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GUEST OBSERVATION
Conventional real estate wisdom says you should always sell your home first then buy. The wisdom follows that you need to know exactly what price you will achieve for your home to be able to set your budget for the next home.
This has been our advice in the past to ensure that clients don’t get caught out having two mortgages or require bridging finance during the changeover period in selling houses.
However, in the current Sydney property market, convention does not apply. The market is exceptionally strong and finding a suitable buyer at a solid price is almost assured. 
Sydney’s auction clearance rate on the weekend was 83% from 677 auctions, according to CoreLogic RP Data, and the clearance rate has been running at above 80% since the market re-ignited in February.   
There are frequent reports of properties going well over the reserve price at auctions in Sydney and we have witnessed many sales going above a reasonable price as two or more bidders battle it out.  With continuing low interest rates and Sydney’s chronic undersupply situation, there is nothing to suggest that the market will slow down anytime soon.
Buying a property first is a strategy that only works in a hot market.  It will give you certainty about your next address and will also help motivate you to get out there and find something suitable. As for selling your existing place, you can have confidence that there are plenty of other frustrated buyers out there looking for a home.  
The latest figures show that it takes just 29 days to sell a house in Sydney and 26 days for apartments. Compare this with Melbourne at 43 days for houses and 61 days for apartments (or Darwin with 106 days for houses and 117 days for apartments).
Which leads us to the next question: What happens if you just stay out of the market for now and wait till the buying frenzy subsides? 
Many buyers are no doubt questioning what will happen to prices in the future and wistfully hoping prices will drop at some point.  Over the past 25 years, research by Residex has shown that Sydney’s median house price has increased from $175,000 to $911,500 which represents an average rate of growth of almost 7% per annum.
Sydney tends to have very strong spurts of growth followed by slow growth or flat line pricing.  Even massive external shocks like the global financial crisis only put a small dent in Sydney’s long term upward trajectory – prices retracted just 5% then recovered significantly in subsequent years.
The frustration of Sydney home buyers is widespread.  A quality home in the inner and middle rings of Sydney may attract 50 to 100 groups inspecting and 10 to 15 registered bidders on auction day.  Yet just one of them will walk away smiling, while the others feel despondent wondering if they will ever find a property. 
The hassle of organising your solicitor to review the contract, getting pest and building inspections completed in time and arranging finance all goes to waste each time you miss out.  Then, you may well come up against other frustrated buyers on the next property.
Buyers are getting “buyer fatigue” having to inspect so many properties that end up out of reach. It’s tough out there!  Here’s my perspective on the range of emotions that buyers are feeling at the moment: it can be a roller coaster ride.
We are also seeing some buyers having to re-think their original plan.  If you have been out of the market for over a year, you may be very surprised to see just how much prices have moved.  Buyers and sellers are having to re-calibrate their expectations on pricing.  If you had your heart set on a specific suburb close to the kids’ schools and walk to shops, you may have to compromise now as the market has jumped (or find those extra dollars).
Our team of buyers agents have recently helped a number of clients find their next home and navigate this hot Sydney property market.  The common thread in their feedback was that they would not have been able to find the number of properties we shortlisted, work out fair value and then exchange with speed without our help.
The message is clear; Don’t be afraid to enter the market, do your research and be cautious about what you buy and how much you pay.  Many people are forward paying capital growth now just to get a foothold.  Think about the long term value of the property and who will buy it after you.
Rich Harvey is founder and managing director of <a href="https://www.propertybuyer.com.au/" target="_blank">www.propertybuyer.com.au</a>.
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In this Sydney market you need to rethink your strategy: Rich Harvey

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GUEST OBSERVATION
With all of the growth that property in Sydney experienced last year, you would expect there to be a correction over the coming year. A halt, a significant slowdown, anything to balance out the growth that saw the New South Wales capital experience value growth far and away beyond any other capital city in the country.
However, it seem there may be more to come. For anyone who has bought investment property in Sydney or is thinking of doing so, the latest releases from several experts indicate that capital gains can still be made in droves in the Harbour City.
