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EXPERT INSIGHT

New data suggests changes to mortgage lending rules in the near future are unlikely, despite rapidly rising home values. Recent data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) suggests that while the proportion of loan originations that could be ‘higher risk’ showed a slight increase through the December quarter, the regulator saw no evidence of a “material relaxation in lending standards”.

Indicators of lending standards are being watched carefully. Borrowing for the purchase of residential property hit a record $28.8 billion in January 2021, up 34.8% from the decade average. This has also contributed to housing values reaching a new record high.

So far however, the December 2020 quarter has not shown any major deterioration in lending standards, suggesting there is no need for interventions in the form of tighter credit policies. The December 2020 quarter is of particular importance, because it marks a positive turn in Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values coming out of COVID-related restrictions.

The share of interest only loans as a portion of new home loans ticked up to 19.2%

The portion of new mortgages lent on interest only terms hit 19.2% in the December 2020 quarter, up from 18.5% in the previous quarter.

This is not far from the 18.7% average seen over the past two years. It is also well below the record high of 45.6%, which was recorded over the June 2015 quarter. However, it is worth noting there have been improvements to collection of banking statistics, and the historic series is not directly comparable with recent data.

Interest only lending was noted as a potential risk to broader financial stability in the years to 2017. At that time, it was becoming more common for borrowers to originate their loans on interest only repayment terms, or refinance and extend their interest only term period. This was leading to a delay in the paying down of loan principals, at a time when house prices and household debt were rising.

Interest only loan structures have generally been more popular among investors, who are eligible for tax deductions on their interest payments. Considering investors remain around record lows as a share of total lending, the risk to financial stability from interest only lending to this segment of the market remains low.

A key area regulators are likely to be watching is the proportion of interest only lending to owner occupiers. The number of interest only loans to owner occupiers increased by 32.5% over the September quarter and comprised a series high 45.7% of interest only loan originations. A sustained lift in owner occupiers not paying down their loan principal, could place upwards pressure on household debt levels, creating stability risks when interest rates eventually rise.

Debt-to-income ratios of greater than, or equal to 6, hit a two year high

APRA has previously cautioned lenders on exposure to loan-to-income ratios, and debt-to-income ratios, exceeding 6. The portion of new home loans originated on a loan-to-income ratio of greater than, or equal to 6 times reached 7.0% of loans over the December 2020 quarter. This is the highest across the series, which commences from March 2019. Loans originated with a debt-to-income ratio of 6 or more made up 17.2% of mortgages originated in the quarter, which was also a series high. APRA did not express concern around this metric in their report, arguing the share of debt-to-income lending was “within its historical average”.

Increased demand across Sydney and Melbourne property markets, as is being seen at the moment, will test debt-to-income ratios. This is because the house price-to-income ratio across Sydney has averaged around 8.5 since 2013, and has averaged 7.5 across Melbourne since 2015. As housing prices rise at a time when incomes are expected to remain relatively flat, there is the potential for both loan-to-income and debt-to-income ratios to lift further, which is likely to be seen as a riskier outcome by regulators.

The proportion of loans originating on high loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) also rose for owner occupiers and investors

<img alt="" height="388" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/lvr_80.jpg" width="897">

The portion of new home loans originated on a loan-to-value ratio of 80% or more increased to 42.0% across all borrowers in the December 2020 quarter, up from 39.9% in the previous quarter to be the highest proportion on record. The jump was greater the owner occupier space, where 45.7% of loans were originated on an LVR of greater than or equal to 80%, and 14.1% of loans were greater than or equal to 90%.

The regulator argued this increase reflects greater participation of owner occupiers in the market, particularly first home buyers. First home buyers may be accessing housing through loan guarantors, or even the first home loan deposit scheme, which reduced the risk of low-deposit home loans.

