EXPERT INSIGHT

Ahead of the definitive official read of the economy from the treasury in the budget on <a href="https://budget.gov.au/index.htm">Tuesday</a>, the Reserve Bank has given us two special insights into its own thinking in the space of 14 hours.

They suggest that (first) the economy is improving, and (second) the bank is not going to let up on driving that improvement, not for anything &mdash; including concern about climbing home prices &mdash; until it has pushed unemployment down and wage growth back up to where it believes it should be.

The first insight was in Deputy Governor Guy Debelle&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2021/sp-dg-2021-05-06.html">Shann Memorial Lecture</a> on Thursday night. The second was in Friday&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2021/may/pdf/statement-on-monetary-policy-2021-05.pdf">Statement on Monetary Policy</a>

Growth without inflation

The statement emphasised that the although the bank expects economic growth to bounce back fairly strongly, getting inflation back within the bank&rsquo;s 2-3% target band and getting wages growth up will take much longer

As the statement put it:

&quot;Despite the stronger outlook for output and the labour market, inflation and wages growth are expected to remain low, picking up only gradually.&quot;

On one measure just <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release">1.1%</a>, the lowest on record, underlying inflation is to climb to 1.5% over the course of 2021 before gradually climbing to close to 2% by mid 2023.

It&rsquo;s well short of the bank&rsquo;s target of 2-3% which is only likely to be achieved with much higher wages growth driven by much deeper inroads into unemployment.\

Those inroads will be easier to achieve if COVID is firmly under control.

The bank explicitly linked its forecasts of an improving economy to an assumption that Australia&rsquo;s vaccine rollout accelerates in the second half of the year. It could have added to that (but didn&rsquo;t) the importance of getting purpose-built quarantine facilities up and running.

Its baseline forecast has economic growth of 4% in the year to June 2022 and 3% in the year to June 2023.

But there is a fairly wide range around its downside and upside scenarios.

Economic growth might be as low as 2.5% or as high as 5% in 2022 and as low as 2% and as high as 3% in 2023.

Similarly, the unemployment forecast is somewhere between 4.25% and 5.25% by June 2022 and in a very wide range of 3.75% and 5.5% by June 2023.

These forecasts produce below-target inflation forecasts of between 1.5% and 2% in June 2022 and 1.5% to 2.25% in June 2023.

What the bank will do to help drive the upside scenario, and what else will need to happen, was laid out by Debelle in Thursday night&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2021/sp-dg-2021-05-06.html">Shann Memorial Lecture</a>.

The Debelle Doctrine

Adjectives like &ldquo;seminal&rdquo; are bandied about liberally these days, but for me, Debelle&rsquo;s speech on <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2021/sp-dg-2021-05-06.html">Monetary Policy During COVID</a> was a masterpiece.

He began by outlining the suite of measures the bank introduced from the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. They involved

<ul>
	<li>
	cutting the cash rate to a record low of 0.25% and then cutting it again to 0.1%
	</li>
	<li>
	undertaking to not increase the cash rate target until the bank is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2&ndash;3% target band
	</li>
	<li>
	cutting the rate paid on private banks&rsquo; exchange settlement balances with the bank to 0.1% and then to 0.0%
	</li>
	<li>
	buying enough three-year government bonds to target a yield of 0.25%, later <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-the-reserve-bank-is-going-to-bat-for-australia-like-never-before-149311">0.1%</a>
	</li>
	<li>
	guaranteeing to buy $5 billion of five-year and ten-year state and Commonwealth week-in week-out <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-the-reserve-bank-is-going-to-bat-for-australia-like-never-before-149311">whatever the economic circumstances</a>
	</li>
	<li>
	buying bonds as needed to address the &ldquo;dysfunction&rdquo; in the bond market
	</li>
	<li>
	offering banks cheap lending finance through a new <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/mkt-operations/term-funding-facility/overview.html">term funding facility</a>
	</li>
	<li>
	ensuring that the financial system has sufficient liquidity
	</li>
</ul>

Debelle methodically described how each of these measures are likely to flow through into economic activity.

That is, he articulated what economists call the &ldquo;transmission mechanism&rdquo; &mdash; how the measures work.

And then he delivered the setup for the punchline.

The tools the bank is using might affect all sorts of things, including house prices. But the bank plans to focus on just one thing &mdash; getting unemployment down until it gets inflation back up to its target band.

Then the punchline itself: the bank will do this even if it leads to higher house prices

<blockquote>
there are a number of tools that can be used to address the issue. But I do not think that monetary policy is one of the tools. Monetary policy is focussed on supporting the economic recovery and achieving its goals in terms of employment and inflation
</blockquote>

It was important to remember that while housing prices may not rise as fast without low interest rates, unemployment would definitely be materially higher without low interest rates.

Unemployment has serious consequences.

What it all means

The Debelle Doctrine is that the bank will focus on a narrow range of objectives, and will not be timid about using the tools in its arsenal to achieve them.

This may not be a seismic shift, but it is significant.

It gives the bank a much clearer focus; it gives others a much better way to judge how it is performing; and it makes clear that if the government is concerned about rising house prices, it&rsquo;ll have to do something itself (perhaps by tightening the tax rules governing capital gains and negative gearing).

