<h2>Expert Observer</h2>

With the Federal election all but wrapped up, what can prospective buyers expect from the change in government, with the Labor party&rsquo;s win bringing a raft of policy changes.

With a look to address the property market&rsquo;s biggest issues,&nbsp; the headlining &lsquo;Help to Buy&rsquo; scheme is likely to be popular with prospective home buyers, as it provides a more affordable entry point to the Australian housing market for those individuals on low-to-mid level incomes.

This will contribute to more equality in rates of home ownership across income cohorts, and could create more opportunities for key workers to live in more central areas.

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Being able to share up to 40% of the purchase price with the government, along with only a small deposit and opportunity to save on lenders mortgage insurance, helps to overcome several of the hurdles of home ownership.

Keeping in mind buyers will still have to fund their transactional costs, including stamp duties, legal costs and bank fees.

Labor&rsquo;s Help to Buy scheme will involve an equity contribution from the Federal Government of up to 40 per cent of the purchase price of a new home, and up to 30 per cent for an existing home for 10,000 Australian&rsquo;s each financial year, with homebuyers needing just a 2 per cent deposit.

With a cap of 10,000 places, the scheme could be quickly oversubscribed as prospective Australian home buyers take advantage of the leg up into the housing market, Lawless says, highlighting the First Home Loan Deposit scheme, which saw the first 10,000 places of the scheme allocated within six months.

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However places for new homes were not taken up as quickly, and building constraints and high construction costs could deter the uptake of a shared equity scheme for new homes.

Having said that, a higher interest rate environment, which may see lower prices, could make people more cautious of buying, reducing demand for the scheme in the short term.

Historically, residential transaction activity correlates with property price movements. Additionally, we have just been through a period of significantly elevated transaction activity, including from the first home buyer cohort, where many home purchasing decisions were likely brought forward to take advantage of the swathe of home buying grants and incentives over 2020 and 2021.

The added flexibility of buyers being able to &lsquo;top up&rsquo; their ownership stake once in a better financial position is another advantage of the scheme, although any change in the proportion of ownership would presumably be accompanied by a paydown in the share of equity that has accrued in the property back to the government.

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Help to Buy scheme

<ul>
	<li>Government helps with up to 40% of property price for new homes, 30% for established, households source the rest of finance with as little as 2% deposit. Government holds a part ownership stake in the property, which can be bought out over time.</li>
	<li>Spots: 10,000 ▪ Income cap: $90k for individuals / $120k for couples</li>
	<li>Property price cap: varies by region, from $400k up to $950k ▪ Restricted to owner occupier buyers who don&rsquo;t currently own a property</li>
	<li>Commences from July 2022 Although the scheme is expected to be popular among buyers, Lawless warned anyone considering the scheme should be aware of the risks associated with buying on such a small deposit.</li>
</ul>

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With the housing market probably heading into a downturn over the coming year or years, some buyers may find their home is worth less than the debt held against it.

It&rsquo;s important to know if the government will share in the downside risk if the property is sold while in a negative equity situation.

KeyStart Loans in WA is a good example of what can happen to a shared equity scheme in a declining market. According to the WA government, the portion of KeyStart loan accounts in default did rise between January 2017 and September 2019, from 0.92% to 1.21% of KeyStart accounts, in the midst of a long, large housing downturn across WA.

However, he also added the default rate is still relatively low and the scheme has helped thousands of people into home ownership, saying, the nature of the housing and economic downturn in WA has posed a lot more risk to serviceability than the relatively tight labour market conditions we see in Australia at the moment.

While the Help to Buy scheme will help thousands of Australian&rsquo;s enter the property market, it&rsquo;s only addressing the symptoms of housing affordability rather than aim to actually fix the underlying issues.

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Similar to the First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, the new Labor Government appears to be adjusting from housing affordability solutions to more pragmatic policies that target home ownership, avoiding any downward pressure on housing prices.

It is also worth considering any demand-side incentives can add upward pressure to home prices. For this reason, the limited number of places in this particular scheme, along with price caps and income caps, should help to contain some of the excess demand that could result in upward pressure on prices.

Help to Buy is restricted to Australian&rsquo;s with a taxable income of up to $90,000 for individuals and up to $120,000 for couples. Capped at 10,000, applicants are also required to be Australian citizens and first home buyers.

Regional First Home Buyer Support Scheme 

<ul>
	<li>Government provides a deposit guarantee for regional home buyers with a deposit of at least 5%</li>
	<li>Spots: 10,000</li>
	<li>Income cap: $125k for individuals / $200k for couples</li>
	<li>Property price cap: varies by region, from $350k up to $800k to be reviewed half yearly</li>
	<li>Restricted to owner occupier buyers who haven&rsquo;t previously owned a property and have been living in the region for at least 12 months</li>
	<li>Commences from January 2023</li>
</ul>

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The Regional First Home Buyer Support Scheme extends the existing First Home Loan Deposit Scheme by providing an additional 10,000 places specifically for regional first home purchases, providing a guarantee of up to 15 per cent for eligible first home buyers &ndash; so that locals with a&nbsp;five per cent deposit can avoid paying mortgage insurance.

