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GUEST OBSERVER
Hobart is Propertyology’s tip to be Australia’s best performed capital city property market in 2017.
An underrated economy, limited properties for sale, the tightest vacancy rates in Australia, a more controlled housing supply pipeline than mainland cities, and increased buyer activity are expected to drive property prices and rents higher.
We have been actively investing in Hobart for a while and our buyer’s agents have observed firsthand price growth of 8 to 10 percent over the past 12 months. We can only see buyer activity further intensifying and forcing stronger growth over the next couple of years.
On an all things being equal basis, double-digit price growth is well and truly on the cards for Hobart in 2017.
<a href="/images/2016/11/16/1.Population3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/16/1.Population3.jpg" alt="">
The significant retraction in properties listed for sale has made it increasingly difficult for our buyer’s agents to find suitable properties for our investors. Properties are generally selling within a week of listing and often going for prices well above our own appraisal range. The market is red hot.
Residential vacancy rates in Hobart are the lowest of all capital cities and rental yields are the highest. 
It’s an investor’s paradise in that Hobart is producing the dual benefit of solid capital growth and high rental yield.
Housing Demand
On the back of the underrated improvement with Tasmania’s economy over the last couple of years, the latest quarterly population data from ABS showed its highest population growth rate in five years.
Some property investors place too much emphasis on Tasmania’s below average population growth rate. The fact is that, over the last 20 years, there have only been 2 quarters out of 80 where Tasmania’s population grew by more than the national average but Hobart’s property market has experienced plenty of strong years. During the 6 years 2001 to 2006, inclusive, Tasmania’s population growth rate was below the national average for 5 of those 6 years yet property price growth was far superior to Sydney, including growth of 44.6 per cent, 32.1 and 11.2 in 2003, 2004 and 2005.
Of greater significance to housing demand than population growth is affordability and economic improvement. Hobart’s median house price is well less than half the cost of Sydney and Melbourne and there’s good reason to be optimistic about Tasmania’s economy.
The much lower entry price and higher yield make Hobart a significantly safer investment than Australia’s two biggest cities, particularly so when interest rates start trending up again.
Job volumes in Hobart bottomed at 100,400 in January 2014 and increased to 106,000 as at December 2015. The improved labour market has definitely lead to a general increase in consumer confidence.
Sydney and Melbourne are much closer to the end than the beginning of their growth cycles. Hobart, on the other hand, is just beginning. 
Economy
Tasmania’s improved economy is somewhat of an untold story:
International Exports: 8.7 percent increase in Tasmania for the year ending September (compared to 2 percent growth nationally).
Retail Trade: 7.3 percent increase over the two years ending September (compared to 7.1 percent national average)
Visitor Arrivals: 17.7 percent increase for the year ending August 2016 (the biggest increase of all states)
Unemployment Rates: Tasmania’s September unemployment rate of 6.5 percent is far and away the most improved state in Australia over the last 3 years.
Housing Finance: the number of loans for the quarter ending August 2016 is 7.2 percent higher than the same time last year (second highest growth in Australia).
Propertyology is anticipating continued improvement in Hobart’s economy to come from greater engagement with Asian countries, a very strong tourism industry, an expanding international student market, major construction projects like the Hobart hospital, several new hotels, and the exciting Macquarie Point project, and fast-rising demand for Tasmania’s world-quality agriculture products (Asia’s food bowl).
Housing Supply
Big mainland cities have unprecedented high volumes of new properties in the supply pipeline at a time when population growth (demand) is not dissimilar to historical trends. Hobart on the other hand has building approval volumes which are much more sustainable. 
There is an imbalance which threatens Sydney and Melbourne property markets, especially if interest rates rise and / or Asian investors need to get their money out of Australia. Hobart’s supply and demand metrics certainly look more balanced.
Simon Pressley is managing director of Propertyology, an REIA Hall Of Fame Inductee, property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Buyer’s Agent. <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/more-than-a-buyers-agent/" target="_blank">Propertyology works exclusively with property investors</a> to purchase properties in strategically chosen locations all over Australia.
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spressley-sBoeMhannA

Hobart to be Australia’s top capital city performer in 2017: Simon Pressley

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GUEST OBSERVER
Contrary to what’s been broadly reported over the last few years, Melbourne’s over-supply concerns are not contained to its well documented CBD apartment market. Our supply heat map illustrates that almost the entire fifteen kilometre Melbourne ring has excess supply in the pipeline.
For the ten (10) year period to the end of 2011, there were 35,226 new dwellings approved in Greater-Melbourne each year. Greater-Melbourne building approvals (housing supply) for the last two financial years is averaging 53,690 dwellings per annum.
Greater-Melbourne’s population has grown by 182,538 people over the last two years [ABS]. This equates to underlining housing demand of 70,207 dwellings, or 35,103 per annum. Basic mathematics suggests that the current housing supply-demand pipeline has a surplus of 37,174 dwellings. If every approved dwelling was constructed this is a big enough surplus to accommodate an entire city the size of Ballarat.
<a href="/images/2016/04/20/A_Melbourne_Supply_HeatMap-watermark.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/20/A_Melbourne_Supply_HeatMap-watermark.jpg" alt="">
There has been a distinct trend towards more apartments, with attached dwellings representing fifty-six per cent (56 percent) of all building approvals over the last four (4) years, up from the thirty-five per cent (35 percent) ten year average. 
Melbourne City is on track to approving 19,000 CBD apartments over the last three years; this is an increase of 158 percent on the annual average from the previous five years. The Melbourne LGA population growth is just shy of 6,000 people per annum and equates to demand for 3,000 extra dwellings compared to the recent average annual supply of 6,300 CBD dwellings. Houston, we have a (big) problem!
Sixteen (16) out of Greater-Melbourne’s thirty-one (31) LGA’s have approved more than fifty percent more dwellings than normal, even though Melbourne’s population growth rate has remained relatively the same.
Recent average annual rates of supply have more than doubled the long-term average in the LGA’s of Darebin, Glen Eira, Manningham, Maribyrnong, Stonnington and Yarra. And, between 50 percent and 100 percent increases in building approvals are unfolding in the LGA’s of Banyule, Bayside, Boroondara, Greater-Dandenong, Hume, Knox, Maroondah, Moonee Valley, Moreland and Port Phillip.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-27%20at%209.29.26%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-27%20at%209.29.26%20AM.png" alt="">
Simon Pressley is Managing Director of Propertyology, a REIA Hall Of Fame Inductee, property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Buyer’s Agent. <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/more-than-a-buyers-agent/" target="_blank">Propertyology works exclusively with property investors</a> to purchase properties in strategically chosen locations all over Australia.
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Melbourne's housing over-supply: Propertyology