Debelle produced a clear, precise, and authoritative statement of what the Reserve Bank can, should, and will do.

In a word, it was gubernatorial.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/160171/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" u="" width="1" wkje2jqm7="" />

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-the-rba-wants-to-cut-unemployment-and-nothing-not-even-soaring-home-prices-will-stand-in-its-way-160171">original article</a>.

The RBA suggest that (first) the economy is improving, and (second) the bank is not going to let up on driving that improvement, not for anything

The RBA wants to cut unemployment, and not even soaring home prices will stand in its way: Richard Holden

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EXPERT INSIGHT

After years of repeatedly <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-yet-another-year-of-steady-rates-whats-the-point-of-the-rba-inflation-target-110574">missing its inflation target</a> through too timid monetary policy, in the past week the Reserve Bank has decided to get tough.

Not only did it hold its closely watched <a href="https://rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/">cash rate</a> target steady at 0.10% at Tuesday’s board meeting, it ramped up its efforts to defend its separate 0.10% target for the three-year government bond rate in the face of a mini-revolt by bond traders.

A few weeks back, some of the traders in Australia and elsewhere got it into their heads that big borrowing by governments would force up bond rates - a relationship that was once thought to be clear cut but hasn’t held for some time.

The traders sold government bonds issued by Australia and other nations, which in the case of the bond market, <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/articles/bonds/07/price_yield.asp">forces up the bond interest rate</a>.

Then other traders piled on, partly because economic outlooks are improving and they thought governments might soon be issuing fewer bonds, and partly because they thought other traders might agree with the traders.

That’s right: “thought other traders might agree with the traders”.

<h2>Beauty contests can make markets mad</h2>

In financial markets you don’t make money by correctly guessing what will happen, you make it by correctly guessing what other traders think will happen.

One of the founders of modern economics, John Maynard Keynes, described it as a beauty contest in which judges are rewarded not for picking the most beautiful face, but for picking the face <a href="https://www.zeninvestor.org/keynesian-beauty-contest/">other judges</a> will think is the most beautiful.

It’s like the rules in <a href="https://www.liveabout.com/family-feud-brief-overview-1396911">Family Feud</a>.

The yield on Australian Commonwealth 10-year bonds climbed from 0.98% at the start of the year to 1.11% a month later, to an extraordinary 1.87% a month after that - a near-doubling in a matter of weeks.

Even the yield on three-year bonds, which the Reserve Bank has pledged to keep at <a href="https://theconversation.com/5-ways-the-reserve-bank-is-going-to-bat-for-australia-like-never-before-149311">0.10%</a> crept up to 0.13%.

Last Friday, the Reserve Bank fought back.

It bought extra bonds a day after completing its usual purchases on Thursday.

This Tuesday, in its statement after its monthly board meeting, it added nine words to its usual acknowledgement that “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-01">wage and price pressures remain subdued</a>”.

Those words were: “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-03">and are expected to remain so for some years</a>”.

And then it released a <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/mkt-operations/announcements/rba-purchases-of-government-securities-2021-03">separate statement</a> reiterating that when its A$100 billion program of buying $5 billion of government bonds each week expires in May it will launch another $100 billion program, taking the scheduled bond buying through to November.

Since the program began last November, the bank has bought $74 billion of bonds. Its message was that if traders thought it was within $26 billion of running out of ammunition, it had another $100 billion. It doubled <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-M8e1YYiQg">the size of its knife</a>.

The bank can’t afford to lose

Keeping control of rates is a fight the Reserve Bank has to win. When it announces a change in an interest rate, usually the <a href="https://rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/">cash rate</a>, it uses words along the lines of “<a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2020/mr-20-06">the board decided to lower the cash rate</a>,” implying that it can.

The more accurate words it <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2001/mr-01-17">used to use</a> were “the bank will be operating in the money market this morning to reduce the cash rate,” an admission that it could only try to move the cash rate, by trading in financial instruments.

So effective have its pronouncements become that in recent years it hasn’t needed to do much trading to move the cash rate - it has just announced the move knowing that traders will fall into line because it could buy or sell financial instruments if it wanted to.

If it loses a battle with traders over rates, what it says will have much less force.

It has the resources it needs to win

The bank will win whatever battle it chooses to fight because it has unlimited resources. Unlike traders, it can <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/unconventional-monetary-policy">create</a> as many Australian dollars as it needs in order to buy as many bonds as it needs.

So far it has chosen to defend its ground on the cash rate and the three-year bond rate. It wants both at 0.1%.

It said on Tuesday it would “not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3% target range”.

It added that for that to occur, wage growth will have to be “materially higher”, which would require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market.

And then the killer sentence, <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-03">the last</a>, aimed directly at the traders: “The Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest.”

Although it released the statement one day before Wednesday’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/gdp-is-v-shaped-but-not-yet-good-these-three-graphs-tell-the-story-156372">national accounts</a> that showed the economic recovery continuing, it would have been aware of what they were likely to show.

It remains resolute.<img alt="The Conversation" height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/156410/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important" t1tcsswdv="" width="1">

<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-holden-118107">Richard Holden</a>, Professor of Economics, <a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/unsw-1414">UNSW</a>

This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-in-the-battle-over-interest-rates-itd-be-unwise-to-bet-against-the-rba-156410">original article</a>.
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Richard Holden

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