Boys cry wolf while Sydney carries on 
In the 27 January SQM Research newsletter from sterling commentator Louis Christopher, he put paid to those decrying the Sydney market and anticipating its failure.
"Sooner or later they will be right but right now, a slowdown currently happening in Sydney? Hardly," he wrote. He says he spent the entire Christmas period meeting and speaking with agents and industry experts, all of whom had a busy holiday period for property.
Christopher does not see property growth dropping below 8% this year, especially if the interest rates fall. And given the Real Estate Institute of Australia's enthusiasm for a cash rate cut from the RBA because of the Consumer Price Index, this may just happen.
However, Christopher doesn't expect heavy growth to go on forever. While the predicted downturn hasn't happened yet, it may still happen in the coming years. This suggests that the near future could still be a good time to engage a buyers' agent and make an investment in Sydney property, while there are still gains to be made.
Brisbane behind, but Sydney's growth unbeatable
According to the Domain Group Home Price Report for the December quarter, Sydney's median house price rose 4.1%, while the median unit price rose 2.9%. This brought the final annual growth figures for homes and apartments to 14.1 and 10.4% respectively, head and shoulders above the competition.
Andrew Wilson, senior economist with Domain also noted that Sydney shows no signs of stopping this growth. Wilson is forecasting growth of between 7% to 10% for 2015.  Sydney’s median house price is now $873,000 and median apartment price $597,000. 
Not all suburbs will experience significant growth.  While low interest rates continue to support strong borrowing activity, investors and home buyers need to be careful to look at the long term value of the property they are buying.  Look for suburbs where there are good transport options, excellent schools, close to shops and where there is limited potential for over-development.  Many suburbs in Sydney could be rezoned for higher density so you don’t want to buy in areas where there is any possibility of over-supply.
While increasing prices means great returns on dwelling investment, the flipside is that buying a property becomes more expensive. 
Rich Harvey is an economist, investor and the CEO and founder of buyer's agency <a href="https://www.propertybuyer.com.au%20" target="_blank">Propertybuyer</a>.
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Is Sydney really still going strong?

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Over the last 24 months, Sydney's northern beaches have seen a flattening of the residential property market, but statistics and general market sentiment indicate that positive signs are ahead.
Although some suburbs such as Freshwater and Balgowlah have seen a 1.9% to -2.2% reduction in the value of apartment sales over the last year, according to Residex, house sales in many suburbs have witnessed minimal growth over the past 12 months, which is an improvement on the previous year.
Hence, it would appear that the northern beaches may have turned the corner as positive signs are apparent.
Property cycles see values swing according to supply and demand.
The northern beaches of Sydney offers a wonderful lifestyle, not too far from the city, with beautiful non-crowded beaches, waterways, golf courses, national parks, good schools, restaurants, boutique shops and a major retail shopping precinct.
It is not too far from other businesses and commercial districts such as Chatswood, Frenchs Forest and North Ryde.
The northern beaches provides a safe family environment in comparison to most other Sydney regions.
The majority of northern beaches suburbs have traditionally experienced a 10 year average growth of 6-7%, however, such growth figures are closer to 4% due to price corrections over the last three years.
What this means in real terms is that now is an excellent time to buy in the northern beaches.
There are so many positive factors and fundamentals that will see property prices here rise again – it’s cyclical and now is the best time in the cycle to buy.
Working exclusively as buyers’ advocates, I've noticed that the level of inquiry since early January was far stronger that the last 4 years.
In 2013 I have already seen a significant uplift of interest in the sub-$650,000 price bracket.
Some of this can be attributed to a lack of supply and increasing demand due to factors such as reduced interest rates and improving market confidence.
The housing market up to $1 million is also starting to improve, evident by increasing numbers at open homes and decreasing days on market.
This would provide an excellent opportunity for those wishing to upsize.
The prestige market in the northern beaches has seen a dramatic decline in value over the past three years, however, this would appear to have stabilised and we can expect some improvement in the coming year.
 The value for money that can be seen in the $2 million plus market is excellent in comparison to other Sydney regions.