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WHYALLA: Have we ever recommended people invest there? No. Would we invest there right now? No. Is the city on our radar? Absolutely!
One has to feel for the residents of Whyalla following last week’s announcement that the Arrium steelworks, the City’s biggest employer, was placed in to administration. Questions hang over the future of the 1600 to 3000 jobs (depending on which report we read) of those who work at the plant and the likely knock-on effect to local businesses.
Arrium’s troubles stem from a sharp down turn in iron ore prices, China currently having a glut of steel, significant debt, and an inability to fund much needed efficiency improvements.
A little over a year ago, as we often do in attempt to broaden people's views about property investing, Propertyology produced a <a href="/expert-insights/buying/41593-the-regional-city-that-has-outperformed-all-capital-cities-for-15-years-pressley" target="_blank">research report on Whyalla</a>. The report still remains on our website today. Unfortunately, some people seem to interpret a research report as a 'recommendation to invest'. For the record, we've produced more than thirty research reports over the last two years (after all, market research is my profession). But, the city of Whyalla has never been amongst the seven (7) different cities that Propertyology's buyer’s agents have actively investing in during this same period.
<a href="/images/2016/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-13%20at%209.10.43%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-13%20at%209.10.43%20AM.png" alt="">
Whyalla’s recent property market performance is a contrast to its impressive historical performance. It’s unwise to invest in a market whenever there is uncertainty surrounding a significant employer. For those who already own property in Whyalla, I'd suggest that now is not the time to sell. But, I'll also say that, even with these recent events, Whyalla (along with numerous other locations around Australia) still remains on our future 'Watch List'.
That’s right, we have a completely different view to the many narrow-minded scribes whom appear to take delight in giving every regional location a whack whenever there’s a down turn. I’ve never understood what can be gained from pulling at public heart strings with a “blood in the streets” story or from creating a perception of a future "ghost town". It’s little wonder that much of the general public have formed a belief that investing in regional locations constitutes high risk.
A significant proportion of property investors, and those who commentate on property markets, can't see past Australia’s three or four biggest cities – less than twenty per cent of all local government jurisdictions in Australia. It’s impossible for one to ever give themselves a chance of making the best decision possible without first considering one hundred percent of the options.
Historical evidence, as opposed to narrow-minded perception, has taught me that a majority of the locations throughout Australia which have produced the best total return on investment since the turn of the century are regional locations. 
Sure, there are regional locations which represent much higher risk than others. There are also dozens of regional locations which have comparable risk to most capital cities but better potential for return on investment. Every location, capital city or region, has risk!
With the recent downturn of commodity prices, locations which have been adversely affected have become easy targets for some property commentators. Some people forget that the Sydney market flat-lined for six long years while many parts of Australia, especially regional Australia, sustained a long period of strong growth. Even as recently as 2011, the Sydney market declined (albeit small) and followed up with zero growth in 2012. Most properties in Brisbane declined by fifteen per cent between 2011 and 2012. Perth and Darwin are declining right now and Propertyology forecast that both have a bit further to fall. But, that doesn't mean that we should forever right them off as investment prospects. 
A market downturn caused by business closures can happen anywhere. Perhaps one of the most famous examples is the closure of BHP’s steelworks in Newcastle in 1999. The 10,000 direct and indirect jobs lost certainly had a big impact on the workforce of 56,000 people [Census 2001]. Over the next fifteen years, Newcastle’s property market produced a total average annual return (capital growth plus rental yield) which saw it ranked 175th out of 550 local governments in Australia – only two capital cities performed better (Darwin and Perth).
Another example of a market downturn brought on by major business closures is Geelong (Alcoa, Shell and Target circa 2011). In 2014, there was a serious threat of the SPC Ardmona food manufacturing plant closing in Shepparton. More recently, the Clive Palmer owned Queensland Nickel plant in Townsville went in to administration. Meanwhile, after seventy years of operation, Australia’s biggest white goods manufacturer, Electrolux in the regional city of Orange, rolled its last fridge off the production line this week. 
In each case, the businesses in question employed a significant portion of the workforce. Yes, business closures certainly do have an immediate impact on the economy, local confidence, and its property market. But the locations which I referenced earlier each have a long term property market performance that is better than average; I’d always have an open mind to investing there from time to time. 
Still today, Brisbane’s property market is spluttering through its recovery from thousands of administration job losses as a result of the coal industry downturn and public service cuts. Melbourne and Adelaide will soon feel the brunt of car manufacturing closures (watch this space).
Risks to investors come from a range of factors. Natural disasters such as floods, hail storms, bush fires, cyclones, and drought have hit numerous capital cities and regional locations over the years. Airline strikes, high oil prices, exchange rates, terrorist attacks could have a significant impact on the economy of Australia’s biggest cities. And, not to be under-estimated, an over-zealous construction industry risks property price reductions through over-supply of housing (refer Gladstone, Mackay, Darwin, inner-Melbourne, and more to come).
One of the most important considerations for property investors when evaluating the potential risk to a market is the cost of a typical property. The higher it is the further it can fall. Imagine the potential impact on a market where the typical property costs $800,000 to $1,000,000, the typical mortgage is seventy to eighty per cent of that, and interest rates rising by one to two per cent. What do you think the typical mortgage balance is in a location where standard properties cost between $250,000 and $450,000? 
There’s risk in everything. To get that right balance of managing risk and targeting better opportunities, my own investment strategy is not that dissimilar to an astute share investor. Rather than sink 100% of my investment capital in to one (or two) expensive assets which fewer people can afford to buy, I prefer to carve up my capital and spread it across more markets, in assets which more people can afford, and with more sources of rental income. I maintain balance within my portfolio by strategically selecting locations in different states and through towns and cities which each have different industries that drive their economy.
Capital cities and regions: I invest in both! But, I won't shy away from the fact that I favour more regional markets right now than capital cities. Lots more! 
A typical property in a location such as Whyalla may only require (say) $40,000 of my investment capital and have an impact on my annual cash flow of a couple of thousand dollars. A comparable property in a big city will require two to three times as much of my capital to purchase it and in excess of $10,000 per year to hold it. Risk? 
For the record, Whyalla’s Arrium plant has not closed, it has been placed in administration. All forms of governments and advisors, including Paul Keating, are reviewing options. While closure is certainly a possibility, there is also a possibility that Arrium could survive and come out of this in a stronger in years to come. 
Paul Billingham from Grant Thornton (Arrium’s Administrator) was quoted over the weekend saying "…We’re talking about capital improvements that actually make the operation from mining right through to milling more efficient. The debt burden of the company didn’t make it possible to make those investments while they were operating. This plant is viable. These jobs can survive". 
In spite of the recent downturn, the enormous reserves of gold, copper, zinc and uranium nearby to Whyalla have not evaporated. The multi-billion-dollar steel factory infrastructure is likely to still be standing when iron prices turn the corner. The existing deep sea port infrastructure isn’t about to be dragged away by a humpback whale. Housing is still affordable. Core fundamentals remain! 
The ‘watch-this-space’ factor for Whyalla is the large BHP owned Olympic Dam projects which Propertyology referred to in our research report. If / when that project were to get given the green light, just imagine what that would do for Whyalla’s economy. Just imagine the return on investment from that initial $40,000 capital outlay.
 