The latest data from APRA indicates there is no blow out of risk in mortgage lending, despite the recent surge in property prices across Australia. The publication follows a recent address from RBA governor Phillip Lowe, who reiterated the strategy of maintaining a low cash rate for years to come, which is likely to continue supporting housing demand.

But a deterioration in lending standards can be mitigated, as we’ve witnessed before. This could be achieved by tightening serviceability assessment rates, loan sizes relative to incomes or debt (LTI or DTI ratios) or loan sizes relative to home valuations (LVR). In a recent statement, the Council of Financial Regulators reiterated that while lending standards were generally being maintained at this stage, they have responses up their sleeves if lending conditions do become risky.

While APRA’s December quarter statistics show a trend towards ‘riskier’ styles of lending, the magnitude is not likely to be large enough to trigger a regulatory response; but if this trend continues, or indeed accelerates, it becomes more likely we will see a regulatory intervention aimed at curbing financial stability risks related to the housing sector.
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Housing lending may be cheap, but regulators argue it is not yet risky: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT INSIGHT

The temporary supplement to JobSeeker payments in Australia are set to finish at the end of March 2021. The JobSeeker ‘coronavirus supplement’ was a temporary boost to new and existing recipients of welfare schemes in response to the onset of COVID-19 including JobSeeker, Youth Allowance, Austudy and the Parenting Payment. 

In early 2020, the supplement was set at an additional $275 per week, virtually doubling payments for some recipients. Recently, it was announced that as the coronavirus supplement is wound down from March, a permanent $25 increase will be added to payments. While a permanent increase will make some better off, welfare recipients will be worse off by $250 per week compared with the onset of COVID-19.

But will the removal of the JobSeeker supplement have any impact on the housing market?

First and foremost, it is important to acknowledge that the JobSeeker supplement has already been reduced significantly in recent months, with no dampening impact apparent on the housing market as a whole.

In late March 2020, the original JobSeeker supplement was set at an additional $275 per week. In late September, the supplement was reduced to $125 per week, and it was reduced further to $75 per week through the first quarter of 2021.

However, housing market momentum has increased from September to January, amid the reduction in the supplement. Between the end of September and January, the CoreLogic national home value index rose 3.2%, and rental values increased 2.5%.

Another consideration is that even as the JobSeeker coronavirus supplement was reduced, fewer Australians have been reliant on welfare due to a strong recovery trend in the labour market.

Data from the Australian Government Department of Social Services (DSS) suggests there were 11.7% fewer JobSeeker recipients toward the end January 2020, compared with the end of September. However, there is still a heightened risk to wider-spread housing stress, as the number recipients at January was still 55.9% higher than at the onset of COVID-19 in March 2020.

Changes to JobSeeker would likely have little direct impact on housing market values. With lower income households generally having lower rates of home ownership, it is more likely that households receiving JobSeeker are renters. This would imply an indirect impact on housing prices, where reduced rental return could impact an investor’s willingness to pay for a property.

However, even looking at regions with the highest proportion of JobSeeker recipients in Australia relative to the local population, rental outcomes have been mixed since the significant reduction of the Jobseeker supplement in September. 

Only one region has actually seen a decline in rental values, while other SA2 markets have seen an average increase in market rents of 4.2%, which is actually above the 2.5% increase in rent values nationally over the same period.

Importantly, there is no counter-factual for rental performance in these markets where the coronavirus supplement is unchanged. Under these circumstances, rents may have increased even further.

However, what this data does highlight is that the impending changes to JobSeeker could create increased divergence between incomes and housing costs for some of Australia’s most vulnerable households. While these rental markets may be increasing in aggregate, housing stress, and even homelessness, may be faced by individuals whose livelihoods have been impacted by COVID-19.

While changes to JobSeeker are unlikely to impact the housing market, the welfare reduction could greatly disrupt housing situations for many.

