Australia's trade account, surplus elevated at a near record high: Andrew Hanlan
In the month of March, the import bill declined by $0.5bn, down by 1.5%, to $34.4bn. Weakness in the month was driven by volatility in transport equipment (both capital and consumer) - stripping this out, imports rose by 0.7% in March.
The export detail remains volatile, with temporary supply disruptions a factor. In the month of March, metal ores slumped by $1.2bn, largely as anticipated, as iron ore shipments were delayed by Cyclone Veronica. Coal exports rose by $0.8bn, on a rebound in volumes, while gold fell back by $0.6bn, off a high base.
For the March quarter, the ABS advise that the trade surplus widened to $14.2bn from $8.6bn in Q4, an improvement of $5.6bn.
Click here to enlarge:
Key to this development was higher commodity prices, which boosted export earnings. The terms of trade increased in the order of 3% in the quarter, we estimate.
Export earnings in Q1 rose by a little over 3.5%, while the import bill actually shrank, down by 1.4%.
Our preliminary calculations suggest that: export volumes expanded modestly in the quarter, up by almost 0.5%, with
a sharp rebound in gold off a low base a key positive; and imports were soft in the quarter, contracting by almost 1.5%, against the backdrop of patchy domestic demand across the private sector.
Click here to enlarge:
On these preliminary calculations, real net exports likely added to activity in Q1, potentially in the order of 0.3ppts to 0.4ppts. This is an upside surprise to our forecast of +0.1ppt – albeit largely driven by falling imports (a sign of domestic weakness) rather than by strength in exports.
Such an outcome represents a turnaround from the December quarter 2018, when net exports subtracted 0.2ppts from activity as export volumes declined by 0.7%, dented by the impact of the drought and temporary disruptions in the resources sector.
Click here to enlarge:
Key points:
•In March, the trade surplus remained elevated at $4.9bn, only down a little from a record high of $5.1bn for February (revised up from $4.9bn).
•The March outcome exceeded expectations (market median $4.5bn and Westpac $4.2bn).
•Imports were the main surprise, falling by a further 1.5%, rather than rebounding by 1.0% as we anticipated.
•Exports fell but by somewhat more than anticipated, down by 1.8% v's a forecast -0.6%
•For the March quarter, the ABS advise that the trade surplus widened to $14.2bn from $8.6bn in Q4, an improvement of $5.6bn.
Andrew Hanlan is senior economist for Westpac and can be contacted here.