Simon Pressley is Managing Director of Propertyology, a REIA Hall Of Fame Inductee, property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Buyer’s Agent. <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/more-than-a-buyers-agent/">Propertyology works exclusively with property investors</a> to purchase properties in strategically chosen locations all over Australia.
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Simon Pressley returns to review Whyalla's property investment status

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GUEST OBSERVER
After price growth in both 2013 and 2014, I said on live television in January 2015 that Propertyology’s research suggested Perth property values would be lower by the end of 2015 and we proved to be right. Our outlook for Perth in 2016 is for this trend to continue – they’ll be lower again by the end of 2016.
While I can understand why local real estate agents are trying to sell ‘hope’ by claiming that the market has stabilised, it is false hope. Propertyology does not share the view that it is a good time to buy in Perth and are therefore recommending alternative locations to our investors. Propertyology expects both property prices and rents in Perth to fall further during 2016.
Perth is a beautiful city with great infrastructure however, its economy is significantly more reliant on one industry than what would be expected from a city with 2 million population. The economy lacks diversity.
Demand and supply fundamentals are completely out of whack in Perth.
<a href="/images/2016/04/5/BuildingApprovals_2004-2015.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/5/BuildingApprovals_2004-2015.jpg" alt="">
From 2013 onwards, construction of several large mining projects reached completion however, sharply falling commodity prices meant that haven’t been any replacement contracts for the tens of thousands of affected workers. The state’s unemployment rate has increased by 1.0% more than the national average over the last two years.
State government coffers are such that spending is being curtailed. Our research also suggests that significant further job cuts in iron ore and gas are imminent, many of these workers will currently be residing in Perth.
For the year ending June 2013, Western Australia’s population grew by 77,000 people whereas in the year ending June 2015 population growth had reduced significantly to 33,000 people.
<a href="/images/2016/04/5/Population_InterstateMigration_2000-2015.09.jpg">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/5/Population_InterstateMigration_2000-2015.09.jpg" alt="">
The most concerning part of the population trend is that it has now been five consecutive quarters where interstate migration has declined. Before this current trend commenced in June 2014, it had been eleven years since a negative interstate migration figure had been produced in WA.
On the housing supply side of the equation, the city normally builds around 18,000 dwellings per year.  Over the last two years, 53,000 dwellings have been approved in Perth. The over-supply pipeline will hang around for at least of couple of years yet.
In July 2013, there were 7,800 properties for sale; today there are 15,200. It’s a similar story with sales volumes – in July 2013, approximately 900 properties were being sold per week and now it’s back to 500 per week.
 SIMON PRESSLEY IS MANAGING DIRECTOR OF <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">PROPERTYOLOGY</a>, AN REIA HALL OF FAME INDUCTEE, PROPERTY MARKET ANALYST, ACCREDITED PROPERTY INVESTMENT ADVISER, AND BUYER’S AGENT. PROPERTYOLOGY WORKS EXCLUSIVELY WITH PROPERTY INVESTORS TO PURCHASE PROPERTIES IN STRATEGICALLY CHOSEN LOCATIONS ALL OVER AUSTRALIA.
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Here's why Perth property prices will be lower again by year end: Simon Pressley

