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EXPERT OBSERVER
There are always some businesses and individuals that do well out of a downturn, and the same can be said for property.
Some markets will be hit but not every market will be impacted in the same way.
While it is still very uncertain how much prices will fall, rising unemployment and problems in the rental market suggest that eventually they will.
The areas most at risk are those that feature large amounts of rental apartments. In contrast, premium suburbs and big homes on big blocks are still seeing high levels of activity on realestate.com.au and a drop in listings suggests bargain hunters may be disappointed.
While falling home values usually improve affordability, it is only helpful if people are still in a financially secure position to purchase them.
Without a job, cheap housing is still unaffordable.
Without a secure job, banks may be less inclined to lend. We’re yet to see the impact of COVID-19 on house prices, and while we can safely assume that they won’t rise in the next few months, they won’t necessarily fall by a meaningful amount either.
NERIDA CONISBEE <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/news/author/nerida-conisbee/" target="_blank">is the chief economist for the REA Group</a>
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COVID-19 is unlikely to improve housing affordability: REA's Nerida Conisbee

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The stage is well and truly set for the return of theatrical home sales in New South Wales, after the state government lifted restrictions on in-person auctions and open-for-inspections this weekend.
Real estate agents are back to selling homes in an environment that maximises their performance and prospective homebuyers have been able to inspect properties more easily.
The Northern Territory lifted restrictions on live auctions and open-for-inspections last weekend, while up to 10 people are allowed to inspect homes in Western Australia.
A return to the usual ways that people can buy, sell and rent property is the best news for the industry since mid-March, but the real benefit will come once we see increased real estate listings.
A big challenge for Australia’s economic recovery will be confidence, and right now, listing volumes are still well down.
Listings are down but buyer search activity is up
Since the weekly low over a month ago, buyer search activity on realestate.com.au has increased by 46 per cent nationally and is now flowing through to buyer enquiry.
Enquiry is now up 24 per cent compared to the same time last year. While the connection between buyer enquiry and transactions is not an exact one, it does show greater intent to purchase than searches alone.
There are many factors driving this uptick including a relatively low number of active COVID-19 cases, a stable banking system, incredible levels of government stimulus, and importantly, the gradual opening of the economy.
Interest in commercial farming surges ahead
Buyer interest in all commercial property types dropped in April with the exception of commercial farming.
Compared to April last year, demand (views per listing) is now up 22 per cent. At the other end of the commercial property spectrum, retail demand dropped 37 per cent and office demand declined 30 per cent.
Interest in commercial farming is likely to be partly driven by COVID-19. Unlike shopping centres and offices, which are experiencing high numbers of closed stores and empty spaces, farms are still operational, and people still need food.
Other factors also playing a role in commercial farming demand include the weak Australian dollar and the drought breaking,. Many buyers are also looking beyond seasonal and commodity cycles when purchasing.
Western Australia is attracting the most interest while South Australia is the only state with a decline in activity. During the drought, some WA commercial farms were recording bumper conditions contrasting what was happening on the eastern seaboard.
Homes are selling faster compared to last year
Interesting data looking at days on site from realestate.com.au outlines just how quickly homes are selling at the moment compared to the same time last year.
Seasonality often impacts how quickly properties sell. For example, selling a home in January generally takes longer than in September, which is also consistent with broader market activity.
Since COVID-19 lockdowns started in mid-March, days on site – the number of days a listing was active on realestate.com.au to the date it was delisted due to being sold – has increased.
However, this increase is not unusual and is typical of what we see in April given the Easter holiday period, as well as Anzac Day.
Encouragingly, days on site in April 2020 were far lower than what they were in April 2019. It is likely that the low number of properties for sale, combined with increasing levels of search and enquiry, are driving this trend.
NERIDA CONISBEE <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/news/author/nerida-conisbee/" target="_blank">is the chief economist for the REA Group</a>
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Listings are down but buyer search activity is up: REA's Nerida Conisbee

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Foreign students unable to get into Australia is a blow to Australia’s education sector with Universities Australia estimating that over the next three years, universities will lose over $16 billion due to COVID-19. With 25% of all tertiary students from overseas, this has flow on not only to university coffers but to the wider economy.
For property, the rental market was hit immediately as a result of COVID-19. The number of available rental properties jumped as students didn’t return to campus and short-stay listings were instead leased on the long-term market. Airbnb is slowly getting back to business with domestic tourism starting again but there are problems arising for investors. Particularly, in areas that already had weak rental demand (primarily apartments in western and south-western Sydney), as well as areas with high proportions of rental housing aimed at students.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/5/REA%20vacancy.JPG" alt="">
Not surprisingly, the areas that are most at risk are those that are close to large universities. Melbourne CBD, Clayton and Carlton have seen big increases in properties listed for rent on realestate.com.au, of which a number are aimed at students. In many of these locations we are starting to see a steady rise in properties for sale. Property owners may not yet be in distress but no doubt many are worried about the possibility of a continued deterioration of these rental markets. The potential for mortgage repayment relief stopping in September is problematic, particularly as it’s unlikely foreign students will be back before then.
NERIDA CONISBEE is the Chief Economist at the REA
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University suburbs’ are suffering from COVID-19: REA's Nerida Conisbee