Eliza Owen is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic
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Will changes to JobSeeker impact the housing market? CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
On the 25th of March, real estate agents were temporarily banned from hosting open property inspections and on-site auctions.
The ban resulted in changes to the auction process, which went from on-site to online. These changes are reflected in some startling data points in the auction results. Below is a summary of typical auction outcomes before and after auction bans were put in place.
The biggest stand-out in the data is an increase in properties withdrawn from auction. From the week ending 29th of March, to the week ending 3rd of May, the portion of scheduled auction events withdrawn averaged 45.8% across the combined capital cities market. This is about 8 times the 5-year average rate of withdrawn properties prior to COVID-19, which was 5.7%.
While withdrawn properties increased, the total number of scheduled auctions came down in the weeks after the nation-wide lockdown. This partially reflects vendors and agents adapting to the private treaty sale method, or adapting to online or over-thephone auctions. As a result, the withdrawn rate has since come down to 26.4%. The decline in auction volumes was also partly attributable to the Easter long weekend, which typically sees very low levels of listing, buying and selling activity
The clearance rate for the combined capital cities reached a record low (excluding January results which are seasonally impacted) of 30.2% in the week ending April 19th. This has since stabilised to 47.5% for the week ending 3rd of May.
The dramatic drop-off in the clearance rate was largely because CoreLogic counts a ‘withdrawn’ property as a non-sale. Meanwhile, 17.1% of scheduled auctions were passing in after the on-site auction ban was introduced.
Ultimately, most of the decline in the clearance rate can be explained through an engineered slowing of auctions. This is important to note, because clearance rates and changes in home values have historically been closely correlated.
At face value, the sharp fall in clearance rates implies housing values could follow a similar trend, however there is a good chance the relationship has at least temporarily disconnected due to the high withdrawal rate dragging the clearance rate to artificial lows.
Will the re-introduction of auctions have an impact on the residential market?
As open inspections are gradually reintroduced across the country, and onsite auctions re-commence in NSW, it is worth considering what impact, if any, this would have on the volume of transactions and price levels. CoreLogic estimates that the number of transactions has dropped about 40% over April, while prices held relatively firm.
Having multiple, potential buyers inspect property would increase productivity for agents, potentially enabling more stock to come to market.
Public auctions may expose buyers to their competition, which in a market where prices are rising, could induce people to make higher bids and become more competitive.But in the current market, consumer confidence is recovering from the lowest levels since the early 90’s recession, and prices are likely to start falling.
In Melbourne, where 46% of all capital city auctions were held in the 2019 calendar year, values already showed a 0.3% decline over April. This means the auction method of sale may be less popular with vendors and agents.
The easing of restrictions on auctions comes as the ABS reports that paid employment positions have fallen 7.5% across Australia, and total wages paid has decreased 8.2%.
Ultimately, being able to look at property, and bid publicly on property, does not increase capacity to buy property. The real estate industry is more likely to see a recovery when other sectors return to normal operations, and consumer sentiment lifts from its current lows.
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Understanding the auction trends during Covid-19 pandemic: Eliza Owen

