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Like a B-movie horror flick villain that refuses to die, the first-home owner grant will limp into the new financial year to haunt us all despite the Victorian Treasurer’s valiant efforts in his May budget to curtail this beast.
Yes, the $7,000 grant for established property will be phased out on 1 July. But it will be increased from $7,000 to $10,000 for newly constructed homes.
I’m no fan of grants or concessions that distort the property market. I’ve been railing against the FHOG since it was introduced back in July 2000 ostensibly to offset the effect of the GST on home ownership. In its original guise, the FHOG was a national scheme funded by the states and territories and administered under their own legislation, with a one-off grant of up to $7,000 payable to first home owners that satisfied all the eligibility criteria.
Since then, this scheme has been tinkered with remorselessly to become the Frankenstein’s monster I alluded to earlier.
The scheme is meant to make property more affordable for first home buyers. Unfortunately, experience shows that the grants don’t achieve this end.  Instead, the nominal increase in purchasing power it delivers to first home buyers transmits directly into higher prices for the properties they hope to buy.
The real beneficiaries are the vendors of properties that first timers buy. It would have been simpler if the State Revenue Office of Victoria, who administers the grant, posted the grant cheque direct to the vendor!
The fact that the grant was economic lunacy – and costly to governments’ coffers to boot – didn’t seem to bother politicians in the noughties when state governments were basking in pre-GFC budget surpluses. But now that state treasurers across the country are struggling with fiscal deficits, one by one, they’ve been winding back the FHOG.
Victoria is just the latest.  More focus is now going to providing grants for new property. At first blush this seems like a good idea. The grant has been amended so that it boosts supply – by encouraging the construction of new apartments and houses – as well as demand.
However, I am concerned that there will be serious unintended consequences. The grant will continue to distort market conditions and performance. It will artificially skew property data, especially median values, possibly enough to make them virtually meaningless if the stock level is very high.
And, most worryingly, it will encourage many first-home buyers who otherwise would have opted for existing stock to purchase new and off-the-plan properties.
Why is that problem? Well, I’m afraid that many of these first home buyers will come to regret their decision.
Let me be blunt: much of the off-the-plan property under development is usually in windy Docklands or in fringe suburbs poorly serviced by transport; many properties are poorly built and deteriorate quickly; and, ultimately, many first home buyers and investors will lose money when they come to sell these properties in a few years because of developers’ need to cover their extensive marketing costs and to extract a profit.
In short, these properties are invariably over-priced in the first place relative to what they would sell for in an open market. Further, when the first time owner goes to sell the property, they will be competing against a glut of similar properties. We all know what happens when you’re faced with a buyer’s market!
I’m hoping that this is the penultimate chapter in the grant saga, and that sanity will finally prevail and we can get politically bipartisanship to kill it off. But I’m not holding my breath.
Monique Sasson Wakelin is director at <a href="https://wakelin.com.au/" target="_blank">Wakelin Property Advisory</a>.
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Slow demise of first-home owner grant schemes: Monique Sasson Wakelin

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In light of the very low inflationary outlook, weak GDP numbers and softening employment outcomes, the case for the interest rate cut was overwhelming.
It will provide a welcome stimulus across the Australian economy.
Given the level of borrowings and interest rate sensitivity in the property sector, interest rate cuts tend to have a disproportionate benefit for investors and home buyers.
Further, the cut comes at a time when we are entering a new property cycle after 18 months of sluggish performance including 5% to 10% national decline in values across the residential sector. Following the two cuts in November and December, I expect today’s 50-basis-point cut to magnify the cyclical upswing in the property market, delivering price growth at some point in 2012.
I expect the boost to be felt most in the lower, sub-$600,000 price range, as this is where home buyers and entry-level investors usually have the least equity so are most sensitive to changes in interest rate settings.
In addition, this cut may spur those wishing to trade up into action. Reduced borrowing costs will increase the likelihood of upgraders paying more to secure the property of their choice.
Given the banks propensity to lift rates independently of the Reserve Bank in recent times, I believe it is incumbent on them to pass the cut on in full.
At a minimum, the banks need to pass on around two-thirds to three-quarters of the cut to see a necessary impact on confidence and buying power transmitted to the property market.
Monique Sasson Wakelin is the director of <a target="_blank" href="https://wakelin.com.au/">Wakelin Property Advisory</a>. Wakelin Property Advisory is an independent firm specialising in acquiring residential property for investors.
 
