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Guest observeration
Recently I read two very different articles about our 'property markets'.
The first was an in depth piece by arguably Australia's most accurate property analyst, <a href="michael-matusik" target="_blank">Michael Matusik</a>. The <a href="/expert-insights/finance/35208-unprecedented-low-interest-rates-won-t-last-forever" target="_blank">second article</a> was attributed to the chairman of Century 21 Real Estate, Charles Tarbey. Both articles rammed home why the average Australian finds it difficult to know (let alone understand) what's really happening in 'the property market'.
Matusik suggested that "caution and common-sense" are the order of the day for owner occupiers and investors alike (along with investing for rental income of course).
Tarbey on the other hand declared that there was no bubble in Australian real estate, and that "we're in a very steady adjustment growth mode driven by the shift to a market where buyers and sellers negotiate a fair price". Caution and common sense?
Neither pundit addressed this point though: your bank has a dirty little secret (weapon) that they can't wait to use on you.
Our current low interest rates and housing shortage issues have lured thousands of people each week into paying 'whatever it takes' to get into a property, especially in Sydney and Melbourne. There's so much evidence of this that it's just plain scary.
Whether you like it or not, Sydney is the undisputed engine of Australia. Melbourne comes in second and not-so-sleepy Brisbane is third in line.
So let's take a close look at Sydney, shall we? With 4.35 million residents, the largest workforce, strongest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and highest home prices in the nation. House prices (in Sydney and every other overheated market) are poised for a serious downward adjustment, not if, but when interest rates go back up from their current 50 year historical lows.
Most people flocking in to buy a home today don't understand that an interest rate of 6.70% isn't just a "bit more"; it's a whopping 37% extra interest each month.
How will life change for an average Sydney couple with a $400,000 mortgage currently and 4.89% interest rate? Their current monthly repayment is $2121 with an interest component of $1630; and they're paying the principal down by $491 a month. It will take them 30 years to own that home at that rate.
But what happens when their interest rate goes back to 6.70% - still well below the long term average?
Have a look at the 'smoke &amp; mirrors' their bank uses to hide its dirty little secret. Although the monthly repayment for our Sydney couple jumps by $460 to $2581, the interest component jumps by almost $150 more, from $1630 to $2233.
The interest component on their loan is now $112 a month more than their previous principal and interest repayment.
Their interest is now $603 higher, however their monthly repayment only increased by $460. Even though their monthly repayment jumped by almost 22% - the interest component jumped by 37%.
Hello, did you see that: they've gone from paying almost $500 a month off, to now only reducing the debt by just $348 each month.
Kiss that 30 year repayment period goodbye!
Score 1:0 to their bank, who win big time, with each rate rise working in their favour.
 This article continues on the next page. Please click below to continue.
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So I simply cannot agree with Tarbey's view. When people are competing in record numbers, for the few properties available, and prepared to pay above the odds to secure a place to call home, then common sense has gone out the window.
I know we're in a bubble right now, when real estate agents tell me that the house I bought for $680,000 just over five years ago would probably now fetch $1.1m.
I know we're in a bubble right now, when real estate agents tell me that they'll now accept "offers over $280,000" for the two bedroom units I was buying for investor clients 21 months ago for $200,000 - and their rents have either remained static or dropped $10 a week in the process.
I know we're in a bubble right now, because my house hasn't increased in value by over $500,000 or 73%. I know we're in a bubble right now, because those two bedroom units haven't increased in value by $80,000 or 40%.
I also know we're heading for a severe correction in those markets because:
<ul>
<li>This insanity is driven by an abundance of cheap money</li>
<li>The supply component is out of synch to match the demand caused by the abundance of cheap money</li>
<li>Money is the cheapest it's been in over 50 years because our economy is in trouble</li>
<li>Borrowing to the hilt because you can afford to pay whatever it takes for 'that' property based on today's interest rates is maybe the new definition of insanity</li>
</ul>
Michael Matusik, I think you're closer to the truth than even you might know.
What should you do right now? A couple of things, actually:
<ul>
<li>Get rid of all that credit card debt, personal loans, and any other high interest rate facilities</li>
<li>If you can't get rid of that debt, if you've got enough equity in your home consider rolling those debts into your home loan. Better still, roll them into a separate facility and pay it off over say three to five years</li>
<li>Seriously consider switching your home and/or investment property loan to either a three or five year Fixed Rate loan - sooner rather than later</li>
<li>Pay more than the minimum repayment on your home and/or investment property loans; in fact use these ridiculously low interest rates to pay as much extra as you can afford</li>
<li>Right now, the smartest thing you can do - for you - is to reduce debt fast. The lowest interest rates in five decades is your best chance to do this, probably in five decades.</li>
</ul>
 