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The HomeBuilder scheme announced in early June is intended to boost activity in the construction sector.
Dwelling construction is expected to see a lagged decline in activity off the back of COVID-19, as the recently recovering trend in dwelling approvals began to slip in April, led by a decline in unit approvals.
However, the $25,000 incentive for building a new home, or renovating an established one, comes with a set of extensive eligibility criteria.
Part of the eligibility for the renovation component of the scheme is that properties must be owner-occupied, and not exceed more than $1.5 million in value.
So where are the most owner-occupied properties under $1.5 million? 
Using CoreLogic’s extensive property database, we have put together a count of properties by region. The count of properties are those that we estimate are owner-occupied, and have a high confidence valuation of less than $1.5 million.
The top and bottom 10 regions by number of these properties is listed below.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/6/9/PP%20CL%20JUNE%2011.JPG" alt="">
The list also includes the median dwelling value for all properties across the region of measurement (not just the owner-occupied properties valued below 1.5 million), and a rough estimate of the portion of all family households that are below the $200,000 income limit for the HomeBuilder scheme.
These additional data points are not factored into the count of properties generated, but provide some context around typical market values and household income.
What to make of the data
The data suggests that the highest number of owner-occupied properties is located in the Melbourne - South East region, which spans from Mount Waverly out to Bunyip. In fact, there are four Melbourne regions that have over 100,000 owner-occupied properties estimated to be valued under $1.5 million.
These regions represent the fringe of the metropolitan area, and include some relatively low income areas compared to the inner-city regions of Melbourne.
The Perth - North West region has the second highest volume of properties. The Perth - North West region spans from part of Glendalough, up to the Yeal Nature Reserve in the north. The ‘Bottom 10’ list of regions reflects one of two characteristics.
For Sydney’s Northern Beaches and Eastern Suburbs, many properties surpass the $1.5 million property value cap to qualify for a renovation grant. For parts of outback and regional Australia, there is just a low population of dwellings.
Even where dwellings fall well below the $1.5 million threshold for a renovation grant, many of these owner occupiers will not take up the homebuilder incentive for renovations.
In fact, CoreLogic estimates there are about 4.4 million owner-occupied properties across Australia with a high confidence valuation below $1.5 million, but the federal government estimates the scheme may only support about 7,000 renovations.
While part of this is the income cap put on the scheme, it is also due to the high value of renovations that is set in the eligibility criteria. The renovations qualifying for the HomeBuilder Scheme must be worth between $150,000 and $750,000.
For areas where dwelling prices and incomes are relatively low, this may lead to owners over-capitalising on renovations, where they cannot recoup the cost of upgrades to the property.
ELIZA OWEN is CoreLogic's <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/early-market-indicators-show-first-signs-housing-market-slowdown?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=20200420_propertypulse" target="_blank">head of research</a>
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HomeBuilder, where are the most owneroccupied dwellings below $1.5 million? CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The start of the Perth dwelling market recovery comes at an unfortunate time. In early 2020, the Perth dwelling market had four consecutive months of dwelling value increases, which is the longest stretch of capital growth since 2014.
The Perth dwelling market has a long road to recovery. By the end of April, the house market in Perth was -19.1% below its peak value at June 2014. Unit values have taken a larger hit, down -26.9% below the record high at July 2013.
Prior to COVID-19, most indicators for Western Australia were moving into an upswing. Unemployment had fallen from 6.9% to 5.2%, jobs growth was trending higher, population growth had bounced back to the highest level since 2014, housing supply was contained, and state final demand crept above the decade average.
But instead of momentum continuing from the trend seen at the start of the year, the onset of COVID-19 places it at the cusp of another downswing.
According to the 28-day rolling change in the daily hedonic index, Perth dwelling values have started to fall again. However, value falls have been mild at -0.2%. So far, Melbourne has seen the largest decline in property values in the wake of COVID-19, but even in Melbourne the change is less than 1%.
Weekly payroll data from the ABS, which provides an early preview of labour force conditions, shows job losses across WA have been slightly less severe than that across the rest of the country. The decline in payroll jobs across the state was 5.8% between the 14th of March and 2nd of May, as opposed to 7.3% Australia wide.