 
 
 
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RBA interest rate cut to be felt most in the sub-$600,000 housing market

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Don’t invest in apartments without a car park: Monique Sasson Wakelin
Property investors should avoid buying an apartment that does not come with a parking space, says investment adviser Monique Sasson Wakelin.
Sasson Wakelin says there are plenty of developers and estate agents “flogging carspaceless apartments” who are happy to tell would-be investors that it is a good idea to buy these sorts of properties.
“They talk about the paradigm shift away from car ownership and all those tenants happy to limit car use to the occasional hire vehicle for weekends away,” she says in a News Limited newspaper column.
But while there are some people who are happy not to own a car, they remain in the minority.
Wakelin says this is borne out in the 2011 census data, which shows that more than four-fifth (81%) of households own one or more cars.
Among those who live in apartments and flats, the figure is slightly lower at 75%.
Sasson Wakelin says her advice has remained steadfastly constant on this issue: “Don’t handicap your investment property by restricting the pool of potential tenants and future owners. A car park space is a must."
Delving further into the census data shows that 77% of Australian use a motorised vehicle to get to work and only 12% take public transport – the rest cycle, walk or work from home.
But Sasson Wakelin says investors being close to public transport is still important for an investment property.
She says being close to public transport is a “major plus” for investors because 1.7 million Australians work in the city or in the surrounding inner suburbs, making it “neither desirable nor feasible for everyone to drive to their place of work”.
Demand for property remains high in suburbs that have good public transport options because it means they can choose between their car and catching a bus, train, tram or ferry, says Sasson Wakelin.
 
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Investing in an apartment without a car park can make good sense: Savills’ David Poppleton writes in response
There are occasion when buying an apartment without a car parking space would make good sense, says David Poppleton, head of residential projects in NSW for Savills.
Poppleton says it’s very much a “case by case” issue depending on where the apartment is located relative to public transport and the city and the type of alternative property the investor is considering.
"I'd rather by an apartment (one bed or studio) in Potts Point, Surry Hills, Ultimo, etc, without a car than the same  apartment with a car space anywhere outside a five-kilometre radius of the city," he says.
He tells Property Observer it is perhaps “misguided or even slightly negligent to suggest” that investors dismiss the right property without a car space for one that does have a car space if it does not stack up as a better investment.
His comments follow property investment advisor <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/landlords/dont-invest-in-apartments-without-a-car-park-monique-sasson-wakelin/2012112258047" target="_blank">Monique Sasson Wakelin</a> writing that a car space is “a must” and that investors should not handicap themselves by buying a property “restricting the pool of potential tenants and future owners”.
Sasson Wakelin based her comments on census 2011 data, which shows that more than four-fifth (81%) of households own one or more cars.
Poppleton agrees that it would be “flawed advice at best” if an agent suggested buying a two-bedroom apartment away from transport and five kilometres from the city that did not have a car space.
But he says suggesting that investors avoid all apartments without car spaces “ignores the statistics, affordability, and the government’s growing obsession to reduce the number of cars in every residential project in prime areas”.
Poppleton also points to other statistics unearthed by Wakelin that show that in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer">Sydney </a>CBD and inner suburb of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer">Haymarket </a>67% and 62% respectively of apartment households do not own cars, which suggest that there are locations where a car space would not be  priority.
He says if it came to the choice of buying a studio in the Sydney CBD versus a period unit in a prime urban area of Brisbane, he would put his money on the Sydney studio being a better investment.
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Room for Debate: Should you dismiss an investment property without a car spot?