Based on the property price caps, the scheme is likely to be most popular for those buyers targeting a unit purchase, or lower priced regional markets where detached housing values are more affordable.

CoreLogic&rsquo;s analysis of regional Australian suburbs shows roughly one third recorded a median house value equal to or under the Regional First Home Buyer Support Scheme price cap, and 71.1 per cent recorded a median unit value equal to or less than the price cap.

The Labor party notes &lsquo;the housing crisis is hitting regional Australia the hardest&rsquo;, which isn&rsquo;t necessarily true from a purchasing perspective.&quot;

Although regional housing values have risen faster than capital city housing values over the past few years, we are still seeing the dwelling value to household income ratio across regional Australia (a ratio of 7.9 in March 2022) lower than the capitals (a ratio of 8.5).

From a rental perspective, regional renters have been dedicating a larger proportion of their incomes towards rent than the capital cities since 2017.

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Establishment of a National Housing Supply and Affordability Council 

<ul>
	<li>The newly established council would sit within an expanded remit of NHFIC (National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation) renamed Housing Australia. ▪ The council would: ▪ take a leadership role for setting land supply targets (in consultation state and territory governments)</li>
	<li>Establish a housing data warehouse focussed on housing supply, demand and affordability</li>
	<li>Advise on town planning policies and land supply</li>
	<li>Report on government owned land releases, rental affordability, homelessness and the number of new social &amp; affordable homes built annually</li>
	<li>Advise on appropriate housing measures within all current and future City and Regional Deals.</li>
</ul>

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Many of the factors contributing to worsening housing affordability, such as insuffficent land release and restirive town planning policies will soon be part of an extended remit for the reframed NHFIC, which would be re-branded as Housing Australia, The expanded role will administer the various government programs, including the Help to Buy scheme, existing deposit guarantee schemes and the Housing Australia Future Fund, as well as take responsibility for the newly created National Housing and Affordability Council and National Housing and Homeless Plan.

Lawless said NHFIC&rsquo;s expanded remit should help to address the issues that make housing unaffordable, while also providing more transparency and reporting about the release of government owned land and helping to steer policies related to social and affordable housing supply.

It was interesting to note Labor intends to fund some of these initiatives by applying higher fees on foreign buyer purchases.

Higher fees and costs associated with foreign buying activity comes after a recent history of substantially higher federal and state-based taxes on this buyer segment. In fact, this may have contributed to foreign buying approvals hitting record lows according to FIRB data.

Further disincentives for foreign buying have the potential to keep foreign purchasing at low levels, which could have a negative outcome on rental supply. Arguably, higher levels of foreign buying activity could help to alleviate the rental crisis Australia is navigating by introducing more rental housing into Australia, given that foreign buyers generally have to buy new homes.

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The Housing Australia Future Fund 

<ul>
	<li>A $10 billion initiative with the objective of funding social and affordable housing properties.</li>
	<li>Over the first five years the fund has a goal of building:
	<ul>
		<li>20,000 social housing properties &nbsp;</li>
		<li>10,000 affordable homes for key workers</li>
		<li>$200 million in maintenance/improvements of housing in indigenous communities</li>
		<li>$100 million for transitional housing options supporting women and children in domestic violence situations</li>
		<li>$30 million for housing veterans who are experiencing or at risk of homelessness.</li>
	</ul>
	</li>
</ul>

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With the stock of social housing increasing only marginally since 2006, investment in social and affordable housing is long overdue.

While the additional funding and housing support for disadvantaged sectors of the community is welcome, the 30,000 additional dwelling over five years remains insufficient.

A recent report from Brendan Coates at the Grattan Institute noted even with 100,000 extra social housing properties targeted towards people in most need, more than two thirds of low-income Australians would remain in the private rental market where national rents are currently rising at around 9% per annum.

National Housing and Homelessness Plan 

<ul>
	<li>Aims to establish key short, medium and longer term reforms making it easier for Australians to buy a home, rent and provide shelter for homeless Australians.</li>
</ul>

There is little detail so far on this initiative and the plan is yet to be formulated. However, the Labor party has expressed a commitment to working with a broad range of stakeholders including the states and territories, local governments, industry bodies, superannuation funds and other relevant experts on how to address housing, finance and urban development.

Tim Lawless is CoreLogic&#39;s Research Director.

Labor’s Help to Buy scheme will involve an equity contribution from the Federal Government of up to 40 per cent of the purchase price of a new home, and up to 30 per cent for an existing home


tlawless

What a Labor Government means for housing affordability and the Australian property market

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<h2>OPINION</h2>

Melbourne dwelling values have surpassed their earlier April 2020 peak by 0.2%, according to CoreLogic’s daily hedonic home value index.

Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s Executive Research Director, says it had only been a matter of time before the recent strong capital gains in housing values led Australia’s second largest city to move to new record highs. 