Perth has less exposure to industry sectors that have been heavily impacted by COVID-19, with 8.6% of the local workforce employed with the accommodation and food services and arts and recreation services sectors, compared with 9.1% nationally.
Despite heighted economic uncertainty, consumer sentiment levels have been improving. This is in line with a flattening of the curve and relaxation in social distancing policies, especially those specific to housing, new listing numbers are trending higher from their record lows.
Importantly, total listing numbers haven’t trended higher and are at the lowest level in ten years for this time of the year.
The trend towards a rise in new listings and consistently low total listings implies newly listed stock is being absorbed quickly by the market. As of late May, total listings were down 34.7% on where they were at the equivalent period in 2019.
Total listings across Perth counted in the 28 days to May 24th were just 13,962. Though this is a continued headwind to the real estate sector, it may be preserving stability in dwelling values.
What was once a drag on property could be a source of market stability
The strong link between mining and prosperity across WA created boom and bust conditions between 2011 and 2019. This extended to the property market. As mining investment declined significantly following a steel glut in China, job losses and resident departures across the state have left values in a downswing for years.
According to industry reporting, 2020 was the year mining investment would move through a trough, creating more jobs, and subsequent housing demand across WA. In fact, we were already seeing improving labour market and demographic trends through late 2019 and early 2020.
The past few weeks have seen an increasingly optimistic outlook for the mining sector because of a recovery in the Chinese economy. Some high frequency indicators such as coal consumption, traffic congestion and home sales suggest economic activity across China is at 90% of where it was pre-COVID-19.
Unlike recent tensions over trade in beef and barley, China is actually working to reduce barriers to iron ore imports, which is a major source of revenue for WA mining. The reason for rising iron ore demand is that Chinese steel producers expect a rise in government stimulus and infrastructure to spur production (which uses iron ore as an input).
This has contributed to a relatively strong rise in the value of iron ore and plans from some of Australia’s largest miners to boost production. Even without the relatively strong position of mining export commodities, work on mine sites may have been buoyed by long-term contracts and the relatively high liquidity of mining companies.
The mining sector has not been completely untouched by COVID-19. Some operations have been suspended, or capacity has been reduced in an effort to reduce the threat of infection at work sites. This is reflected in mining sector payroll job losses across WA, of 6.4% between the 14th of March and the 2nd of May.
However, mining companies remain optimistic. BHP signalled steel production over 2020 may even be slightly higher than in 2019 if a second outbreak of COVID-19 could be avoided.
Renewed vitality in the mining sector, and the subsequent boost to economic activity, is likely to provide some insulation in demand for the Perth property market. This would make the impending downturn less severe than it may otherwise have been.
Another key factor that should support housing demand across Perth is the sheer affordability of housing. At the end of April 2020, the median value of a house was recorded at just over $465,000 which was the lowest of any capital city.
The blend of affordable housing options and the expectation for more resilient economic conditions is a good recipe for Perth’s housing market to outperform.
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia for CoreLogic
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The interrupted upswing in Perth: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Amid COVID-19, much attention has been given to weaker rental market conditions. But as with buying and selling property, market conditions vary substantially among regions. 
New data estimates from CoreLogic, calculating the portion of rental stock advertised, shows further variation in the performance of rental markets across different capital cities.  The percentage of rental housing advertised rose over the month of May in Sydney and Melbourne, while declining across the rest of the capital city regions. 4.5% of the total rental stock across Sydney was advertised over May, up from 4.3% in April. The portion of stock advertised across Melbourne saw an even larger jump, from 3.2% of listings advertised in April, to 3.6% of properties over May. While 3.6% may sound small, it represents a total rent listing uplift of more than 3,000 across Melbourne, up to about 27,000 properties for rent over the month. This corresponds to a rise in vacancies, and falling rental prices, particularly in inner-city Sydney and Melbourne.  How is rental stock on market measured?  The calculation of rental stock on market is derived by dividing total rental listings in a month by the estimated rental stock in an area.  An increase in the portion of stock on market suggests higher vacancies and a looser rental market, which would coincide with falling rent prices. However, it could also be a function of a change in the ‘denominator’ – ie, the size of the rental market is reduced while listings are steady.  CoreLogic has a ‘static’ estimate of the portion of properties that are rented. To get a dynamic indication of rental stock, the portion of dwellings estimated to be rentals was interpolated between the rental tenure reported at the 2016 census, and the latest CoreLogic imputation of the portion of rental stock. So it assumes there is a linear movement in the portion of rental properties from 2016 to 2020. A summary of the rental stock on market is presented below. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/6/22/RENTAL%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/22/RENTAL%201.jpg" alt="">