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We are, by many accounts, living in the Asian century; a time when the nations of the world’s largest continent, led by China, will dominate the global economic, social and cultural landscape. In light of the enormous strides since just the turn of the millennium by the likes of China, South Korea and India, and the rise of brands like Samsung and Lenovo, it’s not a forecast I wish to contest (although forgive me if I don’t extrapolate too much from the success of Gangnam Style!)
From a property investor’s perspective, the more pertinent and contestable issue is whether and how Asian-based or –migrant buyers will impact the Australian residential property market and how one can profit from this phenomenon.
There are, of course, hundreds of developers out there currently marketing Australian properties to overseas buyers. We know this because non-resident, non-citizens (overseas buyers) and temporary Australian residents have to seek approval from the Foreign Investment Review Board to invest in Australian property. In 2011-12 some 10,118 real estate approvals were granted worth $59.1 billion in total. This was up 42% on the previous financial year.
But to understand what really is going on, one needs to dig a little deeper. First off, only around a third, or $20 billion, of real estate investment in 2011-12 relates to residential property. And around a fifth of that figure – $4.1 billion – is made up of temporary residents in Australia buying property. These people are required to sell up when they leave (unless they subsequently obtain Australian citizenship or permanent residency).
The balance of the residential real estate investment – around $15.5 billion in 2011-12 – essentially relates to off-the plan developments, either by individuals or by development companies marketing to overseas buyers.
The $15.5 billion is a big sum of money, and while annual figures jump around a fair bit, the trend is up, growing at around 7.5% a year since 2008-09. This number is especially big if you are a developer struggling to market your property to locals, a not uncommon issue today.
To my mind, there is a significant amount of two-tier marketing going on. This is the unsavoury practice of promoting a product (in this case property) to foreigners and/or out-of-towners in the wilful knowledge that they don’t know what they are getting because they are unfamiliar with local underlying prices, trends or conditions. It’s by no means a new concept in real estate. There are countless Victorians and New South Welshmen and women who have been sold lemons in the Gold Coast property market over the years. Due to adverse publicity, it’s become increasingly difficult to fool Australian interstaters, so developer attention has turned to those living overseas.
Putting aside this ethically questionable behaviour, I’ll return to the central question: can individual investors profit from this scenario? Well, one strategy might be to ‘follow the money’; to also buy off-the-plan property and see its value grow in line with Asian demand.
Unfortunately, this strategy doesn’t work. Why? While ostensible demand maybe growing, it’s being more than matched by the supply of off-the-plan properties. Quite simply, there is no scarcity value for high-rise towers or fringe suburb McMansions.
Incidentally, notwithstanding the number of zeros in $15.1 billion, it’s a drop in the ocean in terms of the annual turnover of the Australian property market. In the year to November 2012, the ABS recorded $500 billion in mortgage financing for property purchases (excludes refinancing). So at best, the overseas market represents a low single digit percentage of the overall residential market.
Will that change in the future? I doubt it. Rightly or wrongly, there is almost political unanimity for keeping a tight rein around what overseas citizens and temporary residents can purchase. Indeed, the greater likelihood is a tightening of the rules, which could have detrimental impact on the off-the-plan property market.
We may be in the Asian century, but property remains predominantly a domestic affair.
Monique Sasson Wakelin is a director of W<a href="https://www.wakelin.com.au" target="_blank">akelin Property Advisory</a>, an independent firm specialising in acquiring residential property for investors. She can be followed on <a href="https://www.twitter.com/@WakelinProperty" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
For more on the allure of Australian property to Asian buyers, <a target="_blank" href="http://propertyobserver.com.au/ebooks/free-ebook-australias-allure-for-asian-residential-property-investment">download our free eBook. </a> The eBook is also available for<a target="_blank" href="http://propertyobserver.com.au/ebooks/australias-allure-for-asian-residential-property-investment-free-ebook"> free download in Chinese.</a>
 
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Property investors unlikely to profit from increase in Asian buyers: Monique Sasson Wakelin

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Australia’s economy should be the envy of the western world.
Where many western nations are plunging in and out of recession, our economic growth is only slightly below trend and unemployment is relatively low.
And with inflation seemingly tamed the Reserve Bank is comfortable with a cash rate at a generational low of just 2.75%.
But these beautiful numbers belie a tension and skittishness in economic commentary and in the mood of consumers and the electorate. Indeed, the conventional wisdom is that another rate cut is on the cards in coming months.
That worries me. I’m concerned about the possible mixed messages that Australia is sending internationally, particularly to potential investors and wealth creators. We’re increasingly signalling – in my view – an economy in trouble and an Australian can’t-do attitude, despite evidence to the contrary.
Matters are exacerbated by the troubles besieging the federal government. Its inability to predict, let alone stem, the voluminous growth in government debt over the last 12 months portrays it as hapless – a caricature the opposition is of course happy to hammer home again and again.
More broadly, the Gillard Government’s failure to sell its – and by extension, the nation’s –  economic credentials at home or abroad diminishes us at a time when we should be using our good fortune to further market the Australian economic brand.
I’m not particularly encouraged by the Opposition either, who, despite the polls predicting a comfortable win, appears less than ready for government. They’re heavy on slogans and light on policies.
I’ll need to see a lot more substance from them over the coming months – despite assurance and announcements relating to the carbon tax, pensions and income tax – to be reassured that they’re more than an opposition that’s big on rhetoric but small on anything else.
And that brings me to the heart-sinking matter of the federal election on 14 September. I know no one who is excited by casting their vote on that day. We have been literally worn out by the travails of this minority government – its innate uncertainty, policy log-rolling and perpetual eleventh hour negotiations – coupled with the Labor Party’s internecine infighting over the last 3 years and the media’s almost minute-by-minute obsession with dissecting it almost to the exclusion of any substance or policy discussion.
 