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klee-LzAEhB2j7n

Your bank has a dirty little secret

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Six years ago McCrindle Research (one of Australia's leading research houses) predicted that by 2020 the Australian population would reach 24 million. At the time - 2008 - our population was 21.4 million.
Based on the Australian Bureau of growth statistics (2013), we're growing by:
<ul>
<li>one birth every one minute and 42 seconds,</li>
<li>one death every three minutes and 34 seconds,</li>
<li>a net gain of one international migration every two minutes and 14 seconds, leading to</li>
<li>an overall total population increase of one person every one minute and 20 seconds.</li>
</ul>
As I write this article in August 2014 Australia's population sits at 23.5 million (<a href="https://abs.gov/" target="_blank">abs.gov</a>). If my calculations are correct, we're growing by 395,188 people every year. By New Years Eve in 2020, we'll add another 2.371 million people to our population. Last time I checked ... 23.5 million plus 2.3 million equals 25.8 million.
We'll be 10% bigger at almost 26 million people. By 2020 we won't just reach 24 million - we'll have enough new blood to add another Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin, Canberra, Townsville and Cairns into the mix!
It's just "numbers" you say, but take note - these "numbers" will have a massive effect on the Australian economy and the thousands of property markets across Australia.
As the federal government has recently signalled - adding salt to the wound will be our ageing population; lots of significantly older adults.
Around 200,000 people reached 65 years of age in 2011. Between January 2012 and December 2020 another 5.4 million will join them. That little fact may not mean much today - but with Baby Boomers exiting the workforce in large numbers, we're staring down the barrel of a lot more people and a lot less tax payers.
A bit more research (another McCrindle report) revealed that in 2012 the median age was 38. They also predict that in 2050 our median age will be 43. We're growing older and living longer.
The double-edged sword? We're also losing our kids to the 'global village' - what we read about at university back in the 60s and 70s, they now live in. Our younger generations grow up, study, possibly received government funding or HECS support to gain their qualifications and leave our shores in increasing numbers to work in others countries.
In 2012, a reported 257,258 Australians left the 'lucky country' permanently - a quarter of a million Aussies said goodbye!
When I sat my HSC 42 years ago we didn't have pocket calculators - they weren't available in Australia. "How the times they are a changing"
I know at least some of these kids found that international job on their mobile device, accepted the offer, negotiated their remuneration package and booked their flights the same way. Leaving without a second thought.
The undeniable challenge we must now address is that we have a mass exit at the top of the age scale, a significant one in the lower age bracket - and the people in the middle are going to suffer. Your retirement age has already been increased to 70 years of age.
What's next then?
This is what's next, and it's a real eye opener. In 2013, only four percent of Aussies over the age of 65 years were self-funded retirees.
What the? 96% of people over the age of 65 were either reliant on a tax-payer funded pension, still working, or deceased. And as I said earlier, with the Boomers exiting the workforce in large numbers, we're staring down the barrel of a lot less tax payers to fund those pensions.
If people in the middle age bracket (38-55 years of age) don't take control of their financial futures right now, they really won't have much to look forward to in retirement.
If you're in that middle group and you're 'stuck'; unsure of how to shape your financial future so you can see the retirement you want and deserve, then you need to invest in your financial education now.
By developing your financial education, you'll create the ability to identify opportunities to help maximise your income and asset potential, and in return create a passive income in retirement.
Kevin Lee is the property investment expert and buyer's agent at <a href="https://www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Smart Property Adviser</a>.
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The demographic storm about to hit Australia