Rich Harvey is a buyers’ agent and CEO of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertybuyer.com.au/">www.propertybuyer.com.au</a>
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It's a great time to buy on Sydney's northern beaches: Rich Harvey

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Many property investors get stuck on two or three properties and fail to progress up the property ladder.  You know in your heart that you need to build up a portfolio of properties if you really want financial freedom.  Buying just one or two investment properties is not going to cut it.  You need a bunch of quality properties to generate the cashflow you need for your lifestyle. 
You’ve read several property books or magazines and been to a few seminars to get the basics, but it’s still not happening.  You start to feel like there are some missing pieces to this property jigsaw puzzle.  You’ve seen stories about some really successful investors buying five, 10 or even 20 properties and start to think, “Is that really possible?” You might feel like a bit of a failure and get worried that things will never come together. 
Your friends and family might be saying, “Now is not the time to invest”, or “Things are just too uncertain”, or you’ve read some articles saying the resources boom is over. Then several bills come in, you find the hot water system in your investment property has just blown up and that the tenants in the other one are leaving. 
Whatever your circumstances, the super investor takes a different approach to the herd.
Here are six things that super investors do to make it happen: 
1. Value time
The super investor understands the value of time.  She realises time is much more valuable than money.  You can’t get time back.  Super investors use property investment to “buy” more time.  By investing in property now, you are investing in your own financial future that will give you more choices about work and lifestyle. They also leverage other people’s time, as this is finite. 
2. Set goals
Super investors love setting and achieving goals. It gives them a sense of purpose and destiny. They are not constrained by low-level thinking – they are motivated and energised to achieve worthwhile goals. Most of the people on the BRW Rich 200 list are people who worked hard, saved and invested in growth assets long enough to enjoy the benefits of goal setting. 
3. Have a strategic mindset
How you think about yourself and others plays a significant role in how things turn out. Are you a glass half full or empty person?  I say plan for the worst but expect the best.  You do need both types of thinking to be a super investor, but it doesn’t mean you need
to mope around the house with a worried expression all the time. The super investor engages in strategic thinking, researches extensively and considers the long term. 
4.  Take action
To be successful in property investment, you not only need the knowledge, you need the courage to take action. Knowledge is not power unless you use it. Most people that go to seminars and read books do not do anything. They gain the theoretical knowledge, but very few use it themselves. 
5. A system
Abraham Lincoln said “If I had eight hours to chop down a tree, I’d spend the first six hours sharpening my axe.” The same applies to property investors – getting the right systems and strategies. Super investors repeat what works and refine what doesn’t. 
6.  Use a team of experts
The super investor has quickly discovered the power of leverage via other experts.  Trying to do everything yourself will tie you up in knots. A critical person on your team is a licensed buyers’ agent. They can help you develop a strategy, perfect for your personal situation. Buyers’ agents can quickly shortlist the top suburbs for growth or yield using sophisticated research tools. They can uncover off-market deals, new listings and hot properties via their established networks. To understand a local property market can take the average investor months, but using a buyers’ agent can take days.  They can help you negotiate and appraise the property for the lowest possible price and protect you from making bad property decisions. 
To be a super investor is not a pipe dream – it just takes courage and the ability to choose your team of advisors wisely.