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We have reached a stage where, collectively, Australians are gritting their teeth in the face of the coming months of tedium.
Others may argue that politics is always unattractive but in 2013 it’s much much worse than the usual fare.  The politicians’ cynicism has infected the electorate. That’s bad for democracy and its bad for our sense of community. Perhaps things will change on the 15 September. I’m not sure.
Nevertheless, I wonder if too many policy makers are too willing to accommodate and assuage our irritable, gloomy attitude at the moment. Are they mistaking a temporary grumpiness and lassitude for a deeper malaise and, consequently, are we being over-medicated with lower interest rates and ill-conceived government spending?
Lower interest rates will of course be good news for the property market, and this month’s 25 basis cut will – in my opinion – almost inevitably see property prices put on a quick spurt of 5% capital growth (on average) and see values of many properties return to and even exceed their 2010 highs.
But changing interest rates can be like pulling a brick with an elastic band. If rates continue to be cut, who’ll know when we’ve reached a brick-flying moment of over-exuberance, resulting in excessive property price growth and jacked-up interest rates? I don’t anticipate the market to move into anything like bubble territory as a result of recent cuts, but we don’t need to risk engineering increased volatility.
I would be just as happy for a slower, more measured lift in prices over the next couple of years off the back of genuine improvements in economic output, and a return to judicious and strategic government initiatives at both the state and federal level.
Monique Sasson Wakelin is a director of <a target="_blank" href="https://wakelin.com.au/">Wakelin Property Advisory</a>, an independent firm specialising in acquiring residential property for investors.
 
 
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Property values could soon exceed 2010 highs as uninspiring election looms: Monique Sasson Wakelin

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Welcome to the first Back of the hand column. Each month I’ll give you the low down on one of the Melbourne suburbs where I hunt for investment grade property.  For my opening gambit, I’ve super-sized the offering – I’ll be looking at <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Brunswick</a>, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Brunswick East</a> and <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Brunswick West</a>!
The three zones of Brunswick are like siblings in neat formation, standing two-and-half kilometres tall from Brunswick Road to Moreland Road. Brunswick proper is the big brother in the middle; it’s almost twice as big as its flankers.
It has to be said, if you’re a home-buyer looking for an inner city lifestyle and are more attracted to the funkier north than the establishment east of Melbourne, then you’ll probably be pretty happy to live in Brunswick, Brunswick East or Brunswick West.
Transport
Where you choose to live or invest may come down to commuting needs.  If you or your tenants work or study in the west or north-west of Melbourne then Brunswick West is clearly more convenient than the other two suburbs.
Brunswick is the only suburb of the three with a train line – the somewhat infrequent Upfield line – and it also has a tram route down Sydney Road. It’s therefore the ideal suburb for those needing fast access into the CBD.  Brunswick East also has reasonable transport links to the CBD (three tram routes) and is of course best placed for those needing to reach the eastern suburbs.
Landscape
Like much of the inner north, the three Brunswick suburbs have a diversity of residential architectural styles and share the landscape with pockets of light industrial use. The residential stock ranges from Victorian and Edwardian weatherboards and brick houses, to Californian bungalows of the 1930s, through to 1950s clinker brick houses, low rise apartments and commission housing right through to modern townhouses.  Adding further flavour to the mix is the increasing number of former industrial-era warehouse and commercial buildings – Brunswick had a sizeable brick industry in the early 20th century - that are being reassigned for residential use.
For those used to the consistency of Melbourne’s inner eastern suburbs, this lack of uniformity can be a little jarring, but it works in this more eclectic part of Melbourne. Indeed, it is embraced by the locals, many of whom see the architecture as an antidote to the conformity and conservatism of Melbourne’s inner east. There is a palpably eclectic, grungy tone to the area but it certainly isn’t an enclave of wide radicalism; for every street artist and hipster there are plenty of white collar professionals and young middle-class families, each of whom appear to be at ease with the other.
The one major difference between the three suburbs is the greater incidence of larger blocks with three- and four-bedroom houses in West Brunswick.
Lifestyle
Brunswick is the ultimate ethnic melting pot with representatives of every wave of migrant intake from the last 60 years settled in the locality, each adding to the character and charm of the region. Of these, the Greek and Italian communities are most prominent, but increasingly Brunswick is a layering of European and Asian cultures in a contemporary Australian setting. As is usually the case, the public expressions of these cultures is most apparent in the meeting and eating places on the main thoroughfares. In the Brunswicks the most interesting streets are the north-south arteries: Sydney Road, Lygon Street and Nicholson Street.  It is essentially the location of these bustling strips that probably make Brunswick and East Brunswick more dynamic propositions than West Brunswick for those seeking a lively inner suburban lifestyle.
Investment potential
You could conceivably have a parlour game about which of the Brunswicks you would invest in.
Taken as a whole, the unseen hand of the market rates East Brunswick as the most valuable, with a median value of $669,000 according to Australian Property Monitors.  But Brunswick and West Brunswick aren’t far behind at $625,000 and $603,000 respectively.  Brunswick East’s higher rating is likely due to the suburb’s proximity to the uber-desirable Carlton and Fitzroy locations.
The Brunswicks are a classic illustration of the maxim that when you’re investing, you are buying the locality and its general amenity as much as the individual property itself. Nevertheless, not every street and property meets the grade. And in the Brunswicks, it is only a small fraction of the area’s properties and precincts that I would consider blue chip. These gems are on the quiet streets with relatively consistent architecture that are close to public transport and the shopping strips.
Over the years, we have found that Brunswick proper has been the happiest hunting ground for property investment.  That in part is a function of its larger size – there is simply more choice – but also because of the greater public transport options and overall higher levels of amenity.  Brunswick East is a somewhat distant second followed by Brunswick West.  With its larger blocks, the latter tends to lend itself more to homebuyers rather than investors – especially those upgrading – who are looking for several bedrooms and a more affordable price than Brunswick proper.
Undoubtedly, the appeal of the Brunswicks will continue to grow as its housing stock and streets are further gentrified. They’re definitely three to watch!

