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Melbourne One - 618 Lonsdale Street, Melbourne

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its updated regional population growth figures on Wednesday and at 14,114 people per square kilometre, the Melbourne CBD sits as the second most densely populated area of the country behind Pyrmont-Ultimo in Sydney (15,117 people per square kilometre) .

Based on development underway and in the pipeline - in the sheer number of projects and the size of them - the Melbourne CBD is likely to be in pole position within 12-24 months.

The density statistics are based on the ABS' <a href="http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/88F6A0EDEB8879C0CA257801000C64D9">"SA2</a>" regions and the Melbourne CBD SA2 area is bounded by the Yarra, Flinders Street, Spring Street, Victoria Street, Peel/William Street, La Trobe Street and Spencer Street (refer to the lead image above).

The merits of eventually being the most densely populated part of Australia - using the ABS methodology - are likely to be contested, however the oncoming ascension to the premier position is notable given the state of affairs in Melbourne's CBD 30 years ago.

I wonder if the City of Melbourne would have thought it possible in the 1980s that their heartland was to one day become the country's most densely populated?

We've come a long way since the early days of postcode 3000.

On June 30th 2015, the population of Melbourne's CBD stood at 33,433 according to the ABS data and the area bounded by the streets and river mentioned above measures 2.4 square kilometres.

Looking ahead over the next five to ten years it's not going to be a gradual ascension to the top of the ABS' SA2 density league tables, it's more likely to be akin to a violent, out-of-control steamroller driven by an angry mob that is going to set the bar incredibly high.

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/collins_st_5pm_ngv.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="John Brack's &quot;Collins Street, 5pm&quot; painted in 1955. Image via NGV"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="408" src="/sites/urban.melbourne/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/collins_st_5pm_ngv.jpg?itok=EFu9Znqn" title="John Brack's &quot;Collins Street, 5pm&quot; painted in 1955. Image via NGV" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>John Brack's "Collins Street, 5pm" painted in 1955. Image via <a href="http://www.ngv.vic.gov.au/explore/collection/work/3161/">NGV</a></figcaption></figure>Consider the following.

We're tracking 68 residential, student accommodation or mixed-use projects on the Urban.com.au Project Database located within the Melbourne SA2 and they have a combined 27,000-30,000 dwellings.

18 of the projects are currently under construction which together will produce 6000-7000 dwellings. According to the <a href="http://melbournepopulation.geografia.com.au/areas/CLSA01">City of Melbourne</a>, the average household size in the CBD standas at 1.91 and is forecast to decrease to 1.44 over the longer term.

The number of dwellings under construction could equate to a further 8500 to 10,000 new residents when using the longer-term household size forecast, potentially boosting the total population to 42,000-43,500 and increasing the population density of 17,500-18,125.

11 projects have a sales campaign underway and that, in total, is another 5000 dwellings in the pipeline with the potential to provide space for 7,200 new residents.

The remaining 39 projects being assessed by council or the Minister and those that are already approved total 16,000-18,000 dwellings; creating enough living space for 23,000-26,000 new Melburnists.

Even if only half the projects in the pipeline - everything except what's currently under construction - were to eventually be built and tenanted, that's could equate to a further 15,000-17,000 new Melbourne CBD residents.

Doubling the population and therefore the population density of Melbourne's CBD over the next 5-10 years? It's very much realistic and the numbers above broadly correlate with the <a href="http://melbournepopulation.geografia.com.au/areas/CLSA01">City of Melbourne's own forecast</a>.

In ten years the population density of Melbourne's CBD is forecast to between 26,000 and 27,000 people per square kilometre, comparable with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10th_arrondissement_of_Paris">10th</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/14th_arrondissement_of_Paris">14th</a> arrondissements of Paris, and similar to the projections for the 'half-sized' Fishermans Bend based on <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/fishermans-bend-to-become-australias-most-densely-populated-area">public domain information from 2013</a>.

That's what I meant by it's going to be violent ascension above all other national peers. No wonder the Lord Mayor was keen to see 447 Collins and its new green space approved.
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Alastair Taylor

Melbourne CBD on course to be the most densely populated area in Australia

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2015 shapes as a pivotal year for Central Equity with three current sizebale planning applications for the Southbank-based developer set to underpin their intentions for the coming years. After highlighting <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/central-equity-breaks-the-mould-71-87-city-road-southbank">71-87 City Road during October</a>, the wraps are now off 268-274 City Road on Southbank and 556-558 Lonsdale Street within Melbourne's CBD.