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GUEST OBSERVER
Consider this: ‘Investor A’ and ‘Investor B’ both purchased separate properties for $400,000 each. Fast forward to fifteen (15) years’ time and ‘Investor A’s’ property is worth $600,000 while ‘Investor B’s’ property is worth $800,000. 
Which property will make a greater contribution to the investor’s retirement?
The answer to this question is very logical however, the initial decision making process for a lot of investors is far from logical.
Decision making is a refined skill. Really good decision making starts by first exploring what ALL of your options are. Often, it won’t be obvious to people what all those options are – one can’t know what they don’t know – so seeking the advice of a genuine specialist will expose us to more options. There can be very few more important financial decisions than picking the right property to invest in.
Property investors ought to first start their decision making process by acknowledging that [as at 2015] there are 9.6 million properties. That’s a lot of choices.
<a href="/images/2016/03/3/A_PropertyChoices.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/3/A_PropertyChoices.jpg" alt="">
Historically speaking, Australia has built on average 160,000 new dwellings each year. Over the last few years, this figure has increased to around 200,000 new dwellings per year. For the purpose of the exercise, let’s say that 180,000 new dwellings are added to the existing pool of 9.6 million dwellings each year. 
Now, it is true that there are bigger tax deductions (depreciation benefits) to claim on brand new property. But, depreciation deductions can also be significant on established properties, too.
At the end of the day though, taxation benefits should not be any investor’s primary reason for investing. While we all want to take advantage of every benefit available, the primary reason for investing is to accumulate a big enough net asset base so that, in the future, we have sufficient passive income without relying on work.
Common sense suggests that ‘Investor B’ referred to earlier is better placed than ‘Investor A’.
Investors need to avoid being ‘lured’ in to the features-and-benefits that property promoters refer to when trying to sell new property.
The sale price of a brand new property typically includes a 40% loading for taxes associated with the initial construction. When compared to the price of a comparable established property, the owner of a new property is behind the eight-ball from Day 1.
Remember, all brand new properties become subject to wear-and-tear anyway. And, unlike machinery, properties don’t have a ‘used by date’ – as properties change hands they are often renovated. A property within my own portfolio is 104 years old and I have incurred less outgoings for repairs and maintenance than many other properties which are decades newer.
An astute property investment decision starts by reviewing the supply-and-demand investment fundamentals of the markets of Australia’s 550 local government jurisdictions – 100% of your options – not by limiting your potential to 2% of your choices (new properties).
 
Simon Pressley is Managing Director of Propertyology, a REIA Hall Of Fame Inductee, property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Buyer’s Agent. <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/more-than-a-buyers-agent/" target="_blank">Propertyology works exclusively with property investors</a> to purchase properties in strategically chosen locations all over Australia.
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Why investors like old property not new: Simon Pressley

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GUEST OBSERVER
With the downturn of coal prices over the last three years and the contrasting rise in Sydney property values, places like the Hunter Valley have been easy targets for property commentators to hand out a belting to.
These same people either suffer from short memories or selective hearing for it wasn’t that long ago when regional locations like the Hunter were flourishing while most capital city property markets were floundering.
When we combine average annual changes in median property values with rental yields to calculate a ‘ total return’ over the last fifteen years, property markets of the local government authorities (LGAs) within Hunter Valley actually outperformed all of Greater-Sydney’s 43 LGAs and 29 of Greater-Melbourne’s 31 LGA’s. Cessnock (ranked 77 out of Australia’s 550 LGAs) was the Region’s best performed market. Also amongst Australia’s Top 40% were the LGA’s of Maitland (134th), Newcastle (175th), Singleton (209th), and Muswellbrook (220nd).
From the onset of the GFC in late-2008 through to the end of 2014, even with the coal industry downturn factored in, Hunter Valley property markets have still compared favourably against all capital city markets with the exception of Sydney and Melbourne.
<a href="/images/2016/02/08/HunterValley_PropertyPrices_2008-2014.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/08/HunterValley_PropertyPrices_2008-2014.jpg" alt="">
The Hunter Valley is a large region with a population approaching 700,000 people. The diversity of industries within the region are arguably the most interesting in Australia. With different property entry prices, rental yields, and industry drivers, there really is quite a contrast between each of the markets within the Hunter.
<a href="/images/2016/02/10/Newcastle_BldgApprovals_2001-2015.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/10/Newcastle_BldgApprovals_2001-2015.jpg" alt="">
Newcastle is heavy industry with some big manufacturers such as Boeing and BAE, plus Australia’s premier fighter jet base. Some of the largest reserves and best quality coal in the world is produced in the Upper Hunter and exported from the world’s largest coal export terminal at Newcastle to places like Japan, Korea, China, and Taiwan. Newcastle has the infrastructure and economic profile of a capital city, a median house price of $475,000 and rental yields of circa 4.5%.
On both a capital growth and rental return front, Newcastle has better investment potential than Greater-Sydney however, there are better locations elsewhere in Australia.
With median house prices in the low $400,000 and 4.5% yields, Port Stephens and Lake Macquarie are very much lifestyle locations and aren’t ever likely to set the investment world on fire.
<a href="/images/2016/02/10/CoalPrices_2004-2015.12.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/10/CoalPrices_2004-2015.12.jpg" alt="">
Maitland is also a largish regional town (population 75,000), very good quality retail and business services, a median house price of $400,000 and 5% rental yields. There is a bit of new supply in the pipeline, including a large Huntlee estate, which has the potential to keep a lid on growth for some years yet.
<a href="/images/2016/02/10/HunterValley_Jobs_2000-2015.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/10/HunterValley_Jobs_2000-2015.jpg" alt="">
The rich agricultural land, plentiful water supply, and rolling hills creates the perfect cocktail for wineries, tourism, and agriculture. Cessnock (winery country) has a median house price circa $300,000 and yields of 5% plus although employment can be patchy.
The coal mines are in the Upper Hunter. There is a much higher quality lifestyle component and greater diversity of industry to Hunter Valley mining compared to the coal fields of central Queensland. Singleton has a significant military base and Muswellbrook is horse stud country, manufacturing, and tertiary education facilities through the local TAFE. Median house prices and rental yields in Singleton and Muswellbrook are very similar to Cessnock however, I feel the potential for investors over the medium to long term is slightly better.
Contrary to perceptions, employment growth has been steady in Hunter Valley over recent years. Middle-Upper Hunter had a net loss of jobs in 2013 and 2014 and then rebounded in 2015, as shown in our chart. The industry diversity and lifestyle components helped to cushion property prices in the Upper Hunter from large falls in values as the mining industry workforce retracted with falling coal prices. Property prices in Australia’s coal-related markets peaked late-2012 and, since then, values in the LGA of Isaac (which consists of Moranbah and Dysart) have declined by 64% whereas Muswellbrook has experienced a very mild 9% decline.
Some of the largest companies in the world have invested billions of dollars in Hunter Valley. Coal is easily the World’s biggest source of electricity and is likely to remain that way (at least) for several decades. What many people don’t realise is that the BHP’s of the world have been extremely active behind the scenes with several mining expansion applications in the Upper Hunter over the last couple of years. While mining company revenues (coal prices) have come under pressure they have been very successful in reducing expenses (especially labour costs) and it is apparent that they are lining their ducks up to be ready to move as soon as the coal price curve turns again (we are much closer to the bottom than the top).
I recently purchased a property in the Upper Hunter for my own portfolio. I’m not anticipating spectacular growth in the short term however, there are very few locations throughout Australia that are set to roar right now. I’m a huge believer in selecting locations for their fundamentals and buying while the market is flat. This philosophy has enabled me to purchase the pick of the litter with this fully renovated 3-bedroom house for only $248,000.
I’m not advocating that every investor does this. For clients with smaller property portfolios there are several other locations which Propertyology would suggest that they purchase in first. My own strategy involved keeping my portfolio balanced by complimenting the exposure that I already have in other states and other industries.  This purchase represents a small capital outlay, at the bottom of the market, and a small exposure to an industry (coal) which has more upside right now than most realise (just ask the World’s biggest mining company, BHP).
<a href="/images/2016/02/10/HunterValley-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/10/HunterValley-2.jpg" alt="">
Simon Pressley is Managing Director of Propertyology, a REIA Hall Of fame Inductee, property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Buyer’s Agent. <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/more-than-a-buyers-agent/">Propertyology works exclusively with property investors</a> to purchase properties in strategically chosen locations all over Australia.
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Hunter Valley property stacks up against Sydney, Melbourne