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Monique Sasson Wakelin is a director of <a target="_blank" href="https://wakelin.com.au/">Wakelin Property Advisory</a>, an independent firm specialising in acquiring residential property for investors. 
You can contact Monique on <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/WakelinProperty">Twitter</a>.
 
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Get to know the Brunswicks like the back of your hand with Monique Sasson Wakelin

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Melbourne’s suburban beaches are not among the city’s headline acts. Compared with Sydney’s grand, glamorous ocean beaches, such as Bondi or Coogee, the slivers of sand that hug the northern edge of becalmed Port Phillip Bay are genteel affairs.
That’s okay, we Melbournians are cool with that. However, if you want to select a salty suburb to promenade upon within a stone’s throw of the CBD, there is always Elwood, St Kilda, Albert Park or South Melbourne.
<img alt="port-melbourne-oct-28-one" height="331" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/10/28/port-melbourne-oct-28-one.jpg">
Source: Google Maps
Closer still is Port Melbourne. Its palm tree-lined beach is just three kilometres from Southern Cross Station. Once you’ve had your fill of the beach there’s a great selection of chilled-out bars and restaurants along Beach Street to pull up a pew and watch the flotilla of ships on the bay including, twice a day, the Spirit of Tasmania ferry to-ing and fro-ing from the Apple Isle, the periodic cruise liner, as well as the several container ships sitting on the horizon or seemingly rounding on the West Gate Bridge. And then there’s that spectacular, romantic sunset.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/10/25/spirit-oct-25-one.jpg" width="470" height="320" alt="spirit-oct-25-one">
Port Melbourne is, of course, still a working port. Indeed, three-quarters of the suburb’s 10 square kilometres is devoted to the business of shipping or import-export related industries. Its small residential precinct is cornered in the south-east of the suburb, bordered by Pickles Street in the east, Boundary Street to the north, Williamstown Road to the north-west and the bay to the south.
Despite the scale of the commercial and industrial maritime aspects of Port Melbourne, they don’t impinge markedly on the quality of residential life in Port Melbourne. There are some truck movements on Beach Street, Bay Street and Williamstown Road, but most of it is efficiently siphoned away by the West Gate Freeway. Indeed, the suburb is far less disrupted by truck traffic than the likes of Yarraville and Newport on the opposing bank of the Yarra and, being an end-of-the-line kind of place, it isn’t that jammed up with cars either.
{yoogallery src=[images/stories/2013/10/25/port1]}
Photos courtesy of <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/7630441@N02/" target="_blank">Gappa/Flickr</a>.
Beyond its sea frontage, one of the main attractions of Port Melbourne is the ease of commuting to the CBD. The light railway whips commuters from the beach to Southern Cross Station in ten minutes, whilst many residents choose to walk or cycle to work.
Bay Street is a fully-featured, bustling shopping strip and, for a more old-fashioned way of filling the pantry, the lovely South Melbourne market is a five minute drive north.
Unusually for an inner suburb, Port Melbourne has some very distinctive residential localities. Garden City, a 1920s Beaux Arts estate, occupies a long narrow strip of land south of Williamstown Road between Todd Road and Graham Street. Beacon Cove, a more recent incarnation of a Beaux Arts estate, sits to the south east of Garden City. Finally, there is a cluster of high rise apartments along The Boulevard and Beach Street.
{yoogallery src=[images/stories/2013/10/25/port3]}
Photos courtesy of <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/52846207@N04/" target="_blank">Matt/Flickr</a>.
Unsurprisingly, all this property is in great demand. Larger houses on good-size blocks in Garden City can command $1.5 million plus. The penthouses in some of the most well-positioned high rise apartments overlooking the bay do even better. And Beacon Cove, a more architecturally balanced affair than many other contemporary estates, is very popular. So it is no surprise that Port Melbourne is a highly sought after spot for home owners.
However, Port Melbourne doesn’t have many great examples of a landscape more traditionally associated with classic investment principles – the consistent row of classic Victorian and Edwardian cottages on a quiet street. There are a pockets of these in the northeast corner, above Graham Street. But you’ll pass through a number of streets dominated by townhouse and warehouse conversions to get to them.