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EXPERT OBSERVER
A comparatively low number of mortgagee sales hints at positivity for the property market, however, levels of home owner distress may be revealed in coming months.
Meanwhile, demand for homes outside of capital cities continues to soar as buyers search for property in regional Australia.
No signs of distress a positive for property
There are many levels of distress in property markets but one of the most extreme circumstances is when the bank takes ownership of your home and it becomes a mortgagee sale. Positively, the number of mortgagee sales is currently very low (only five listed on realestate.com.au) and they are in fact lower than at the same time last year.
The biggest decline in mortgagee sales has surprisingly been for apartments. Although we are seeing rising listings in areas with large numbers of apartments, those listings aren’t mortgagee sales. While this is good news on the surface, some owners may be in challenging situations but just haven’t moved to the highest level of distress yet.
It’s worth noting that although we haven’t seen high levels of distress yet, we may start to see this increase in the coming months. The mortgage payment freezes being offered by many banks will come to an end and unemployment doesn’t look like it is going to rapidly decrease any time soon.
More positively, banks are still well capitalised and are more likely to work with home owners under stress rather than take possession of their homes. We are also not seeing rapid declines in house prices so that will help ensure that home owners aren’t left with a bigger loan than the house is worth if they need to sell.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/5/REA%20mortgagee.JPG" alt="">
NERIDA CONISBEE is the Chief Economist at the REA
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Low number of distressed property sales, for now at least: REA's Nerida Conisbee

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EXPERT OBSERVER
When considering commercial property, you may think you need a lot of money, and most commercial property is indeed expensive. However, there are bargains to be had.
The majority of the cheapest listings sold on realcommercial.com.au in the past 12 months were storage units and regional development sites, some even with incomes.
The third cheapest commercial listing sold in the past 12 months – a development site in Brigalow – included a billboard, which was reported as earning $13,000 per annum. Not bad for a $36,000 purchase price.
The 10th cheapest – an office suite in Dandenong – is leased for $5,700 per annum, which again, isn’t a bad yield on a $57,000 purchase.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/1/Cheap%20commercial.JPG" alt="">
NERIDA CONISBEE <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/news/author/nerida-conisbee/" target="_blank">is the chief economist for the REA Group</a>
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What commercial property is selling for bargain prices? REA's Nerida Conisbee

Limited signs of distress in commercial property so far: REA's Nerida Conisbee

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EXPERT OBSERVER
As Australian house hunters wade through the economic uncertainties brought on by COVID-19, it seems many are hoping to stumble upon a bargain.
We are yet to see any dramatic shift in house prices despite some economists predicting increases as well as major price falls – some even say the falls are already occurring.
Nevertheless, house hunters appear to be preparing to strike when the iron is hot, which is evidenced in very high levels of buyer search activity on realestate.com.au during the health crisis.
They might get what they’re hoping for in spring when financial supports from the Federal Government and the banks – which are largely keeping the property market afloat – grind to a halt.
Characteristics Australians look for in properties under $400K
The average property seeker on realestate.com.au shows a strong preference for a house with four bedrooms, two bathrooms and two car parks.
For those looking at cheaper homes – under $400K – houses are still preferred, but the greater availability of cheaper apartments means many will end up looking at apartments. Preferences for cheaper houses are three bedrooms, two bathrooms and one car park.
Perhaps the only consistency between both buyer types is air conditioning and secure parking, with these features being the most popular for both.
Beyond that, regular buyers show a much stronger preference for a swimming pool while bargain hunters are satisfied with built-in-robes.
Most in-demand affordable suburbs and properties
Every city has affordable suburbs, but Adelaide and Hobart top the list for the most in demand. Rosewater in Adelaide, only 10km from the Adelaide CBD and containing some lovely period homes, is currently the most in-demand affordable suburb in Australia.
Coming in at number two is New Town in Hobart where it might not be possible to purchase a house for under $400,000, but you can certainly get a unit. Not a bad price for waterside living. 
<div class="flourish-embed flourish-table" data-src="visualisation/2595461?206536" data-url="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/2595461/embed"><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/1/REA%20MAY%2031.JPG" alt=""></div>
If $400,000 is out of the budget, and rural living isn’t an issue, <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-sa-kadina-130477510" target="_blank">an ultra-cheap one bed, one bath, and one car is available in Kadina</a> – 150km from Adelaide – for $35,000. Marketed as unliveable and unsafe to walk through, the 950sqm of land may appeal.
NERIDA CONISBEE <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/news/author/nerida-conisbee/" target="_blank">is the chief economist for the REA Group</a>
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What bargain buyers want the most: REA's Nerida Conisbee

