Sydney prices to fall: HSBC's bubble warning
Sydney's prices are set to fall when interest rates rise again, predicts HSBC Australia chief economist Paul Bloxham.
HSBC predicts that Sydney's house prices could drop by 2% in 2016 after its third consecutive strong year forecast for 2015. It would happen after the official cash rate moved from a forecast 2% this year to an average 2.75% in 2016.
He also warns that Sydney's market is "at risk of a bubble", saying the current level of growth in Sydney home prices is unsustainable and "likely to be met with declines in future years, when interest rates do begin to rise".
Click on charts to open in new window.
"A signal of the growing risk of over-inflation in the Sydney market is the high level of investor demand," Bloxham explains.
"Housing loan approvals for investors currently account for a record high share of new loan approvals in New South Wales." (See chart below).
"The high involvement of investors suggests that there is a speculative dynamic in the Sydney market that may be worrisome," said Bloxham.
"Investors are typically seeking capital gains, rather than rental yield, as Australia's tax system favours capital gains.
"Investors themselves tend to be lower risk borrowers, as they typically have equity in another owner-occupied property and have lower loan-to-valuation ratios than first home buyers.
"In this way, it is not clear that investor involvement is leading to increased financial system risk. However, it does seem likely that increased investor activity is driving housing prices to rise faster than fundamental factors suggest they should in the Sydney market."
HSBC predicts that Sydney's house prices could drop by 2% in 2016 after 9% to 10% growth in 2015, its third strong consecutive year.
Note: HSBC's forecasts assume their cash rate predictions for 2016.
In the latest HSBC Downunder Digest, which is headlined "Australia's housing boom may get bubbly", Bloxham calls interest rates "the single most important determinant of housing price dynamics in Australia".
However, he notes that "monetary policy is being pushed to its extremes" with the latest rate cut to a record low 2.25% by the Reserve Bank, with the market anticipating another rate cut.
Of the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority's (APRA) decision to tighten mortgage lending guidelines in December, Bloxham observes that "it is unusual in Australia for prudential policy and interest rate settings to be working in opposite directions".
Despite his concerns regarding a potential bubble in Sydney's market, Bloxham does not believe there is a national housing bubble, citing strong fundamental reasons for growth, including low housing supply, well allocated housing debt low urban density and high demand for property.
"However, we do see that the longer housing prices continue to increase faster than household incomes, the greater the chance a bubble could inflate." (See chart below).
"We are also starting to see pockets of the market where bubbles could be forming, given that interest rates have now been low for quite some time," warns Bloxham.
All charts sourced from HSBC.