“Reflecting what we saw in Sydney earlier this month, Melbourne dwelling values have now surpassed their previous peak to notch up a new record high. Following a decline of -6.1% through COVID-19, values have since grown by 6.7%, and are now sitting 0.2% above their recent high recorded by CoreLogic’s hedonic daily home value index on 6 April 2020.”

This brings Melbourne’s dwelling values to 13.8% above their recent low in mid-2019, and the median value for all dwellings to $736,478.

<h2>Recently listed properties:</h2>

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Melbourne dwelling values have surpassed their earlier April 2020 peak by 0.2%, according to CoreLogic’s daily hedonic home value index

Melbourne property values regain COVID loss and surpass previous record: Tim Lawless

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EXPERT INSIGHT

As many parts of rural Australia emerge from long running drought conditions, and the mining sector benefits from higher commodity prices and a lift in investment, many rural areas are recording a surge in housing prices.

Regional housing markets have been at the centre of attention through 2020, due to housing values outpacing their capital city counterparts. Broadly, housing values across regional Australia (+7.9%) increased by more than four times the growth rate recorded across the combined capital city regions (+1.7%) over the twelve months to January 2021.

Most of the reporting on regional areas around the country has focussed on the main population centres outside of the capital cities. These include high profile coastal regions such as Byron and Noosa, or semi-rural markets like the wine regions and hinterland locations close to the major metro regions. This is understandable, given their large populations and popularity. Most of these regions have shown substantial rises in house values over the past year.

However, many of Australia’s in-land rural markets are also showing strong housing market conditions. These areas generally do not provide commuting options back to major working nodes, nor the broad-based lifestyle appeal of coastal markets or hinterland locations. But they do provide a variety of other benefits such as low housing prices, low population densities and a rural lifestyle that may appeal to many. These regions tend to exist within their own economic ecosystem, driven by localised factors including climatic conditions such as drought, as well as local economic drivers like agriculture, mining operations and tourism, infrastructure investment or government services.

The analysis below focuses on the annul change in house values across rural in-land council regions. These areas are all separated from the coastline and are located at least 200km from the GPO of the capital city metro regions. Many of these in- land rural areas of Australia have emerged from long running drought conditions, and others are benefitting from higher commodity prices, which has driven a lift in mining related investment. Some are major service centres that provide essential amenities for surrounding areas.

Council areas with fewer than 20 house sales over the past year have been excluded from the analysis. Many of these markets are moving out of a period of extended decline, mostly due to either drought conditions or the mining downturn.

The rise in values is likely to be a welcome development for long-term home owners in the area. 41 of the 91 council regions analysed recorded house values that remained at least 10% below their historic highs. On the flipside, 32 of the 91 regions had house values tracking at record highs in January 2021.

Council regions where housing values were at record highs were generally skewed towards the largest rural population centres, where economic conditions generally show greater diversity. Seven of the ten largest population centres recorded house values at historical highs. Council regions recording the strongest growth conditions were mixed across Australia’s in-land rural markets, however areas of Central West and North Western Queensland comprised four of the top five regions for the largest rise in house values over the past year.

Winton topped the list where CoreLogic estimates house values surged 40.5% over the twelve months ending January. Only 21 house sales were recorded within the Winton council area over the past year, however that was a 62% lift on sales activity over the prior year, demonstrating a substantial lift in demand, albeit from a small base. Nearby Cloncurry showed a similar result, with values rising 37.1% over the year. This was on the back of sales activity lifting 38.7% to reach 43 house sales last year.

Focussing on the largest in-land rural population centres, the strongest performing market over the past year has been Mount Isa, where house values are up 23.1%. Despite the strong gains, house values remain 39.3% below their 2013 peak at Mount Isa, highlighting the previous weak conditions that have were evident between mid-2013 through to the market finding a floor in August 2019.

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Thirteen of the twenty largest rural in-land population centres have values tracking at record highs in January 2021, with most of these areas located in New South Wales or Victoria.

The larger rural population centres arguably show less risk in housing market trends due to their more diversified economies, however this is not always the case. Queensland’s Western Downs council is a case in point: despite having the seventh largest in-land rural population base (34,585 residents), the economy is mainly centred on agriculture, and house values remain 28.3% below their 2013 peak. Values are once again rising though, up 6.2% over the past twelve months, as the region emerges from a long running drought.

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Overall, Australia’s in-land rural markets offer up a diverse array of living options, generally with low price tags. The highest median house value was recorded for houses within the Alpine council area at $520,588 which is about $280,000 less than Greater Melbourne’s median house value and almost $500,000 less than Sydney’s. Median house values range down to less than $90,000 in the council areas of Coonamble ($86,139), Bourke ($89,465), Murweh ($89,569) and Blackall-Tambo ($89,687). Such sheer affordability is likely to be an attraction for some buyers, however prospective city folk interested in relocating to the rural areas of Australia might be better off ‘testing the waters’ by renting before buying... just to make sure the rural lifestyle is really their cup of tea.

TIM LAWLESS is the Research Director at CoreLogic
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As many parts of rural Australia emerge from long running drought conditions alongside other factors many rural areas are recording a surge in housing prices

Tim Lawless

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