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A median property value of $315,000 and rental yields superior to those offered by capital cities makes it worth considering Australia’s twenty-ninth biggest city as a viable option to add to a property portfolio.
With a population of 63,000, Wagga Wagga is New South Wale’s largest inland city. It has essential health infrastructure, tertiary education offerings through Charles Sturt University, and a quality commerce and retail hub. Wagga Wagga services a broader Riverina regional population of 200,000 people.
<a href="/images/2016/01/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-13%20at%209.23.26%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/13/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-13%20at%209.23.26%20AM.png" alt="" width="734" height="388"> 
Located along Australia’s national (Hume) highway, transport and warehousing are important industries, with Toll Holdings a major employer. Heinz (processed food), Teys (abattoirs), Cargill (grain), and Riverina Oils &amp; Bio Energy are also employers which manufacture agricultural products from the region. 
The Kapooka army recruitment base and the Forest Hill RAAF logistics and training base are staples to the economy.
<a href="/images/2016/01/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-12%20at%2012.30.56%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-12%20at%2012.30.56%20PM.png" alt=""> 
The Murray Darling Basin supports the agriculture industry. Heavy clay soils have been the subject of much conjecture over the years. Parts of Wagga Wagga do suffer localised flooding, mostly in pockets to the north, the historical part of the city. The suburbs to the south of the city are newer and on higher land.
<a href="/images/2016/01/12/WaggaWagga_BldgApprovals_2001-2015.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/12/WaggaWagga_BldgApprovals_2001-2015.jpg" alt="">
During 2015, there were approximately 77,000 jobs spread across the Riverina region.
For the two year period ending August 2015, the region’s growth in jobs had been neutral compared to the 3 percent national increase. Propertyology believes that the outlook for jobs in the region is a healthy one largely due to the significant extra demand for quality agricultural products from Asia’s fast rising middle class.
<a href="/images/2016/01/12/WaggaWagga_JobsCreated_2000-2015.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/12/WaggaWagga_JobsCreated_2000-2015.jpg" alt="">
Free Trade Agreements recently signed with South Korea, Japan, and China (India is also expected to follow) paves the way for a huge opportunity for Australian agriculture. The region is Australia’s biggest producer of wine grapes, rice, and chicken, while beef and grain are also very prominent.
With numerous wineries and picturesque landscapes, cottage tourism is popular in the region. According to Destination NSW, visitors spent more than 2.5 million nights in the Riverina in the year to March 2015 – up by 4.4 percent on 2014. Overall visitation to regional NSW increased by 4.1 percent. 
Significant job creation projects in the Region’s pipeline include: 
<ul>
<li>A $75 million Intermodal Freight and Logistics hub in Wagga Wagga</li>
<li>New dam infrastructure proposed at Lake Coolah and Narrandera</li>
<li>A $2 million freight terminal at Leeton</li>
<li>A $14 million new shopping centre in the Wagga Wagga suburb of Estella</li>
<li>A large discovery of tin reserves at Adlethan 
</li>
</ul>
It might surprise people to know that Wagga Wagga’s 7.1 percent average annual price growth over the fifteen years since the turn of the Century was better than Greater-Sydney’s price growth of 6.3 percent over the same period. Out of 550 local governments in Australia, Wagga Wagga’s property market was ranked 240th on total return (average annual price capital growth + rental yield) over the fifteen years since 2000.
Average annual population growth over the last ten years of 0.9 percent is credible. A young demographic, a labour force with a good skills base, cost of housing almost 50% below the national average, and household incomes just below the national average add to the very solid fundamentals of the region’s property markets.
<a href="/images/2016/01/12/WaggaWagga_PropertyMarket_1990-2015.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/12/WaggaWagga_PropertyMarket_1990-2015.jpg" alt=""> 
Property values increased by 2 percent to 4 percent during 2015. Of more significance, property sales volumes were the highest that Wagga Wagga has seen since 2009; this is a good indication for local confidence.
As with most of Australia, building approvals in Wagga Wagga have been increasing over the last few years. The housing supply pipeline mostly contains detached houses with a few new estates popping up. The rate of new supply appears to be more sensibly controlled than many of Australia’s bigger profile cities.
The factors likely to influence housing demand and supply, combined with Wagga Wagga’s economic profile, are such that Propertyology forecasts its property market to be a steady performer and potential for a superior return to property investors than higher profile cities such as Sydney and Melbourne over the next few years. Investors could do a lot worse than Wagga Wagga.
SIMON PRESSLEY IS MANAGING DIRECTOR OF <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">PROPERTYOLOGY</a>, AN REIA HALL OF FAME INDUCTEE, PROPERTY MARKET ANALYST, ACCREDITED PROPERTY INVESTMENT ADVISER, AND BUYER’S AGENT. PROPERTYOLOGY WORKS EXCLUSIVELY WITH PROPERTY INVESTORS TO PURCHASE PROPERTIES IN STRATEGICALLY CHOSEN LOCATIONS ALL OVER AUSTRALIA. 
{mijopolls 124}
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Wacky or realistic? Wagga Wagga property tipped to outperform Sydney and Melbourne from 2016: Simon Pressley