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GUEST OBSERVATION
A<a href="/expert-insights/investing/34746-australia-s-top-25-most-expensive-suburbs-rp-data" target="_blank"> recent RP Data report</a> stated the number of suburbs across Australia with a median price of at least $1 million has increased by more than 33% in 12 months - and it looked as though they were suggesting this is a good thing.
Make no mistake - this revelation of 417 suburbs should sound warning bells for the 'average Australian'. Our state and federal governments rabbit on about the need for affordable housing - since when did house prices of $1 million fit that bill?
As you might expect, many of the suburbs that made the list were in the major capitals - Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. The combined population of these three cities is approx 11 million, or 46% of Australia's total.
So let's do the math for a 35 year old working Sydney couple with one child. They're buying a home in a Sydney suburb for that median price of $1 million and they don't want to pay lenders mortgage insurance (LMI).
Suppose they met and fell in love eight years ago and started saving for their 'average home' pretty soon after. Our 'model couple' married, had a baby and have been super diligent too - saving $250,000 i n that time. That's an average of $31,000 a year for eight years.
Nice one! Who do you know that can do that? Not many? Mmmm - thought so.
Let's stop here for a minute: what buying a home for $1 million plus is doing is sucking the life out of people who are in the prime of their life, just so they can buy an average home in one of those 417 suburbs.
Out of that $250,000 deposit, they need to allow:
<ul>
<li>A little over $40,800 for stamp duty + associated fees in Sydney</li>
<li>Around $3200 for their legals and conveyancing</li>
<li>And $500 or so for their bank fees</li>
</ul>
By the time they add removal costs and a few other incidentals, they've just burned $50,000. Leaving this lovely couple $200,000 to put towards the purchase: their deposit. This means that they need an $800,000 mortgage. No problem, book that appointment with your friendly bank manager or mortgage adviser.
Oh dear ... do they qualify for an $800,000 loan? A quick calculation suggests that with the current 'super low interest rates' on offer, our couple with one child, two cars and a car loan only need to earn a combined $130,000 a year to be approved for this loan.
For this exercise I'll assume a split of: $85,000 for the breadwinner and $45,000 for the person who most carries household and child responsibilities. These two incomes deliver $64,000 and $38,250 after tax. A quick monthly calculation tells the real story: they have $5,324 &amp; $3,189 net monthly income after tax.
I t's time to celebrate - your loan is approved!
But now it's crunch time people! At just 4.69% (the super low rate currently on offer) the $800,000 loan to purchase that average home will cost our average family $4,145 per month.
That's monthly until they reach 65 years of age. $4,145 a month for the rest of their working lives! Almost 49% of their combined net income goes towards making their minimum loan repayments. And if our friends can't pay it off faster, they will have paid more than $1,000,000 in bank interest during t hat time.
What will happen though when their interest rate increases to just 6.6%? That monthly repayment jumps by a grand to $5,157 - ouch. I think you can work the rest of this math exercise out?
So our average couple bought an average home in one of 417 average suburbs with an above average deposit and above average sized mortgage...
And pretty much gave up their opportunity to become an average family of two adults and two kids.
Listen up people. Unless he's Walter White they can't ever afford to have baby number two.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
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The mysterious world of finance can be honed down to just three questions:
<ol>
<li>Can you pay back the loan?</li>
<li>Will you pay back the loan?</li>
<li>If it goes pear shaped, what can we sell?</li>
</ol>
If you fail to meet any one of the three criteria questions you will not be approved for finance.
Here's what hurts the feelings of so many people: the primary reason a couple wants to purchase one of these million dollar homes is to keep up appearances - I see it all the time.
Shelling out almost half your net income each month for a roof over your head is not the smartest move for most couples. Lose your job, become ill or have an accident that stops you from working and you're in trouble. This kind of financial stress kills even the strongest relationships.
People who need to keep up appearances aren't thinking about their financial future at all. They're all about 'I want it and I want it now'. Dangerous ground indeed - especially when interest rates increase in 2015 and beyond.
Many a credit rating (CRAA File) has been severely damaged over the years by this scenario and the resultant relationship breakdown.
It's articles like that RP Data Report that feed ego driven decisions and encourage people to believe that it's a 'fantastic' idea to purchase these types of properties.
Because we all know the mantra: "Property values always double every seven to 10 years."
Yeah right! Pigs might fly too.
It kills me to know that so many people fall into the trap of buying the wrong type of property, when the investors I'm working with are buying their first, second and third investments just weeks after getting started.
It's time for a reality check.
Here's a sample of the ‘no go’ suburbs from the RP Data list:
 <img src="/images/2014/08/21/rp-data-aug-21-two.png">
Kevin Lee is the property investment expert and buyer's agent at <a href="https://www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Smart Property Adviser</a>.
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Are million dollar suburbs destroying the 'average' Australian family?