Consequently, despite its great appeal for homeowners, many Inner Bayside investors choose to head for Albert Park, Middle Park or St Kilda – places that deliver a similar amenity but with a more plentiful selection of classic investment architecture.
 
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Monique Sasson Wakelin is a director of <a rel="nofollow" href="https://wakelin.com.au/" target="_blank">Wakelin Property Advisory</a>, an independent firm specialising in acquiring residential property for investors.
You can contact Monique on <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/WakelinProperty" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
 
 
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Get to know Port Melbourne like the back of your hand, with Monique Sasson Wakelin

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North Melbourne remains an enigma to many investors – even experienced ones – because it is such a quilt work of current and former industrial land. But take time to understand its heritage and topology, and there is great opportunity there.
North Melbourne is one of the city’s oldest areas, built in the 1840s with the establishment of cattle yards. Humans didn’t move in on mass until the 1850s when the first subdivisions were carved around Arden Street. The population grew rapidly off the back of the gold rush, filling up both well-heeled and poorer precincts. By 1911 the population had reached 19,000 (compare that to the population of 12,000 today).
Slum-like conditions were common in several areas, and it was an issue that was progressively addressed by policy-makers over the 20th century through various slum-reclamation policies, including the development of a number of Housing Commission buildings.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/11/28/north-melbourne-nov-28-two.jpg" width="470" height="250" alt="north-melbourne-nov-28-two">
Source: Google
North Melbourne is effectively a triangle – a 2.5 square kilometre triangle bordered by City Link on its western side and Victoria Street on the southern side. Flemington Road forms the hypotenuse.
<img src="/images/stories/2013/11/28/north-melbourne-nov-28-three.jpg" width="470" height="403" alt="north-melbourne-nov-28-three">
Source: Google
Whilst a drive-through visitor might discount North Melbourne as an industrial zone, there are some lovely residential streets. And if you can pick the pearls, it’s a fabulous location.  It’s blessed with wide boulevards and only a two-and-half kilometre drive to Melbourne’s GPO.
Much of the suburb is well elevated and has great views to the south, back to the city. It is very commutable, with great train, tram and cycle links. Its proximity to the CBD makes it walking distance for many.
Residents are spoilt for retail, restaurant and entertainment choices. They buy their groceries from the Queen Victoria Market or the increasingly cool Errol Street shopping strip. It’s replete with quirky boutiques, cafes, and old-fashioned pubs, many of which have become fine restaurants. There is an atmosphere that manages to combine groovy, villagey and eclectic!
<img alt="errol-st-nov-28-rexness_flickr" height="274" width="470" src="/images/stories/2013/11/28/errol-st-nov-28-rexness_flickr.jpg">
Errol Street, North Melbourne. Source: rexness/flickr.
The challenge for investors is finding the investment pearls, because the really good properties are tightly held. It’s also because the process of gentrification in North Melbourne remains a work-in-progress.
<img alt="auction-rooms-nov-28-alpha-flickr" height="180" width="307" src="/images/stories/2013/11/28/auction-rooms-nov-28-alpha-flickr.jpg"><img style="font-size: 0.8em;" alt="north_melbourne_archetecture_nov_28" height="180" width="135" src="/images/stories/2013/11/28/north_melbourne_archetecture_nov_28.jpg">
Auction Rooms café (left) and an example of terrace housing, North Melbourne. Source: flickr.
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To some extent, investing in North Melbourne is a process of elimination. Avoid the borders because of the busy main roads. Keep clear of the western side of North Melbourne due to the more intensive light industrial uses and proximity to the rail yards. Properties on streets that include high rise commission dlats also tend not to perform well.
What I do like is around the north east section of North Melbourne. It has retained a number of very consistent streetscapes of Victorian and Edwardian houses. But note that there is a limited stock of quality one and two bedroom apartments.
I consider North Melbourne undervalued. I don’t mean cheap, because you’ll need $800,000-plus to purchase an investment-grade heritage cottage there.  But I anticipate further uplift in values as the suburb’s continuing evolution from industrial landscape to gentrified inner suburban snug becomes more apparent to the wider market.
 