 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2020/6/22/RENTAL%202.jpg" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2020/6/22/RENTAL%202.jpg" alt=""> 
Why is stock piling up in Sydney and Melbourne and not elsewhere?  One of the big drivers of demand for rental accommodation is overseas migration. Most people that come to Australia from overseas, whether they are a skilled migrant, a temporary visa visitor or a refugee, will rent when they first come to Australia. ABS data on migration suggests that Sydney and Melbourne received over 70,000 net overseas migrants over 2018-19, which is far higher than the other capital cities. This may be why an increasing amount of properties across the cities are sitting vacant.  Another factor contributing to less rental demand could relate to the predominance of Sydney and Melbourne for foreign student numbers. With foreign student numbers falling by close to 100% compared with a year ago, along with domestic students largely studying from home, rental demand from tertiary students has been depleted.  New South Wales and Victoria have also seen, by far, the largest number of investors relative to other states.  According to ABS housing finance data, almost two thirds (65%) of investment loans over the past ten months were in Australia’s two largest states.  Investor activity contributes to rental supply. When paired with the large number of units that have been built over the past few years, many of which are rentals, and it’s clear that rental supply has increased more in Sydney and Melbourne relative to the other cities.   Higher supply levels against a backdrop of weaker demand is a recipe for lower rents. The steady level of advertised stock across the ACT came amid very little change to advertised stock levels and total rental stock levels. Declines in the rate of advertised rental stock in May across other cities were all due to a decline in the total listings count over the month.  In some areas, this could be a continuation of steady market conditions. The advertised stock levels suggest that rental markets have been gradually tightening in the lead up to COVID-19. 
Perth in particular saw the portion of advertised stock decline over 200 basis points in the year to May, as both total rent listings, and the number of total rental properties declined. It may be the case that investors withdrawing from the market, where the property was sitting vacant for a long time, has helped to tighten rental conditions.  
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research for Australia at CoreLogic  
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Rental stock on market data shows Sydney and Melbourne markets loosen over May: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
The July CoreLogic index results show the Melbourne property market is the worst capital city performer since the onset of COVID-19. June marked the third consecutive month of value falls across the city. This sees values down -2.3% from the previous quarter, when the market hit a record high. 
The results may be surprising, particularly when considering that the Sydney growth rate, which often moves quite closely with Melbourne property, was less than half this rate in the same period (at -0.8%). Several factors may explain why Melbourne in particular has experienced a more rapid decline.
Melbourne has sometimes ‘led’ cycles, and has often been more volatile
Data suggests that the Melbourne market has experienced a turn in its market before others. This was evident in the most recent upswing, where Sydney and Melbourne saw peak growth rates around November 2019, while other capital cities continued to see a more moderate but accelerating growth rate.
A longer-term view suggests it is not uncommon for Melbourne to outpace capital growth in Sydney, or to see deeper rates of decline.
The divergence is particularly evident through the 2010-2012 downturn, following a substantial over-performance from Melbourne during the post-GFC stimulus fuelled growth phase.
The most recent upswing before COVID-19 also saw Melbourne growth rates peak higher than in Sydney. The Melbourne quarterly growth rate peaked at 6.4%, compared with 6.2% across Sydney.
Cyclically then, it is not unreasonable to see Melbourne values slip at a greater rate than other capital cities.
Research also suggests that property markets where incomes are higher, households are more indebted and investor activity is higher can also be more sensitive to changes in economic conditions. This has been consistently evident in the upper quartile of values across the Melbourne market, which had the strongest value increases amid the last upswing, and are currently showing the largest falls.
