Retail property value declines to slow in 2022: NAB
The sentiment around retail property is still the weakest in NAB's Q3 Commercial Property Survey.
Confidence in the retail market is still -71, followed by CBD hotels, -60, and office, -53.
And there doesn't look to be a big spike if Australia continues to control the COVID-19 pandemic as well as any other nation.
The 12 month confidence still has retail at -71, and it expects office to be -63.
The two year measure was also broadly unchanged at near record lows in both sectors (Retail -47; Office -40).
Over the next 12 months, rents are expected to fall -6.2 per cent in retail.
The South Australia and Northern Territory are set to suffer the most, with around -9 per cent declines.
Over-supply is expected to persist in retail in all states in the next 1-5 years, bar VIC (“neutral” in 5 years).
Overall Retail vacancy remained at a near survey high at 8.8 per cent in Q3, despite improvement in NSW (7.7 per cent vs. 9.7 per cent in Q2).
Overall vacancy is expected to climb to 9.3 per cent next year, before easing to 8.2 per cent in two years’ time, with all states passing through their expected peak.