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How are these for solid property investment fundamentals: detached houses cost well under the national average price of $475,000 ~ rental yields of 6% plus ~ population growth rate in line with the national average ~ controlled rates of new housing supply ~ average household income well above the national average ~ average age lower than the national average. How many locations can you think of with better credentials?
For the fifteen year period ending December 2014, the average annual change in median house values in this location was 6.5% and, when combined with median yields of 6.4%, the total return gives this location a ranking which puts it amongst Australia’s Top 40% (209th out of 550 local government jurisdictions). In fact, the historical performance of this property market since the year 2000 was on par with Sunshine Coast and Ballarat, better than the highly desirable South Perth, equal to or better than twenty-nine of Melbourne’s thirty-one LGAs, and better than all of Sydney’s forty-three LGAs. 
Keen to know where this location is?
The main industries supporting the economy of this location are tourism, agriculture, and the defence force. The outlook for these economies at this juncture in the Asian Century, where an unprecedented rise in the number of people about to enter the middle class beckons, is super exciting. It’s little wonder that the Australian federal government and lots of wealthy foreign investors are actively pursuing funding options for new infrastructure investment in the region. 
With current rents all but covering the holding costs on an investment property in this location, just imagine the potential for future capital growth. 
<a href="/images/2015/11/26/900_KatherineNT_PropertyMarket_1999-2014.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="/images/2015/11/26/900_KatherineNT_PropertyMarket_1999-2014.jpg" alt="">
If this hasn’t got the motivated property investor licking their lips I don’t know what will!
World champion athletes Cadel Evans and Leisel Jones were born in this location is probably insufficient information for people to correctly guess the name of this location. Ok, I’ll cease with the suspense. The location that I have described is the Northern Territory regional town of Katherine!
Now, I bet your investment appetite has suddenly dissipated. 
I have just created a real-life set of circumstances to illustrate that too few property investors have an ability to understand and remain focused on the important fundamentals that count most when selecting a location to invest in. The fundamentals described above are real; they are impressive. And if, when I revealed the name of this location, it was a suburb within a capital city I suspect this report would be promptly shared with so many family and friends that it would accelerate within Google’s search engine faster than one could say ‘hotspot’.
Instead of making decisions on investment fundamentals, almost all property investors will immediately be drawn to a map and their personal feelings upon receipt of the name of a location. Often without even realising it, the heart immediately over-rules the head and we begin to ask ourselves questions like ‘would we live there?’ Whether we personally would live in Katherine, Kingston or Kogarah is as subjective as selecting T-bone, trout, or tofu from the restaurant menu.
Located 320 kilometres (a 3 hour drive) south east of Darwin, Katherine is positioned along the nationally significant freight link connecting Darwin to Adelaide. In addition to the national highway, a railway line connects also runs past Katherine. 
Katherine is the Northern Territory’s fifth most populous local government authority (after Darwin, Palmerston, Alice Springs, and Litchfield). 
Katherine has developed in to the primary service centre for a total regional population of 24,000 and an area almost the size of Victoria. Essential social infrastructure is well established, including modern retail facilities, hospital, schooling, sports grounds, parks and gardens as well as several Commonwealth and Territory Government services.
The main industries supporting Katherine’s economy are agriculture, tourism, defence, government (primary industries), and mining.  
RAAF Base Tindal, located adjacent to Katherine civilian airport, is significant for Australia’s air combat defence and fast jet base. The RAAF personnel and families contribute approximately 2,200 people to Katherine’s population and this is expected to increase with the potential of the Delamere Bombing Range and the Bradshaw Range.
The region is adventure territory, offering unique attractions such as Kakadu and Nitmiluk national parks, Katherine Gorge, ancient (indigenous) rock paintings, caves, fishing and camping experiences. Katherine is exceptionally popular for the ‘grey nomads’ (the fast growing number of baby boomers who enjoy long and affordable holidays while taking in the unique sights that Australia offers). 
With approximately 300,000 visitors per year, the retail facilities of Katherine are more than adequate. 
Plentiful water supply and vast open planes makes this prime agricultural land. The environment consists of a warm, tropical climate, spectacular gorges and rainforests, and heavy monsoonal rains in summer. Flash flooding from the Katherine River can occur although it is quite sheltered from the potentially destructive cyclonic winds.
This is one of Australia’s biggest beef cattle regions. Vegetables, mangoes, hay and other field crops are also grown. The NT Department of Primary Industries employs approximately 40 people in Katherine in predominantly research-related roles. With the rapid rise of Asia’s middle class and the resultant huge demand for agricultural products (especially proteins), the Top End is attracting increasing interest from the federal government and foreign investors for investment in primary infrastructure such as irrigation, roads, and rail.
Once a prime gold mining region, the main mined commodities today are lead, zinc, limestone and gravel. 
Several primary schools, a 600-student public high school, an expanding Catholic college, and Charles Darwin university campus cater for the educational needs while the Katherine District Hospital services the health needs of the region
Katherine has already outperformed most high profile property markets over the last fifteen years. Current fundamentals would suggest that the potential for the next fifteen years is better again. Property investors who are unable to challenge the status quo and focus on fundamentals, not the name, are only short-changing themselves.
<a href="/images/2015/11/26/700_darwin.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/26/700_darwin.jpg" alt="">
 