High levels of investment are also evident in the Melbourne market, which may be contributing to volatility, though this is present in Sydney too.
ABS finance data shows investor lending has comprised an average 32.3% of total mortgage lending across Victoria for the past 5 years.
This is higher than most other states and territories.
Given that Melbourne has also experienced higher growth rates before the onset of COVID, and may be approaching a trough more quickly, Melbourne may not be the ‘worst performer’ over the entire cycle, but just based on a snapshot view of the past couple of months.
However, there are some key structural factors creating added downward pressure on Melbourne property prices.
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic
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Why is Melbourne property leading the downswing? CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
COVID-19 has brought about downside risks for the economy and housing market.
A 0.3% decline in March GDP confirmed a technical recession is underway in Australia, total wages paid fell 5.4% between mid-March and early May, and Australian dwelling market values saw the first month-on-month decline since June 2019. But one surprising sign of stabilising emerged in May.
Home sales have risen, with home owners testing the market, and new listings are rising. In fact, buyer demand is outweighing the volume of new listings.
 Strong absorption of new listings over May
This absorption can be observed across new and total listings data.
CoreLogic counts an advertised property as a ‘new’ listing if it has not previously been seen on the market in the past 72 days.
Total listings are the sum of new and re-listed stock for sale on the market. The count of new and total listings are typically reported in rolling 28-day periods.
In the 28-days to 31st of May, new listings rose 22.4% on the previous period, but total listings fell -2.9%. This means that even as more new stock came onto the market, buyer activity offset the additional stock.
This is an especially important trend to follow at the moment. As Australians face record high levels of housing debt, job and income losses could lead to a rise in urgent or distressed sales. The latest financial stability review outlined that for each percentage point rise in unemployment, there has typically been an 80 basis point rise in the rate of mortgage arrears.
If a large volume of distressed properties are listed simultaneously, this could put downward pressure on property values and make it harder to recoup equity from distressed sales.
This is largely why banks have offered ‘repayment holidays’ on mortgage repayments. APRA data suggests 60% of bank loans and advances are in housing, so a decline in property values affects bank profits and capital.
Another way to assess the uptake of new listings is to consider the ratio of sales to new listings. This measure is found by dividing sales volumes by the number of new listings, and has been used as a leading indicator of property price movements.
The ratio increased from 1.1 in April to 1.3 over May, coinciding with an estimated increase in sales volumes of 20.4% across the combined capital cities over the month. This is the highest sales to new listing ratio in at least 10 years, though sales and listings volumes are still at very low levels.
ELIZA OWEN is CoreLogic's <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/early-market-indicators-show-first-signs-housing-market-slowdown?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=newsletter&amp;utm_campaign=20200420_propertypulse" target="_blank">head of research</a>
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Buyers are surprisingly responsive to rise in May listings: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
When governments rolled out international travel restrictions, closed state borders and banned unnecessary travel as well as closing pubs, restaurants and casinos along with a variety of other facilities it was clear that the tourism and hospitality sectors would be some of the hardest-hit sectors.
However, it is still striking that 70% of food and accommodation employers reported a reduction in staff hours.
Food and accommodation employs about 8% of Australians, or about 1.2 million people. This is where a more granular view of employment data can highlight risks to the property market.
The detailed quarterly survey data provides insight into what industry residents work in, at the SA4 level.
The February edition suggests that most food and accommodation workers are highly concentrated in Sydney’s Inner West, followed by the Sunshine Coast and the Coffs Harbour-Grafton region.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/9/CL%20food.png" alt="">
The risk to demand-side factors for property is particularly susceptible in areas of high employment in food and accommodation, as the sector typically has more ‘precarious’ work arrangements. About 62% of those employed in the sector are employed on a part time basis, compared with the broader workforce, where 32% of staff are employed part time.
Interestingly, some of these areas also have more precarious housing arrangements, with higher portions of rental housing than ownership.