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We've all read those adverts in the industry magazines and publications. You know ... the ones touting super high rental yields on average houses or townhouses in a far flung mining town?  
So it was a kick in the teeth for those developers and marketers this week when CBA - Australia's biggest housing lender - announced that when assessing loan applications for investment properties located in mining towns, from next Monday (irrespective of what actual rent the property receives or is estimated to receive), they will now cap rental yields at 8% for their servicing calculations.  
I wasn't surprised in the least when I saw CBA's recent credit policy change. Here's why: in a blog article I published a few weeks ago titled <a href="https://spionline.com.au/blog/latest-blogs/12089-investor-fyi-how-the-banks-works" target="_blank">"Investors FYI: How banks work"</a>, I openly exposed how banks work, detailed how they assess their lending and interest rate on offer using a simple explanation: 'rate for risk' and emphasised how the banks calculate all of their lending based on risk.  
This latest change to credit policy is heavily based on the need to minimise the risk of CBA customers defaulting on their loans: "With high rental yields in some areas of the country, particularly in mining towns, and a view that these yields are not sustainable, the Bank will be capping rental yields at 8%. By capping the rental yield we are proactively moving to minimise the risk to customers defaulting on their loan while supporting brokers in maintaining their customer portfolio."
What they didn't mention is that many investors have bought investment properties purely on the premise that the advertised rental would last - possibly for decades. CBA has changed both their credit and postcode policies over the past few months to further mitigate any impending risk.  
Investors would be wise to take note.  
In another published article I commented on the risks associated with investing in mining or 'one industry' towns and expressed my professional and researched opinion. I concluded that it was naive for investors to invest in mining town areas. The article was titled <a href="https://spionline.com.au/home/11088-naive-to-fall-for-mining-town-investments" target="_blank">"Naive for investors to buy in mining towns"</a>.  
The risk of investors defaulting on their loans is increasing amongst those investors with investment properties in mining towns and especially in light of increasing interest rates.  
Banks know this &amp; they definitely know 'their game' better than anyone else. You want proof? Check their annual profits. 
Their job is to minimise their risk and maximise their profits. CommBank is taking action now; it won't be long before other lenders follow.  
CBA statement:
"On Monday 25 November 2013, all Home Loan/Investment Home Loans and Lines of Credit reliant on rental income from a residential security for servicing must not exceed the 8% rental yield.
"All applications (including Home Seeker) decisioned after Sunday 24 November 2013, will be subject to the new rental yield cap...
"Customers who earn greater than 8% p.a. rental yield must be advised that the Bank can only use the maximum of 8% p.a. rental yield for servicing."
 
<hr>
Kevin Lee is the property investment expert and buyer's agent at <a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="https://www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au/">Smart Property Adviser</a>.
Kevin specialises in helping investors identify and acquire positive cashflow properties that generate high rental returns, enabling his clients to grow their portfolios.
Kevin's free report "How To Turn Your Negatively Geared Property Into A Positive One In 3 Steps - Without Selling" is available at <a href="https://www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au</a>. 
 
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What does the Commonwealth Bank's changing stance on mining towns mean for investors?

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Investors who aren't good at managing money could find a line of credit (LOC) to be their biggest mistake: helping them to get in way over their heads financially. LOC's are an exercise in compounding interest - and work really, really well; for the bank!


Although the interest rate on an LOC appears competitive compared to a credit card - used incorrectly it often becomes a massive financial problem. 

This is the biggest downside investors should be wary of - LOC's allow you to capitalise the interest until you reach the limit (or 90% of the credit limit). Many people don't think this through; capitalising the interest fools people into a false sense of security, but in fact it means that the interest incurred is simply being added to the amount already drawn down.
For example, if you borrow $250,000 via a LOC and interest for the month is $1500, instead of being required to pay the $1500 into the loan, the balance simply becomes $251,500. Repeated monthly that $1500 interest component grows: maybe only by $10 to $1510 the next month, but by the end of the first year that monthly interest component will be well over $1600.