The latter two if delivered in their initial form would have a joint development value approaching $350 million. Coupled with 71-87 City Road the three proposals which are still before the Minister for Planning and DELWP would all comfortably surpass the 200 metre height benchmark, a first for Central Equity which has for years elected to stick with towers of lesser height.

While the towers will almost invariably be subject to design refinements as they pass through the planning process, they do represent Central Equity's next tranche of high density projects. In recent years Central Equity like many other developers in the Melbourne apartment market has enjoyed robust demand for its product which has seen a handful of their projects sell heavily in next to no time.

The towers at planning are a continuation of Central Equity's penchant for not tinkering with their winning formula. Doig Architecture and Guilford Bell &amp; Graham Fisher Architects are the design firms behind either tower highlighted below, each having an established relationship with the prolific developer which has yielded many residential projects over recent years.

<h2>268-274 City Road development summary</h2>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/image73_2.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="Doig Architecture's 268-274 City Road"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="876" src="/sites/urban.melbourne/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/image73_2.jpg?itok=AM3omSa9" title="Doig Architecture's 268-274 City Road" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>Doig Architecture's 268-274 City Road</figcaption></figure><ul>
<li>Design: Doig Architecture</li>
	<li>Proposed: 70 level tower at 222 metres</li>
	<li>Historic building onsite retained within podium structure</li>
	<li>570 apartments: 237 x 1BR, 271 x 2BR, 62 x 3BR</li>
	<li>273sqm ground floor retail tenancy</li>
	<li>Provision for 221 vehicles and 309 bicycles</li>
	<li>Level 10 amenities including terrace, pool, cinema and gym</li>
	<li>Estimated development cost: $120 million</li>
</ul>
<h2>556-558 Lonsdale Street development summary</h2>

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/image74.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="556-558 Lonsdale Street in its initial form"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="983" src="/sites/urban.melbourne/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/image74.jpg?itok=VMIiJIQ3" title="556-558 Lonsdale Street in its initial form" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>556-558 Lonsdale Street in its initial form</figcaption></figure><ul>
<li>Design: Guilford Bell &amp; Graham Fisher Architects</li>
	<li>Likely to be titled Melbourne Grand Apartments</li>
	<li>Site area: 2,187sqm</li>
	<li>Proposed: 67 level tower at 233 metres to top</li>
	<li>889 apartments: 100 x studio, 262 x 1BR, 366 x 2BR, 161 x 3BR</li>
	<li>3 ground floor retail tenancies</li>
	<li>Provision for 308 vehicles and 275 bicycles</li>
	<li>Amenities including pool, gym, theatre room, function room and common area</li>
	<li>Estimated development cost: $200 million</li>
</ul>
<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/image75_0.jpg" rel="gallery-all" title="71-87 City Road, 54-68 Kavanagh Street and 1 Balston Street"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="352" src="/sites/urban.melbourne/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/image75_0.jpg?itok=UegcAPRs" title="71-87 City Road, 54-68 Kavanagh Street and 1 Balston Street" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>71-87 City Road, 54-68 Kavanagh Street and 1 Balston Street</figcaption></figure>556-558 Lonsdale Street and 268-274 City Road join 71-87 City Road as Central Equity's projects which are still at planning, with all three lodged just prior to the implementation of the Metropolitan Planning Levy which commenced on 1 July 2015. In addition, 54-68 Kavanagh Street was granted a planning permit in recent days, allowing for a further 597 dwellings.

Brookfield Multiplex has established itself as Central Equity's builder of choice, with three builds for the developer in progress. Southbank's 1 Balston Street is at piling while 612 Lonsdale Street and 601 Little Lonsdale Street are well into construction.

Overall Central Equity has approximately 1,410 apartments currently under construction, 597 approved by way of 54-68 Kavanagh Street and 2,241 seeking approval as per the initial planning submissions mid year.
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Melbourne CBD on course to be the most densely populated area in Australia

Two giants round out Central Equity's massive development pipeline

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