If there's a housing shortage, where's the rental growth?
Once again we need to ask the question: where in this nation of "chronic housing shortages" is the rental growth?
The latest Rental Report from Domain Group records virtually no rental growth in the capital cities in the September quarter. And, in annual terms, rental performance ranges from weak to nothing to negative.
The report covers the rental market for houses and for apartments in each of the eight capital cities. That's 16 rental markets in total, and in the past 12 months half of them have recorded falling rents or no growth.
The best performance in an Australian capital city is in Hobart, according to these figures, with a 4% rise in the median asking rent for units and a 3.3% rise for houses. That's a very anemic result, but it's the best in the nation apparently.
If you believe the constant rhetoric from the developer lobby, Sydney has the nation's most serious shortage of housing – yet in the September Quarter the median rent for houses did not change and the median rent for apartments fell 1%.
In annual terms, house rents in Sydney have grown a meagre 2% and apartments rents 3.1%.
The position in all the other capital cities is weaker than that.
Perth's rents have dropped around 6% in annual terms for both houses and apartments. In Canberra, the median rent for apartments is down 5% and for houses it's dropped 2.7%.
Darwin is down 2.9% (houses) and 1.8% (apartments).
Overall it's a very pallid performance and one that's inconsistent with claims of "a chronic housing shortage crisis", one that apparently demands urgent action from government.
The federal inquiry into the non-existent housing affordability problem, the one that is based on an Australian Bureau of Statistics miscount of first-home buyer numbers, is being fed a series of wish lists from groups representing builders and developers.
The common theme is that if you give developers everything they've ever wanted, they'll go away and build lots of dwellings and affordability will be miraculously transformed.
Economists, journalists and other commentators across Australia have bought the "chronic shortage" storyline and so it's accepted as fact by many people.
But there's a lack of evidence to support the idea and plenty of data that suggests the claim is nonsense – including rental performance.
The performance of rents has been so poor, yields have fallen in virtually every capital city market in the past 12 months. Only Hobart has managed to lift rental returns.
I continue to believe that the most pressing issue for markets around Australia is the opposite one, one of emerging over-supply in key locations.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au. You can email him or contact him on twitter.