Rich Harvey is founder and managing director of Sydney buyers' agency <a href="https://www.propertybuyer.com.au/" target="_blank">PropertyBuyer</a>
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Six ways to build a property investment portfolio

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Over the last 11 years as a buyers’ agent and being involved with more than 1,000 transactions, I have seen an incredibly wide range of buying emotions associated with each purchase.  I have found that there are three distinct types of buyers: 
<ol>
<li>
Active Buyers – these buyers have a positive self-image, take the initiative and seek out the best deals by researching extensively.  They are regularly looking at their financial position and willing to calculate the returns and mitigate the risks.  They have a plan and end goal with their property investing. They expect the property to perform well and review the rents at least yearly. They are usually time-poor, leveraging the search function out to a buyers’ agent.  As soon as they have some equity or additional cash they are looking to expand their portfolios.</li>
<li>
Reactive Buyers – these buyers take action only when prompted and realise often too late that to achieve their financial goals they should have started five years ago.  Reactive buyers often suffer from “paralysis of analysis” and try to gather up so much information that they end up getting confused.  The reactive buyers need reliable information to make decisions but take a long time to get their act together.  They might respond to a special offer and think that just buying one or two investment properties will get them to financial freedom rather than embarking on a specific plan.</li>
<li>
Passive Buyers – these buyers sit on sidelines and watch others make money, thinking they should do something but lack the motivation to get going.  They are less trusting of others and need proof that property investing actually works.  They fear failure and therefore procrastinate rather than taking action.  They are wary of real estate agents and believe the world is full of sharks ready to devour them.  They are very frugal with money but still want to achieve financial security. </li>
</ol>
Which one best describes you? 
What are your personal property goals for 2012 and beyond?  Are you seeking to upgrade and find your dream home?  Do you want to create a portfolio of 10 properties that pays you $120,000 per year and provides you financial freedom?  Perhaps you haven’t really set a goal yet or perhaps it’s something you’ll get around to later because it seems like too much hard work to research the right kind of properties. 
In buying a home or investment property, you are likely to encounter a whole range of emotional highs and lows.  I have developed a “Cycle of Property Emotions”.
<img src="/images/stories/richharveyfeb10.jpg">
When starting out I see buyers full of optimism and confidence and with high expectations of finding the perfect home or deal of the decade.  The buyer approaches the search with enthusiasm, believing that the search will show up hundreds of excellent properties. One is found, bought and the champagne is popped for the celebrations (jubilation!). 
However, buyer’s remorse and worry soon kicks in when the buyer discovers a few cracks in the wall (or the tenant missed a week’s rent).  You start to get nervous and have a few restless nights wishing you had done more due diligence before signing the contract. You become alarmed when reading a negative media article that suggests there is a property bubble and prices are 40% over valued.  This gives way to dread and panic starts to set in as you think, “perhaps I really have made a terrible mistake and should have stuck my money under the mattress”.  Depression overcomes you when you consider how long it took to save up the deposit.  Shadows of gloom appear when you remember you have to explain yourself to your accountant in July.  But then the market begins to turn, some positive stories come out, interest rates drop a little and the future is looking bright again. This gives way to relief that you didn’t sell the property prematurely and holding for the long term was OK and provides the confidence to buy once again. 
Whatever stage of the property buying cycle you are at, be aware of the range of emotions that you are likely to experience.  Consider your overall strategy and don’t be reactive to something that can be managed, like a bad tenant.  It’s important to manage your emotions during the buying cycle.  Many of our clients have commented that they found having a buyers’ agent on their side helped them ride the rollercoaster of emotions and stopped them making expensive mistakes.
Rich Harvey is founder and managing director of Sydney buyers' agency <a href="https://www.propertybuyer.com.au/" target="_blank">PropertyBuyer</a>
 
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The three types of property buyers and the cycle of emotion in buying a property

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The National Market
This year is set to be a year of recovery and consolidation for most Australia property markets, but Sydney is predicted to be a better performer of the capital cities.  Some areas will enjoy solid growth driven by latent demand or resource drivers while other areas will languish.  Last year’s market was dominated by natural disasters, mixed economic signals and fragile consumer sentiment.  Australian Property Monitors noted that national median house prices were down by 4.2% but are predicted to rise by 3% to 5% in 2012.  Sydney’s median house price only declined -0.9% last year compared with -3.1% in Brisbane, -1.2% in Melbourne, -2.2% in Perth, -1.4% in Adelaide and -3.5% in Darwin. 
The national economy is set to grow strongly on the back of mining and resources sector.  Treasury estimates are for around 3% to 4% growth in GDP (much to the envy of the developed world). Immigration is likely to increase as the demand for skilled workers intensifies from economic growth.  This will flow onto increased housing demand. Affordability will continue to be an issue for households on average incomes.  However, interest rates are likely to decline in the first quarter of this year, which will improve market confidence and turnover. I’m tipping around a 0.5 percentage point reduction in rates this year. 
