80 percent chance there will be no property crash: JP Morgan
Melbourne and Sydney housing prices face a one-in-five risk of price correction, with JP Morgan saying there's little chance of a correction in the next five years.
It ranks as 19% for Melbourne and 18% for Sydney, JP Morgan economist Henry St John said after prices have been rising faster against wages.
The chance of steep price falls in Brisbane or Adelaide is rated at 8%, while the odds of a further 15%-plus slide in Perth prices is 7%.
The ABC advised St John arrived at his estimates by examining not only absolute price growth but also price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios to calculate how far out of whack the current real estate market is with historical averages.
"The fact that those valuation ratios in Melbourne haven't ever really had a deep pull-back means price gains have persistently dominated income and rental rate growth for a very long history," St John said.
This time last year the JP Morgan team forecast "major risks" for the listed property companies in Brisbane and Melbourne apartment settlements during 2017, which did not happen.
