onto his soapbox this week Swan slams recession talk which was an understandable rebuke given in the case of the Australian economy he is to wield the ‘Midas Touch’. The problem for Australia’s treasurer is that business confidence stuck in a rut with the National Australia Bank business conditions index for May posting a minus 4 which was up from the minus 6 in April – despite a falling Australian dollar with record low interest rates.
Jessica Irvine filed a fantastic article on Business Spectator – Forty-three ways to boost productivity an amazing critique of the Australian business economy.
The fascination with the Mosman market continues with houses and apartment listings continuing their downward spiral in terms of available properties. These same results are being mirrored in Cremorne and NEUTRAL BAY listings. For those hoping for a post-election property bonanza you should consider this. At this stage the federal election is set for September 14 – on September 20 NSW goes into school holidays which conclude on October 9 so we expect a strong run of new stock in the lead-up to the election with vendors punting on a change of government.
Source: Australian Property Monitors
MOSMAN – 2088
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 94
• Number of houses on the market last week – 81
• Number of houses on the market this week – 76
• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 89
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 59
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 60
CREMORNE – 2090
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 16
• Number of houses on the market last week – 8
• Number of houses on the market this week – 9
• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 19
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 10
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 9
NEUTRAL BAY – 2089
• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 17
• Number of houses on the market last week – 12
• Number of houses on the market this week – 13
• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 54
• Number of apartments on the market last week – 32
• Number of apartments on the market this week – 34
Surprise, surprise! For the financial year 2010/11 there was a $39 billion claim by Australian landlords in deductions which was an 18% increase on the previous financial year.
Hence an Australian Taxation Office – crackdown on landlords after surge in claims.
Parliament sits for the final time next week until the election – I (like many others) expect a spill with another prime minister being appointed – given the previous form guide this will happen next Wednesday night where the Governor General’s son-in-law will be the union chosen one.
The real estate industry will be hoping he calls an August 3 or 10 election.
Robert Simeon is a director of Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. He has also been writing real estate blog Virtual Realty News since 2000. The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.