The traditional spring selling season in 2011 did not eventuate. It was more of a fizzle and pop with lacklustre results. Auction rates hovered around 50% to 60% during 2011. Year on year results from October showed Sydney’s median house price fell 2.3% as reported by Australian Property Monitors. In contrast, Rismark International house price model recorded a 0.5% decline in median house prices over the year to the end of November. Sydney was one of the most resilient property markets of all capital cities over 2011. Brisbane and Melbourne recorded 7% and 5.6% decreases over the same period. Rismark International recorded a very small 0.1% increase in national house prices in November, which is signaling a projected rebound in property prices. 
The Sydney market
The <place><city>Sydney</city></place> market for 2012 looks more positive. Sydney has several reasons to smile compared with other states:
<ul>
<li>NSW and Sydney is still the most fundamentally undersupplied market (we need approximately 60,000 extra dwellings but we are currently only building half that).</li>
<li>Interest rates are set to fall at least another 0.5 percentage points.</li>
<li>Unemployment remains low at 5.2% so job security is helping mortgage holders pay down more debt and increase their equity buffer. However, with uncertain global financial markets unemployment may nudge upward to 5.5%. </li>
<li>The NSW government is getting on with the job of rebuilding transport infrastructure (and not just re-announcing it in press releases). The north-west rail link is first major infrastructure project to get the go-ahead. This will benefit the north-west area around Castle Hill significantly. </li>
<li>The Barangaroo project has commenced to revitalise the commercial dock areas on the west side of the city.</li>
<li>Commercial property values are also predicted to rise on the back of previous inactivity. </li>
<li>Sydney’s climate, lifestyle and natural attractions continue to place the city as one of the best places to live in the world – it’s hard to beat the early morning swim or surf on the way to work!</li>
<li>
<city><place>Sydney</place></city> is poised for more growth on the back of latent demand from upgraders and downsizers that have been sitting on the sidelines. </li>
<li>Rents have been rising strongly due to low vacancy rates around 1.3% on average. </li>
<li>Overall, 2012 is set to be a year of recovery for the property market. </li>
</ul>
I’m tipping that Sydney’s median price will rise by around 5% in 2012 given falling interest rates (and barring any other catastrophic economic event). This growth will largely come from the lower to middle segments of the market. 
The prestige market will continue languish – providing excellent opportunities for upper-end buyers. With a subdued share market, the level of executive bonuses is limited and buyers are cherry picking the stock that is available at the top end of the market. 
The potential impact of fallout from the European debt crisis continues to plague consumer confidence. If credit markets are affected, then property price growth will be subdued in <country-region><place>Australia</place></country-region> because the cost of bank funding will be higher.  If credit flows more easily then property prices have more ability to rise. 
Where to buy…
The east is likely to have a subdued year ahead, making it an opportune time to enter this market if you want to buy with less competition. The inner west of Sydney will continue to perform strongly due to price differential with the eastern suburbs. It contains a host of suburbs ripe for renovation and its proximity to the city is favourable to commuters looking for a shorter journey to work. 
Pockets on the northern beaches and north shore with median prices under $1 million will also do well, as “affordability” is one of the key factors driving demand for dwelling types.
Sydney’s western suburbs are likely to outperform the middle- and inner-ring suburbs on a percentage basis as they are coming off a low base. We are finding and creating excellent positive cashflow opportunities for savvy property investors in these areas with yields up to 10%. 
Good quality apartments close to the CBD will continue be in high demand as downsizers, professionals and first-home buyers compete for limited stock of established properties.
Rich Harvey is founder and managing director of Sydney buyers' agency <a target="_blank" href="https://www.propertybuyer.com.au/">PropertyBuyer</a>
For more expert predictions on what lies in store for Australia's property markets in 2012, download our free eBook <a target="_blank" href="http://propertyobserver.com.au/ebooks/free-ebook-property-forecasts-for-2012">Property Forecasts for 2012</a>.
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Rich Harvey

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