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GUEST OBSERVATION
The Lazarus of the Australian economy – consumer spending – seems to be starting to recover from the dead zone created by budget related shocks. But how long can it last? The long-term prognosis remains troubling.
A growth recession?
As I am sure all readers will recall from their school days, an oxymoron is a combination of contradictory words. Cruel kindness, for example. The term comes from the Greek for ‘pointedly foolish’, but those in Australian retail property may be feeling that the somewhat oxymoronic-sounding ‘growth recession’ is more serious than that.
Virtually none of the federal government’s cuts and increased costs are likely to pass through the Senate. This is good news for the retail sector; if some of these measures were to make it through annual household income would drop by over $600, causing big spenders on low to medium incomes to think twice about splashing out on the next big purchase.
While a small bounce back in consumer confidence has seen a slight pick-up in retail sales over the last few weeks, this may not be enough to save spenders from having to tighten their belts and save the retail property sector from pain. For over five quarters Australia has registered annual growth at less than 1%, which is disturbingly news considering Australia’s population growth stands at 1.8%.
It’s almost like a recession on an economic growth per capita basis and that is why things are, and are likely to remain, tough for retail.
GDP per capita is moderating…
<img class="alignleft wp-image-6871" src="https://www.btim.com.au/media/GDP1.png" alt="GDP" width="550" height="306">
GDP per capita: % change quarter on quarter chain volume measures. Source: BT Investment Management.
…affecting retail sales in 2014
<img class="alignleft wp-image-6870" src="https://www.btim.com.au/media/Retail-Turnover1.png" alt="Retail Turnover" width="550" height="295">
Retail turnover (SA). Source: BT Investment Management.
There’s a strong warning signal for retail sales
Over the past three years interest rate cuts have prompted some improvement in retail sales. Even with rates kept at historic lows this streak won’t continue. Australians just aren’t interested in borrowing – they’re keeping 24 months ahead of their mortgage repayments and getting better at saving. Consumers have already stopped spending on big ticket items like overseas holidays and cars – new car sales are falling 3% year on year.
Looking to the future, there’s one warning signal investors must not miss – household income growth has dropped from 11% in 2007 to just 3.5% in 2013. This typically correlates with a 2% drag on retail sales, which, closely followed by falling rents, weakens retail property yields.
What it will take for conditions improve?
There’s still a world of opportunity in retail property if you know where to look. Very high population growth in Australia (the highest in the developed world) ensures continued demand for quality shopping centres, but there are some major challenges ahead – rising online sales, the growth recession and lacklustre pay rises will be compounded when interest rates rise once again.
For a sustained increase in retail spending and a retail property boom, we need to see improving income growth, solid house price growth and growing confidence in the economy and the federal government.
Julia Forrest is REIT portfolio manager at <a href="https://www.btim.com.au" target="_blank">BT Investment Management</a>.
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Major challenges remain for retail property

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GUEST OBSERVATION
While the overall retail sector continues to face headwinds, there are three reasons why regional shopping centres may be investors’ pick.
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One-stop shop: the DNA of regional shopping centres is shifting Many regional centres are boosting their appeal to consumers, stores and investors by changing the way they do business. What could once be described as clusters of specialty and discount retail stores are now emerging as thriving town centres, where key healthcare services including doctors, dentists and optometrists are finally seeing the value in setting up shop. It’s not just local service businesses making a lunge for metropolitan centres either, with international chains such as Zara and Aldi rolling out stores across the major regionals. These big brands may tackle Woolworths and Coles for the anchor position in metro centres, increasing their overall traffic. 
</li>
<li>
Mall traffic will boom when residential developments close in The golden investment opportunity lies in regional shopping centres with great residential potential. As the make-up of regional malls continues to shift towards being a one-stop goods and services shop, over time we can expect to see retirement villages, student accommodation and residential developments built on the boundaries (or on top) of these hubs. CBD centres won’t necessarily have these same residential opportunities but there are key exceptions. A good example of this is David Jones on Elizabeth Street in Sydney, where there are plans for a residential tower to be built above the store. 
</li>
<li>
Regional investment no longer a developer’s nightmare Over the past seven years, supply of new regional mall space has lagged below the long-term average of 2.5% of existing stock. It’s not surprising – the GFC caused developers to fear faltering tenant demand for space, the sustainability of yields overall and therefore the value proposition of adding space. The demographics, however, are in their favour. Australia has the highest population growth in the developed world and with the changing make-up of regional malls we’re starting to see the pipeline strengthen for refurbishments and new developments. Where is this investment activity taking place? South East Queensland is fast emerging as a retail investment hot spot. In 2015-2016, the Queensland retail investment splash will hit Mt Gravatt, North Lakes, Chermside and Pacific Fair. While the overall level of retail activity may not be rosy in the short- to medium-term, these improvements are likely to buttress gains in the longer term. Other major redevelopments in the pipeline include Miranda in New South Wales and Booragoon in Western Australia.
</li>
</ol>
Julia Forrest is REIT portfolio manager at <a href="https://www.btim.com.au" target="_blank">BT Investment Management</a>.
 
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The three reasons to invest in regional shopping centres

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Growth can be hard to find in the property market. However, a hidden jewel could be dug up in the industrial sector. 
A secret missed by many investors is the strong historical correlation between house prices and industrial land prices.
While house prices get all the publicity, the industrial sector may be a useful long-term bet.
Here are four reasons why industrial property is Australia’s sweet spot:
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Industrial is the hidden growth market  As cities continue to sprawl, industrial land becomes increasingly useful.Companies like Goodman Group are converting industrial sites into apartment blocks, sometimes quadrupling property value. 
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Warehousing laps up a confidence boost  People are confident during housing booms and strong consumer spending correlates with increased imports, increasing activity in distribution centres. While consumer confidence may still be low now and keeping some buyers out of the market, it will not always be that way. 
</li>
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Industrial property can be a relatively reliable investment  Major developers will not undertake new projects without commitment from tenants. 
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Market dynamics are good  Supply is kept relatively low, rents have been rising and vacancy rates remain muted at the high end.</li>
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Julia Forrest is REIT Portfolio Manager at <a href="https://www.btim.com.au" target="_blank">BT Investment Management</a>.
Listen to BT Investment Management’s <a href="https://www.btim.com.au/adviserbriefing/">webinar</a> to find out more.
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Julia Forrest

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