SIMON PRESSLEY IS MANAGING DIRECTOR OF <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">PROPERTYOLOGY</a>, AN REIA HALL OF FAME INDUCTEE, PROPERTY MARKET ANALYST, ACCREDITED PROPERTY INVESTMENT ADVISER, AND BUYER’S AGENT. PROPERTYOLOGY WORKS EXCLUSIVELY WITH PROPERTY INVESTORS TO PURCHASE PROPERTIES IN STRATEGICALLY CHOSEN LOCATIONS ALL OVER AUSTRALIA.
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Focus on the property investment fundamentals, not the name: Simon Pressley

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GUEST OBSERVER
The New South Wales region of Murrumbidgee has more than rich soils. The property markets of eight of the thirteen local government authorities which make up the region featured in the Top 20% of Australia’s best performed property markets over the last fifteen years.
The LGA of Coolamon, directly north of the region’s unofficial capital of Wagga Wagga, was the state’s best performed property market over the last fifteen years, ranked 6th in Australia. Coolamon has a modest population of 4,308 (ABS 2014) and is renowned for wheat, wool, and old-world charm. Median property values have increased by an average of 10.5% each year and were still a very affordable $162,500 as at December 2014. Average rental yields are 7.7%.
<a href="/images/2015/12/700_Murrumbidgee.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/700_Murrumbidgee.jpg" alt="">
Propertyology conducted a study to compare the historical property market performance of each of Australia’s 550 local government authorities between 2000 and 2014. Given that some property markets have higher rates of growth and others have higher rental yields, Propertyology calculated the ‘total return’ (average annual growth rate plus rental yield) and we then ranked the LGA’s from 1 to 550 based on this performance.
The Murrumbidgee region’s population of 145,000 people has been growing by less than 1% per year (below the national average of 1.5%) however, supply of new housing has been more controlled than bigger profile cities. Affordability, lifestyle, and an unemployment rate below the national average are behind the region’s strong performance.
The region contains one of the most productive and agriculturally diverse areas of Australia. The Murray and Murrumbidgee Rivers replenish the rich, fertile soils which produce over 25% of NSW's fruit and vegetables, 90% of NSW citrus products, and 80% of NSW wine/grape production. Rice, wheat, lamb and beef are also major commodities.
The LGA’s of Junee (ranked 44th), Temora (77th), Cootamundra (151st), Hay (164th), Lockhart (175th), Narrandera (187th), and Murrumbidgee (209th) all featured in Australia’s Top 20%.
The region’s three most populated LGA’s, Wagga Wagga (240th), Leeton (302nd), and Griffith (423rd) didn’t perform as strongly over the last fifteen years as their smaller profile neighbours.
Property sales volumes in parts of the region have been solid during 2014/15. Leeton saw a 15.6% increase in median house values to the year ending May 2015. That is as strong as any market in Australia, other than Sydney. 180 properties have been sold in the Leeton LGA over the last year, the highest level since 2009. With a median house price of $230,000 an investor could buy four properties in Leeton for the cost of one property in Metropolitan Sydney. And, Leeton’s 6% average rental yield is superior to all capital cities.  
Leeton is described as Australia's Rice Capital and is home to the SunRice headquarters. Freedom Foods, Berri Juices, Riverina Beef and Murrumbidgee Irrigation are other big employers for the LGA which has some of the most productive citrus, rice, grapes and wheat farms.
Temora (17.6% growth in median house price) and Murrumbidgee (6.5%) have also seen solid growth over the last year. Mild growth in Wagga Wagga (3.2%), Junee (3.7%), and Griffith (1.9%) and a small reduction of 2% in Narrandera are fairly typical of most of Australia during 2014/15.
With Australian agriculture well placed to prosper from opportunities which the Asian Century provides and the very affordable cost of housing within the region, Propertyology believes that the property market outlook for this region is solid. Markets like this have a tendency to produce steady growth year-on-year. While they don’t attract the fanfare of bigger profile cities they usually have less pronounced peaks and troughs and often perform better over time.
Of the 43 LGA’s which make up Greater-Sydney, Blacktown and Camden were the highest ranked with a middle of the road performance of equal 276th.
Simon Pressley is Managing Director of Propertyology, a REIA Hall Of Fame Inductee, property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Buyer’s Agent. <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/more-than-a-buyers-agent/" target="_blank">Propertyology works exclusively with property investors</a> to purchase properties in strategically chosen locations all over Australia.
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Murrumbidgee NSW property market scorecard: Simon Pressley