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EXPERT OBSERVER
With Australians now having to holiday domestically, perhaps a local ski resort chalet might be on the minds of property seekers.
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<img class="sc-qYHHM dyhwPj size-full wp-image-596037" src="https://www.realestate.com.au/blog/images/800x500-fit,progressive/2020/07/04174529/thredbo.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="500"><div class="sc-pTFCl bXqHjO">
This property in Thredbo is recently under offer. Picture: realestate.com.au
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Thredbo is currently the most popular ski resort for property seekers in Australia, closely followed by Falls Creek.
There are too few sales to see if COVID-19 has impacted pricing at these resorts but we can see that the most viewed property in Thredbo is <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-alpine-nsw-thredbo-131373914" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">3/8 Cascades Close</a><a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-alpine-nsw-thredbo-131373914"></a>.
It features iconic chalet wooden panelling appropriate for an Alpine getaway and is all yours for $790,000.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/5/REA%20ski%20resort.JPG" alt="">
NERIDA CONISBEE is the Chief Economist at the REA
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Thredbo the most popular ski resort for property seekers: REA's Nerida Conisbee

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Search activity on realestate.com.au has seen a bigger jump in views per listing for regional parts of Australia than for capital cities. This is likely to be explained by COVID-19 as people are perhaps looking for bigger places to live and aren’t currently tied to a central workplace. Longer term, acceptance of flexible working does mean that living in a capital city may no longer be necessary. 
<img class="sc-qYHHM dyhwPj size-full wp-image-594332" src="https://www.realestate.com.au/blog/images/800x500-fit,progressive/2020/06/27164223/dural-property.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="500">
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It appears that during COVID-19, affordability may be of less importance to property buyers in regional areas and that lifestyle factors are becoming more important. To this point, the most viewed property listing on realestate.com.au in Australia this week is a <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-acreage+semi-rural-nsw-dural-132147574" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">property in Dural</a> (pictured above), which has received almost 300,000 views. 
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While broadly, regional Australia has seen an uplift, what is also interesting is the regions that have jumped up in popularity. We tend to see certain areas always being far more popular. Mornington Peninsula, while not technically regional, tops the list, which is driven by a great lifestyle and easy access to Melbourne. Central Coast and Illawarra are consistently in the top three. Both are similarly close to Sydney, have nice beaches and are relatively affordable.
The biggest change has been the two areas that have dropped off the list – Ballarat and south-east Tasmania – and the two that have pushed up – Richmond-Tweed and Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven. The two new additions offer some of the most expensive regional properties in Australia while the ones that have dropped off were affordable.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/7/5/REA%20MAY%202020.JPG" alt="">
NERIDA CONISBEE is the Chief Economist at the REA
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Flexible working leading to demand for property in regional Australia

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Remember when our retail spend was shifting from buying things to buying experiences? That was only four months ago.
Since then, Australians have been spending more at supermarkets and on consumer electronics than on apparel and at department stores. Our expenditure on experiences, in particular travel, has been almost non-existent. It was therefore interesting to hear that in China there has been a rebound in luxury spending post COVID-19 lockdowns.
(Spending excessively after a period when one has had limited opportunities to spend has emerged after the lockdown, where in several Chinese cities, consumers flocked the various brand outlets to beat the lockdown blues.)
The most recent retail trade data for May did show an element of ‘revenge spending’ by Australian consumers. After plunging 17.7% in April, spending bounced back 16.3% in May. June is likely to look similarly positive, although, the Melbourne lockdowns are likely to start to drag it back again in July.
At the beginning of the first lockdown in mid-March, I thought that the most impacted property sector would be shopping centres, but it has remained surprisingly resilient despite the enormous challenges for retailers.
While the sector has remained somewhat resilient, the vacancy rate has risen. According to JLL, the national average shopping centre vacancy rate rose to 5.1% in June from 3.8% six months earlier. This rate excluded temporary closures.
By far the most impacted precincts have been CBDs where the vacancy rate has now hit 10%. Working from home has been disastrous for CBD retailing. The other big shift has been the acceleration of online retailing. In a three-month time period, it has gone from 9% of retail sales to 10.5%. Not exactly a runaway pace but a sharp increase over a short time period.
For now, our expenditure on travel, eating out and entertainment outside the home is likely to remain far more muted. Meanwhile expenditure at supermarkets and on takeaway food is likely to be far more positive. While I can’t see myself rushing out to buy luxury brands any time soon, the rush to the shops in China is hopefully a good news story for shopping centres over the next 12 months.
NERIDA CONISBEE is the Chief Economist at REA
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Nerida Conisbee

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