Tax-free capital gains in trading property are for the moment a thing of the past: Robert Simeon

I was reading an article last week in Technology Spectator – Going native in search of an online ad antidote which immediately had me thinking. “They say that for change to occur in an industry or an organisation three things must happen.”

“One, the organisation or industry must be dissatisfied with the current conditions. Two, an appropriate alternative must exist. Three, the organisation or industry must believe in their capabilities to implement this alternative.”

My mind went back the ‘’recession we had to have” in the early 1990s, the real estate industry was severely impacted due to our inability to communicate because of the high cost of print advertising. The birth of the online revolution (internet) in the mid-1990s has significantly changed how we communicate today, we now promote our businesses and products much more cost effectively through this online medium. Some businesses adopted this change with more vigour and passion, like most things there are the leaders and the followers.

So it should not be that disconcerting to then read that Saul Eslake joins the recessionista where he put the odds of Australia slipping into recession in the second half of 2015 at 25%, with an expectation that gross domestic product will rise one per cent in 2015 and shrink 0.1% the following year.

Australia not heading into recession, says Clyne “business confidence remained low, with companies holding back investment plans. One bright spot remains consumer confidence which was holding up. “Consumer confidence is less of a problem than business confidence,” Mr Clyne said.“Generally there is always an uptick in consumer confidence after an election”. “Because by definition the party that wins, most people voted for and they feel good about the outcome.”

I guess having Australia’s longest ever election is only compounding the problem. As I have written on many occasions the Australian economy is recalibrating as Aust dollar drops below 93 cents which then brought about an immediate warning prices to soar as dollar falls, economists and retailers warn the days of cheap overseas travel and attractive online prices are over. Petrol, whitegoods and electronic equipment prices are expected to rise by up to 10%. I’m not sure what this will do for consumer confidence?

Dollar’s decline sends a clear warning – “World markets are warning Australians that the glory days are over and that we must start the painful adjustment process. The good news is that in many diverse areas Australians are showing signs that they are prepared to adapt.” Adapting is the key ingredient as our economy changes although it would come as no surprise if the mining industry experienced a turn-around following the election of a new government.

Overvalued, unaffordable property keeping first-home buyers on the sidelines: QBE LMI survey. I must admit I have never been a fan of these grants and I remember an analogy that it is like “throwing lollies onto a highway”. What we are seeing within the property industry is a severe shortage of stock, in Mosman, Cremorne and Neutral Bay there are just 87 houses on the market and 96 apartments. These figures are almost 50% down on previous years and the markets remain in conservative mode although the market up to $2.500 million is very strong.

One of the obvious reasons as to why the property markets have plateaued is that unlike previous years, capital appreciation in property no longer exists. Fundamentally, consumers were all over property simply because prices were constantly increasing where today the markets (houses especially) have been in a reverse swing. This also means that the previous tax-free capital gains in trading property are for the moment a thing of the past.

That’s not to say that it won’t happen again, our property markets are just taking their time adapting to the new market conditions. The positive is that vendors are not panicking, this is obvious when analysing the stock levels which continue to drop – although it should be noted that this is a seasonal transformation.

Source: Australian Property Monitors

MOSMAN – 2088

• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 85

• Number of houses on the market last week – 76

• Number of houses on the market this week – 71

• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 89

• Number of apartments on the market last week – 60

• Number of apartments on the market this week – 56

CREMORNE – 2090

• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 14

• Number of houses on the market last week – 9

• Number of houses on the market this week – 7

• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 20

• Number of apartments on the market last week – 9

• Number of apartments on the market this week – 7

Neutral Bay – 2089

• Number of houses on the market this time 2012 – 17

• Number of houses on the market last week – 13

• Number of houses on the market this week – 9

• Number of apartments on the market this time 2012 – 50

• Number of apartments on the market last week – 34

• Number of apartments on the market this week – 33

Last week, I predicted a political spill (I was a week ahead of myself) I still believe it will happen during the course of the week.

When we enter the colder months it is the perfect time to roll-out new online platforms and get rid of all the associated bugs before the market heats-up again and the peak selling markets reappear. It is all about adapting to new market conditions and having the latest and best technologies behind your brand; it is definitely the way to go.

Robert Simeon is a director of Richardson  Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. He has also been writing real estate blog Virtual Realty News since 2000. The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.