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GUEST OBSERVER
If there's one thing which really irks me most about property markets it's the long list of headline-chasing commentators who, each time they come public with a property opinion piece, do little more than demonstrate their limited knowledge on the complexities of property markets.
The recent Macquarie Wealth Management Aussie Macro Outlook report is a classic example. Citing a pending property oversupply and a slowdown in population growth, the report said “in terms of the price phase of the adjustment, we expect a measured 7.5% peak-to-trough decline in house prices over 2016 and into 2017, with a recovery commencing in 2H17”.
A day later, AMP couldn’t resist the urge to go one better with forecasts of a slide in property values of up to 10%.
Extraordinary jibberish by them both!
As if referring to one massive country that contains 550 different local government jurisdictions in eight states and territories as one big market isn’t laughable enough; to then try to predict a specific value that ‘the market’ will decline by is ridiculous. Why 7.5 or 10%? Why not 2% or 15%?
Unlike share markets, property markets do not have an ‘All Ords Index’. It’s not as if an investor can sink $10,000 of their savings in to a ‘Property Index’ that constitutes the cumulative value of properties within Australia’s biggest cities.
The problem with the likes of banks and economists is that many of their utterings are gross generalisations and are based on the premise that we do have a ‘Property Index’. Too often they make a diagnosis as a 'general practioner' which is often even less accurate than their monthly interest rate forecasting and only creates unhealthy drama in the lives of others. It’s irresponsible. These general practioners should stick to general economic commentary and leave the property economic commentary to the specialists. 
Exactly which ‘market’ are these general practioners referring to with their 7.5 to 10% decline in property values anyway? Is Doctor Macquarie referring to the Perth and Darwin markets which, at the very start of this year, Propertyology forecast would [and now are] declining. Is Doctor AMP referring to Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart which completely missed the boom and property values today are much the same as they were six years ago? My guess is that ‘Australia’ really means ‘Sydney and Melbourne’ and that they’ve probably given little thought to the remaining 61% of the country. Or, perhaps I missed the memo which referred to their exclusion from that co-called ‘Property Index’.
It would take real research to forecast the outlook of the hundreds of regional markets across the country where a significant eight million Australians elect to live and some exciting investment potential exists. This is one of the many limitations of general practitioners.
Whilst Australia’s population growth rate has eased, a growth rate to the year ending March 2015 of 1.4% is only marginally lower than the 1.5% national average over the last ten years. If Doctor Macquarie’s property market forecasting is based on the gross generalisation that ‘Australia’ actually means ‘Sydney and Melbourne’ as we suspect, they obviously haven’t looked at the facts close enough; the latest available capital city population data shows that Sydney’s growth rate of 1.8% is above its 1.5% annual average and Melbourne’s 2.3% population growth is also above its 2% average. ‘Oops’, I hear them utter. 
Many commentators [not Propertyology, mind you] are describing Brisbane as the number one place to invest in at the moment, yet its population growth of 1.7% is significantly below its ten-year average annual growth rate of 2.2%.
A specialist, as opposed to a general practioner, knows that the complex nature of property markets is much deeper than running the ruler over a few population figures; here’s plenty of research with substance to back this up.
Propertyology forecasts Melbourne to be Australia’s best performing capital city property market in 2016. It’s not a location that we’ll be investing in though. The property asset class requires a longer focus and our concerns with Melbourne’s economic profile were well documented earlier this year and nothing has changed. Dark clouds loom for Melbourne from 2017 onwards.
In regards to dwelling supply, those who have been listening will know that over the last couple of years Propertyology has warned that national building approval volumes are at all-time record levels. At a national level, over the two years ending July 2015 there were 416,141 new dwellings approved which equates to a 34% increase on the 310,797 for the two years ending July 2012.
The devil is always in the detail though. On a state-by-state basis, the biggest increases in building approvals have occurred in New South Wales (+63%), Western Australia (+55%), and Queensland (+45%). Victoria has consistently high building approval volumes for the last five years. On the other hand, supply has been better controlled in South Australia (+10%), Tasmania (-1%), and Canberra (- 21%). The wide range of results from supply data is just as prominent across regional cities.
‘Oops’, again.
Rounding out the trifecta of these gross generalisations are claims from general practioners that household incomes haven’t grown enough to sustain the increases in property prices over the last couple of years. Which of the 9.6 million Australian households would these generalisers be referring to? If they are going to generalise about wages showing a nominal increase over the last five years surely it’s relevant to at least factor in the 2.5% reduction in the cash rate which equates to an extra $11,250 in the household budget (based on a $450,000 home loan). In most of Australia, housing affordability has actually improved.
How many oops’s are we up to now?
Employment prospects in this country are much healthier than many scribes have given credit. Yes, the national unemployment rate has increased a bit but so has our population. Australia actually created 342,700 new jobs over the two years ending August 2015 but I don’t recall ever seeing that as a lead news story. Imagine what this (once) great country could achieve with less glass-half-empty people occupying the tabloids.
Another thing that the general practioners probably don’t realise is the unprecedented pipeline of infrastructure projects throughout the country which, pending greater cooperation from all levels of government, actually has the potential to supercharge Australia’s economy.
Affordability is definitely an issue for Australia’s most expensive city to live in, Sydney; that’s nothing new though. While a significant amount of new supply will hit Sydney’s market during the next couple of years, Propertyology’s research suggests that Sydney’s economy will remain very healthy for some years and property prices are likely to have a prolonged flat period. That’s one of the main reasons why Propertyology resisted the temptation to help clients invest in our biggest city.
Increased supply and a significant spike in investor home loans over the last two years is likely to result in property rents in Australia’s three biggest cities easing throughout 2016 and 2017.
Brisbane, Adelaide and Hobart will experience price growth next year while Perth and Darwin are likely to fall further and remain in a property trough for at least another year.
With 411 separate regional local governments throughout Australia there will always be mixed fortunes amongst the forgotten 35% of Australia’s population. The money trail which Propertyology is following is directly linked to the Asian Century; locations which we have identified for solid property market performance over the medium term have economies which contain a mix of agriculture, tourism, premium manufacturing, education, and health.
If these markets decline in value by 7.5 to 10% I guess the general practioners will be able to shout from the rooftops that there is such a things as a ‘Property Index’. I’ve put my money where my mouth is though and I can assure you that, before doing so, I did a lot more than look at very broad population and construction numbers.
 
Simon Pressley is Managing Director of <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">Propertyology</a>, REIA Hall of Fame Inductee, property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and Buyer’s Agent.
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Simon Pressley

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