If you are using your line of credit for personal purchases, you can see how easily this can become dangerous. Ignoring the debt by allowing the interest to capitalise will directly affect your ability to expand your portfolio. 

Tip: you should budget to repay your LOC in full over 10 years. 

Question yourself if that timeframe seems impossible; if you can't pay it off don't be deluded into believing its helping you get where you want to go.

Smaller amounts like $5,000 or less should be paid back within two years; three years is realistic for amounts such as $10,000. 

Never forget that growing your portfolio is your priority and every decision you make must contribute to its growth. Therefore using a line of credit to purchase depreciating assets such as cars is nothing more than a step backward in your journey to financial freedom.

Of course investors often access funds from a LOC to fund renovations or repairs needed to improve their investment property, potentially improving the rental return and value. That's OK - as long as a plan is in place to pay that debt off over a given timeframe.

If you're a home owner wanting to invest, beware of using a LOC attached to your home - you should seek advice from your financial planner and/or accountant. Get it wrong and you'll be sorry!

Don't mix business with pleasure, park your pay as you go income in your owner-occupied property offset account to save interest on your owner-occupied debt. Don't park your income in the LOC.
However if like so many people - you've already mixed business with pleasure - see your adviser as soon as possible  to help get you back on track.

What's all the fuss? Mixing business expenses (investment) with pleasure (personal) means you will lose tax deductibility status on some of the loan. This will ultimately also increase your accountancy costs substantially.

Lines of credit can be useful for consolidating other debts into your mortgage, however they are not for everyone.

Before you consider a line of credit ensure that you have a strict budget plan in place to stay within your financial limits. 

Don't become dependent on your line of credit, it will ultimately do you more harm than good - often slowly and without you noticing it.

<hr>
Kevin Lee is the property investment expert and buyer's agent at <a href="https://www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Smart Property Adviser</a>.
Kevin specialises in helping investors identify and acquire positive cashflow properties that generate high rental returns, enabling his clients to grow their portfolios.
Kevin's free report "How To Turn Your Negatively Geared Property Into A Positive One In 3 Steps - Without Selling" is available at <a href="https://www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au</a>.
 
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Why investors should be wary of lines of credit: Kevin Lee

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Most people confuse cash-flow and gearing believing they're the same thing; they're not.
Cash-flow is the pre-tax income your investment property generates week after week, whilst gearing relates to how your investment property is financially structured after tax.
Few investors are aware that negative gearing is a financial trap. In a nutshell, negative gearing is where you lose money month in month out - because you believe the value of the property will increase sufficiently over the short term, to offset those monthly losses. Some people mistakenly believe that it's smart to invest purely for the tax benefit.
Smart investors however, know that negative cash-flow on a weekly to monthly basis does not facilitate a multi property portfolio.
Negative cash flow is when the expenses for a property exceed the income the property generates.
Some investors don't realise that negative cash-flow can also occur in positively geared properties as well. Longer-than-expected vacancy periods, major repairs, maintenance and other ongoing expenses can sometimes result in negative cash-flow, for a short period of time.
If you're property is positively geared and generating negative cash flow then you've probably run into some larger than normal expenses.
Tip - it's a good idea to keep a cash buffer of three months loan repayments in an offset account - it becomes useful when you have repairs or go through short term financial hardship.
Also don't ignore the fact that your property could be producing a negative cash flow because the market in which your property lives may be experiencing low rental demand. This could signal that it's time to renovate.
Nonetheless, in its purest sense negative cash-flow is highly disabling and will prevent you from going forward and growing your portfolio. A smart property adviser can help you reverse your negative cash-flow situation; often it's simply a case of restructuring your incorrect or impractical finance structure.
However - as is the case with negatively geared property - your income can only service a limited number of negative cash-flow properties .... before you start to feel financial strain.
 
<hr>
 Kevin Lee is the property investment expert and buyer's agent at <a href="https://www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au/" target="_blank">Smart Property Adviser</a>.
Kevin specialises in helping investors identify and acquire positive cashflow properties that generate high rental returns, enabling his clients to grow their portfolios. 
Kevin's free report "How To Turn Your Negatively Geared Property Into A Positive One In 3 Steps - Without Selling" is available at <a href="https://www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au/" target="_blank">www.smartpropertyadviser.com.au</a>.
 
 
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Kevin Lee

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