<hr>
 Monique Sasson Wakelin is the founder of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wakelin.com.au">Wakelin Property Advisory</a>, an independent firm specialising in acquiring residential property for investors.
You can contact Monique on <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/@WakelinProperty">Twitter</a>.
 
 
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Get to know North Melbourne like the back of your hand

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A slight weakening in auction clearance rates around the country in the last weeks of the 2013 market on the back of some very high stock levels, led some commentators to suggest that the market had peaked with a weaker 2014 market on the cards.
In reality, the pull back in auction clearance rates and market activity reflected a decision by many investors – a significant factor in the strength of the current market – to put buying initiatives on hold until the New Year.  Whilst investors are willing, they aren’t usually as anxious to conclude a purchase before Christmas as home buyers are, especially first home buyers, who often just want to get a deal done. Many investors have calculated – correctly in my view – that there will be plenty of stock on the market come February 2014, so there is no need to panic-buy.
Moreover, property cycles are rarely short.  It takes time for the signal of improved conditions to be strong enough for the bulk of potential participants to receive it, digest it, and then act upon it. While much of the activity is 2013 was among early movers, 2014 will be a market of the mainstream.
With this broad underpinning, I anticipate that there will be solid capital growth across all our capital cities in 2014, rather than the skew in favour of Sydney that we saw in 2013. Sydney’s accelerated growth in 2013 is another example of that first mover phenomenon – Sydney led the national growth cycle, taking off around the last quarter of 2012. Due to its dynamism and affluence, Sydney often takes off first and moves harder when there is an upturn in the market cycle. But eventually, other capital cities react as well.
The weaker Australian dollar is likely to support increased demand by foreign nationals in the off the plan (OTP) and highrise apartment sectors, the only segments of the market where Australia’s foreign investment rules allow them to buy.
However, I’m not predicting a boom for this sector. Rather, the lower dollar is likely to ramp up overseas demand and this will temporarily soak up the currently over-supplied pipeline.  It is inevitable that developers will eventually react to this demand and overbuild again before long.  Indeed, the greatest beneficiaries of the lower Australian dollar may be the established sector, as some domestic buyers squeezed out of the OTP market by overseas buyers turn to established localities and property styles. With Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane hosting the largest OTP sectors, I expect them to benefit most from this trend.
My outlook for our major capital cities follows. Note that these forecasts are predicated on the assumption that the Reserve Bank holds interest rates steady for the first half of 2014 and raises them just once in the second half of the year. Moreover I would be concerned about market stability if the RBA drops interest rates any further as this could engender an unwelcome over-exuberance in price growth and activity.
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City
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2014 likely % change
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Comment from Monique Sasson, Founder, Wakelin Property Advisory
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Sydney
</td>
<td width="5%" valign="top">
5-7%
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Sydney was the first mover in this growth cycle, delivering 15% capital growth in 2013. As is often the case, the second year of Sydney’s growth cycle is likely to be more measured. Nevertheless, demand remains sufficiently strong and supply sufficiently restricted to support mid-to-high single digit growth in 2014 across Sydney’s inner and middle ring areas in particular, with more modest inflation-tracking growth further out.
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Melbourne
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6-8%
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Melbourne’s 8-10% growth in 2013 surprised many commentators who believed the city’s property was already ‘fully priced’ after its sustained growth in the years up to mid-2010. Much of this analysis relies on an assumption that Melbourne’s property prices should always trade at a significant discount to Sydney’s, to reflect the southern capital’s ‘supporting’ role status.  However, I believe it is now dawning on market participants that this view of Melbourne as second string to Sydney is antiquated in light of Melbourne’s projected population growth and its strong cultural, infrastructure and lifestyle offerings. This structural change may see Melbourne outperform Sydney over coming years until the difference in median prices is closed or at least narrowed significantly. Focusing on 2014, I see Melbourne property prices growing more strongly than Sydney’s, predominantly because Sydney prices grew so fast in 2013. The most robust growth will continue to be observed in inner and middle ring locations with outer areas of the west and east merely tracking inflation-reflected growth.