In Sydney’s Inner West, 35.4% of households are estimated to be renting households, as opposed to 31% nationally. This means that lesser hours in food and accommodation services may affect property values indirectly, because value estimates may be reconsidered based on rental return.
For Hobart, where 9.3% of the population are employed in food and accommodation, the CoreLogic home value index shows there has already been a drop in dwelling values, of -0.2% in March.
However, it is worth noting that the Hobart market was arguably due for correction even before the onset of COVID-19, having seen annualised capital growth of 7.7% each year for the past 5 years to March 2020.
Therefore, even though high concentrations of food and accommodation employment are indicative of greater risk to the property market, ongoing assessment of price and employment shifts will be necessary to isolate the full impact of COVID-19 on values. 
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic
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Food and accommodation work is more precarious for housing and employment: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Amid an extraordinary economic slowdown, the Australian economy is heading for its first recession in almost 30 years.
Indicators suggest this fall in demand is starting to weigh on the property market. But a frequent stream of monetary, fiscal and social policies are being rolled out in an attempt to soften the blow to the broader economy, which will also help to insulate housing markets.
Over March, the JobSeeker payment was increased by $550 per fortnight, effectively doubling the highest allowance. Additionally, on the 30th of March, a $130 billion wage subsidy payment was announced, which would see employers receive $1,500 per employee per fortnight.
For eligible employers and employees, workers would receive a gross wage supplement of $1,500 before tax on a fortnightly basis.
The game-changing package has led Westpac economists to reduce their forecast for peak unemployment from 17.0%, down to 9.0%.
This will ultimately lessen downward pressure on housing demand, as more people are able to retain their job during and after the COVID-19 shutdown.
How many rentals are ‘affordable’ on the JobKeeper package?
The JobKeeper subsidy may also see fewer households fall into housing affordability stress.
Housing affordability stress is a situation where households expend more than 30% of income on housing costs, such as rent. To understand how many households may be better off, it is worth considering how many rentals are currently able to be serviced on 30% of the JobKeeper payment.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/6/TABLE%201.png" alt="">
Table 1 (pictured above) shows the portion of the rental market in capital city and regional areas that could be serviced by an individual using just 30% of the JobKeeper or JobSeeker payments (i.e, what portion of the rental market can be rented for $450 per fortnight, or $330 per fortnight).
In considering typical household composition, Table 2 (pictured below) reflects the same analysis for a couple both receiving a benefit.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/4/6/TABLE%202.png" alt="">
The analysis does not take into account tax on the JobKeeper payment, or voluntary employer top-ups of the JobKeeper amount.
The data highlights that the JobKeeper payments significantly increase the portion of affordable private rentals in Australia.
Flat payments are proportionately beneficial for renting households where rents are cheaper, such as in Regional Tasmania and South Australia.
Incidentally, these are areas that may be more severely impacted by the economic slowdown in terms of the concentration of the labour force in agriculture, food service, tourism and accommodation.
But even with the relatively small portion of rental properties being affordable elsewhere, it is likely that current social distancing measures would see less discretionary spending, enabling a higher portion of income to be used in servicing rent.
Additionally, further protections for renters are in the works. On the 29th of March, federal and state leaders announced a 6 month moratorium on residential and commercial tenant evictions, for households in financial stress who cannot meet payments because of the coronavirus impact.
At a press conference the next day, Prime Minister Morrison made an allusion to further rental assistance, such as a rent guarantee, but such details were “still being worked through”. This would ease pressure on renters to service their full rent commitments, however the impact on landlords remains uncertain. Another note on this data is that it reflects rental valuations as of early April.
As income and job prospects decline, the private rental market will likely see a downwards adjustment, with landlords of vacant properties potentially having to lower rents in order to meet the market.
A final takeaway from this data may be that now is an opportune time to explore more social and affordable housing supply.
As well as added benefits to the construction sector, the government could look to create housing supply that compliments the payments being offered to renters. 
ELIZA OWEN is the Head of Research Australia at CoreLogic
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Eliza Owen

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