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Brisbane
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6-8%
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<td width="87%" valign="top">
Although Brisbane recorded around 5% growth in 2013, overall values have been held back in recent times, so 2014 may well be the year Brisbane property prices bounce back. Brisbane’s underperformance relative to Melbourne and Sydney’s in recent years was in part due to the impact on confidence of the floods and concerns about the weakening mining boom and strong Australian dollar on the economy. The weakening Australian dollar should help the tourism and mining industries, each major employers in the Sunshine State.
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Perth
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6-8%
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Perth was the strongest capital city for capital growth in 2013 after Sydney, hitting around 10%. It surprised many, including myself, by shrugging off concerns that the softening of the mining boom would temper growth. The growth pattern though tends to be erratic. Perth’s house price movement is always hard to predict as the main driver of prices – the state of the local economy – is far more volatile in WA than in New South Wales and Victoria due to the large weighting of one industry –  mining, which itself is an unusually volatile sector of the economy. On balance, with a lower Australian dollar boosting the local value of mining earnings, I expect Perth to perform reasonably well in 2014.
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Adelaide
</td>
<td width="5%" valign="top">
4-6%
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<td width="87%" valign="top">
Adelaide prices grew a modest 3% in 2013, but I expect a better result in 2014. However, I think capital growth will be constrained by some nervousness about the health of the South Australian economy, where confidence may be hit by the impending closure of Holden’s Adelaide plant. Adelaide’s inner suburbs and those closest to urban beaches are likely to experience the highest demand and growth performance.
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Canberra
</td>
<td width="5%" valign="top">
6-8%
</td>
<td width="87%" valign="top">
Overshadowing the Canberra market for most of 2013 was a concern that an incoming Coalition federal government would slash the public sector workforce, which if it occurred, would likely impact the ACT disproportionately. It now appears that the new government is likely to move less aggressively than previously thought.  I therefore believe the Canberra market will remain robust in 2014 but will be very employment sensitive.
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Darwin
</td>
<td width="5%" valign="top">
5-7%
</td>
<td width="87%" valign="top">
Darwin is another capital city where prediction is particularly fraught.  With an economy whose prospects are heavily influenced by the fortunes of the resource exploration industry, it has the characteristics of a frontier town, where asset values can fluctuate wildly. Its small often transient population can impact on demand so Darwin’s 2014 performance will swing on the mining and gas sectors’ results.
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Hobart
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<td width="5%" valign="top">
3-5%
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<td width="87%" valign="top">
With the lowest incomes of any capital city, Hobart is the country’s smallest and also least diverse capital city economy. This is reflected in its property prices – the median sits at just $350,000.  It is tempting to think that bargain-hunters will eventually drive a strong recovery in prices and this has been frequently predicted over the years, but the Apple Isle’s weak population growth projections and lack of signs pointing to an economic renaissance suggest otherwise. Those wishing to invest should restrict themselves to suburbs within two to four kilometres of the Hobart CBD.
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Note: 2013 percentage capital growth outcomes based on RP Data figures.
Monique Sasson is the founder of <a href="https://www.wakelin.com.au" target="_blank">Wakelin Property Advisory</a>, an independent firm specialising in acquiring residential property for investors.
You can contact Monique on <a href="https://twitter.com/@WakelinProperty" target="_blank">Twitter</a>.
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Monique Sasson

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